Kentucky Derby 2026 handicapping tips from CJ's Better Derby Betting

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History doesn’t favor Albus in Kentucky Derby

Benson liked Albus, a Riley Mott-trained horse, for the bottom of a superfecta, but the panel raised some concerns about the colt’s pedigree and maturity. There’s potential there, but because of some immaturity, Albus isn’t a favored horse in the race. DeRosa has Albus in the bottom 10% of the horses in the field.

But what sets Albus back even more is that he’s the only horse in the field that has raced at Churchill Downs but hasn’t won there. Since 1992, Kentucky Derby horses that had raced at Churchill Downs but didn’t win coming into the Run for the Roses are 0 for 46, according to DeRosa.

Chad Brown’s confidence speaks volumes about Emerging Market

Chad Brown has been known to be a conservative trainer. He’s not opposed to pulling one of his horses if he doesn’t believe they’re ready. That’s what has created some interest in Emerging Market. Although the 3-year-old colt has only two previous starts, he won both, the most recent being the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. There’s a belief that he can still be competitive in the field despite his inexperience.

"This is an extremely difficult task,” Stone said. “... Perhaps the Derby is one race too soon, but perhaps not.”

Confidence in The Puma dwindling

The Puma shipped late and didn’t arrive until Tuesday. And his only work was walking around shed row despite initial reports that he would get some track work in. While interviewing trainer Gustavo Delgado, Benson picked up on some reluctance in the horse, saying that the level of confidence “wasn’t what I was looking for.” Stone echoed the sentiments.

“The interview they did the day before, they were beaming with confidence. They were really excited to be here,” Stone said. “... Then the interview today was now, we’re to the point where we have to get lucky, make sure everything goes well. Reading between the lines here, playing psychologist, if you will. But it was enough for us to mention it here. Put it that way.”

Further Ado, Chief Wallabee are the favorites of the panel

DeRosa named Further Ado and Fulleffort as his favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. He noted that Further Ado has the highest combined margin of victory at Keeneland since 1991 after winning the Bluegrass Stakes six months after breaking his maiden at the Lexington track. Stone, too, is intrigued by Further Ado, who he said reminded him of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro because of his upside. He picked Further Ado and Fulleffort as his favorites.

Benson named Chief Wallabee as her Derby winner, while Frakes stuck with The Puma as his pick.

Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit atacubit@gannett.comand follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2026 handicapping tips from CJ's Better Derby Betting