Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, post positions, date: Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado expert picks revealed

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (6-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. Although Commandment has been on a roll, winning his last four races, he was trained by Brad H. Cox, who has just one Kentucky Derby win in his career. That came in 2021, when Mandaloun was declared the winner. Mandaloun actually crossed the finish line second, but was elevated to champion after Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned substance.

Cox, 46, also has just one other U.S. Triple Crown race win. That also came in 2021, when Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes. Cox has registered over 2,500 wins in his career. Despite that, Demling sees value elsewhere. See who to back at SportsLine.

Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 9-2 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It's been a mixed bag for Kentucky Derby favorites recently as this seven-year drought without a victory immediately followed a six-year run (2013-18) in which the favored horse won every year. Renegade has won both of his starts as a 3-year-old, including the G1 Arkansas Derby in late March. This comes after going winless as a juvenile across three races.

Renegade was sired by Into Mischief, who won his lone start on dirt at the 2007 CashCall Futurity but never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Saddled by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has the most experienced trainer in Kentucky Derby history. Pletcher's had 65 starters at the Run for the Roses, which is 14 more than any other trainer. Two of those horses have prevailed at Churchill Downs for Pletcher, but none of his last 13 Derby starters have finished in the money. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to claim up to $400 in bonus bets:

Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (5-1), who won at Churchill Downs late in his 2-year-old season. That win came in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and the horse followed that up with a runner-up in his 3-year-old debut. He got back into the winner's circle in his last race, taking the G1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 4.

That gives Further Ado 28 days in between his last race and the Derby. Each of the last six Derby winners had at least 35 days of rest, with them averaging 38.5 days of rest. While this four-week turnaround is going against recent Derby history for winners, it's a time frame that the horse and his connections are familiar with. That's because Further Ado's Blue Grass victory came on 28 days of rest. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds