Kentucky Derby 2026 odds and picks: Betting lines, favorites, expert prediction, post positions

So Happy (6-1): “This is one of the years where it was Bob Baffert with this horse from California, it probably would be the favorite. Mike Smith is like the LeBron James of horse racing, he’s the longest tenured jockey of all-time. This will be his 29th Derby appearance. Baffert comes in much quieter this year, and this is the horse from California. I presume Friday or Saturday you’re going to see double digits on this guy. Where do you think the best horses are coming from this year? If you believe that Southern California has the best horses, the price is right. It would be a heck of a story if Smith wins at this age.” — Gold

“I have decided to take a dim view of the form of Santa Anita Derby. I may be dead wrong about this, but it was ruled as a fast race and I just didn’t think it looked like good form, so I‘m going fade the horses from California.” — Fornatale

Commandment (8-1): “For a horse who has won four in a row, he seems to be overlooked a little bit. He won the Florida Derby by a nose, not flashy but getting it done. The price will be solid on him because he seems to be overshadowed by Renegade or The Puma, so you’ll get a good price. One of the question marks will be the jockey, who has never ridden him before. He knows the track, but hasn’t ridden the horse before. Sometimes jockeys make the right decisions, sometimes they don’t. Trainer Brad Cox is a Louisville guy and knows the track.” — Gold

“Commandment is very interesting. Definitely one of the leading contenders, made out really well on the draw as well. The odd thing about him is that seemingly some of the top riders had the chance to ride him in the Derby and ended up elsewhere. I’m not sure how much that matters, though. This horse has good form coming from those Florida races, looks fast enough. If I was to quibble, there are some other horses at bigger prices I like a little more.” — Fornatale

LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - APRIL 29: The Puma takes to the track during morning workouts ahead of the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 29, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)

The Puma (5-1): “What’s funny is that The Puma had the lead in the Florida Derby, but lost to Commandment – but gotten better in each start. He’s become a hot horse and he’s as gone further and further distance, it’s been a plus for him. Beat Further Ado, which another horse that has gotten attention, so that’s a big plus. Usually horses need to win their first career race before facing elite company, he did that in a stake race, so that’s a big plus for him. He’s got a ton of talent. He didn’t race as a two-year old. Only two horses have won the Derby doing that — Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Odds are against those horses because of that, but he’s a horse on the rise. Let’s see where his odds go on Friday.” — Gold

“Also comes out of the Florida Derby and has a profile that looks a lot like Mage, who won in 2023. Absolutely on my list but I worry about him being a little bit overbet, and my new concern looking at advanced data – stride length and cadence – he might not be at his best going 10 furlongs. If his price gets up to 12-1, 15-1 he’ll absolutely be on my card.” — Fornatale

Kentucky Derby best bets

“I would use Commandment. I’m a believer in Florida horses, so Chief Wallabee or Commandment on top, with The Puma. I would also include Emerging Market as a potential long shot, he’s coming out of Louisiana with Chad Brown, but he’s only had two races in his career. He’s 15-1 on the line now, but he’ll probably be a bigger price than that.”

“If you’re looking for a long-shot to come charging out of the clouds I was looking at Fulleffort, the 20 who will start at the 19 because of a scratch. He comes from behind and typically there’s enough speed up front to set things up, and if you get 30-1 on him, he’s won 3 of 7 races – never on real dirt, though. Price will be right now. Him and Emerging Market are the two longer shots that can get on the board. Payout will be great because there’s 20 horses. It’s a great race to bet. — Gold

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“We talked about two of the horses that beat Chief Wallabee, but I think there’s a case to be made Chief Wallabee can reverse that form and win. He’s so lightly raced that he has room for improvement. And Bill Mott is a trainer that I trust implicitly to deliver his best performance on the biggest day. He’s worked out really well, and when you look at biometric data, he might have the most potential of any horse in the field.”

“I’m convinced that the Japanese are going to win a Kentucky Derby in the next 10 years, so for a longer shot I like a lot of what I’ve seen from Danon Bourbon. He has the right blend of speed and stamina to get a good trip in the Derby and might be able to outrun his odds.” — Fornatale