Khamzat Vs. Strickland Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

While Khamzat’s ascendence to gold and greatness has been widely expected, public confidence in Strickland was low a year ago. After Strickland lost twice to “DDP,” it was unclear how the 35-year-old ex-champ would respond. Rather than fade away, Strickland put on a career-best performance to derail Anthony Hernandez’s rise to contention, stopping the “American Khamzat” in the third round to earn this title collision.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Khamzat vs. Strickland Betting Odds

• Khamzat Chimaev victory: -590
• Khamzat Chimaev via TKO/KO/DQ: +460
• Khamzat Chimaev via submission: +100
• Khamzat Chimaev via decision: +330
• Sean Strickland victory: +410
• Sean Strickland via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Sean Strickland via submission: +4000
• Sean Strickland via decision: +900
• Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

How Chimaev Wins

Chimaev is quite possibly the best wrestler we’ve ever seen in mixed martial arts (MMA), which is quite the statement given we’ve had Olympic medalists compete inside the Octagon. Still, nobody else in the history of the sport has a legitimately unstoppable double-leg shot that everybody knows is coming in the opening seconds! Chimaev pairs his explosive shot with brutal strangles, catching his opponents trying to stand and finishing in an instant.

On the feet, Chimaev definitely hits hard but has never been particularly tested.

This is not the matchup to try out kickboxing, as Strickland has a unique style that gives even very experienced strikers fits. “Borz” wins this fight on the canvas by bowling Strickland over early on and either landing the submission or locking down top position. Strickland is an excellent scrambler, so the focus really has to be on establishing positional control and using submission threats to keep Strickland grounded.

If and when this fight wears on, expect both men to tire — that’s the nature of a grinding wrestling match. When that happens, “Borz” has to maintain his composure and manage his gas tank appropriately. He can afford to strike with Strickland a bit in the later rounds, jabbing and moving to recover energy and blast another double-leg. He just can’t panic while a little fatigued, as Strickland will be looking to take advantage.

How Strickland Wins

Strickland is a high-volume boxer with some of the most effective defense in the sport. It looks a little odd, and there are definite weaknesses to his approach, but Strickland’s overall success in frustrating his opposition cannot be denied. He’s also tough to take down and even harder to pin, which is what makes this such an interesting style clash.

The key to defeating Chimaev is to make him work. No amount of cardio training will change the fact that “Borz” is built to sprint. His fighting style is built off spectacular explosions of output, which means there will be a slowdown over time. Even in his horribly uneventful win of du Plessis, “Borz” still tired enough to get taken down by the South African in the fifth.

The mistake du Plessis made — the one Strickland cannot afford to make — was allowing Chimaev to rest from top position. It’s dangerous to scramble against Chimaev and his nasty chokes, but that’s a risk that must be taken. When put on his back, Strickland has to keep the fight moving while watching his neck, because that’s how he makes Chimaev vulnerable in the latter half of the fight.

When Strickland does get an inch, he has to aggressively take advantage, not just jab and teep.

Khamzat vs. Strickland Prediction

I have doubted both men in the past and been wrong more often than not. I still do not trust Khamzat’s gas tank, a flaw that has yet to matter because nobody has actually pushed him in a five-round fight. Strickland theoretically has the tools to do so, which makes this feel like a closer fight than the odds indicate.

Unfortunately, I also do not trust Strickland’s ability to capitalize late. For all his bluster, he’s not a great finisher and is prone to letting fights slip away from him. If Khamzat wins a couple rounds then fatigues, will Strickland actually turn it up and take over? Or, will he snap some jabs, let Khamzat recover, and get taken down again at the start of the next round?

I’m expecting the latter. Strickland wins a round or two in the back half of the fight, but will ultimately be too tired or too unwilling to open up to actually force the upset.

Prediction: Khamzat via decision

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