Lakers vs Thunder best props for Game 1: Prediction markets for NBA Playoffs

A major storyline heading into this clash is the availability of key stars, as both squads will be navigating significant absences. The Lakers will be without elite playmaker Luka Dončić, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, while the Thunder are missing dynamic wing Jalen Williams, who is also out with a hamstring strain. With these high-profile injuries, the spotlight will shine even brighter on James and Gilgeous-Alexander as they look to carry their respective teams to victory in this pivotal showdown.

Lakers vs Thunder best props for Game 1

The implied win probabilities heavily favor the Thunder heading into this matchup. With an 87% chance of securing the victory, the numbers suggest strong confidence in the home team's ability to defend their court. The Lakers face a tough challenge, holding just a 14% probability of pulling off the road upset.

Thunder vs Lakers stats and matchup dynamics

When evaluating how these two squads stack up against each other, recent head-to-head history reveals glaring mismatches. Over their last five meetings, Oklahoma City has operated at an elite level, averaging an imposing 127.6 points per game to highlight a massive offensive advantage. Defensively, the Thunder have averaged 12.4 steals per game in those contests, ruthlessly capitalizing on a Lakers offense that has surrendered an average of 17.6 turnovers per game against them. Los Angeles has consistently struggled to find an answer for OKC's two-way pressure.

LeBron James is primed heading into this series opener, riding the momentum of an efficient 28-point showing in a 98-78 victory over the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been dominant throughout the postseason, averaging 33.8 points per game on elite efficiency.

The defining key matchup will take place on the perimeter. With Luka Dončić sidelined, James will be forced to handle the bulk of the playmaking duties against Oklahoma City's elite point-of-attack defenders, Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso. On the flip side, Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to slice through Los Angeles' interior defense will be crucial. It will test if the Lakers can finally patch the holes in a defense that allowed the Thunder to drop 139 and 123 points during their last two regular-season meetings in April.

Lakers vs Thunder injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Jalen Williams (SG): Out (Hamstring) - Williams is considered week-to-week with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain.
• Thomas Sorber (C): Out for Season (Knee) - Sorber is missing the 2025-2026 season due to a torn ACL.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Luka Dončić (PG): Out (Hamstring) - Dončić currently has no timeline to return to game action.

The absences of Luka Dončić and Jalen Williams leave massive voids for both squads. Dončić's elite playmaking is irreplaceable for the Lakers, placing a tremendous burden on the rest of the roster to initiate the offense. Meanwhile, the Thunder lose a critical two-way perimeter presence in Jalen Williams.

Lakers vs Thunder best player props for Game 1

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (50% on Polymarket)

SGA has been scorching hot this postseason, averaging 33.8 points per game on 55.1% shooting from the field. He's reached this number in three of his four playoff games so far, and with Jalen Williams out, expect an even larger share of the offensive burden to fall on his shoulders. The Lakers have struggled to contain Oklahoma City's offense in recent meetings, making this a high-confidence play.

2. LeBron James Over 7.5 Assists (49% on Polymarket)

James is averaging 8.3 assists per game this postseason and will be the primary ball-handler for every possession with Dončić unavailable. His assist-to-turnover ratio sits at 1.92, and he logged 50 total assists across six playoff games. Without another true point guard on the roster, James will be facilitating nearly everything for the Lakers' offense, making the over on assists a strong bet.

3. Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds (41% on Polymarket)

Holmgren is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game (1.2 offensive, 7.2 defensive) in the playoffs while playing over 30 minutes per contest. With Isaiah Hartenstein providing interior support but the Lakers' Deandre Ayton (10.8 rebounds per game) creating plenty of missed shots inside, there should be ample rebounding opportunities for Holmgren. His length and activity on the glass make this a solid play, especially with the Thunder likely controlling much of the game.

Lakers vs Thunder prediction for Tuesday

Both teams step onto the hardwood riding waves of recent success, but their paths to victory look vastly different. The Los Angeles Lakers arrive carrying the momentum of a balanced performance after dismantling the Houston Rockets in a decisive 98-78 victory. LeBron James commanded the floor in that matchup, leading Los Angeles with a vintage 28-point performance.

The Thunder counter with a terrifying offensive attack of their own. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's postseason form has been practically unstoppable: he is currently averaging an elite 33.8 points and 8.0 assists per game. While James is putting up incredible numbers to anchor the Lakers (23.2 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.2 rebounds per game), the absence of Luka Dončić leaves Los Angeles severely outgunned against a deep Oklahoma City rotation.

The statistical matchups heavily favor the home team. Oklahoma City's elite two-way play, anchored by Chet Holmgren inside and Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, creates a nightmare scenario for a shorthanded Lakers squad. Los Angeles will likely struggle to maintain the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace for four quarters without their primary point guard to relieve the pressure on James.

Expect the Lakers to keep things competitive early through James' sheer will and playmaking experience, but the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure and superior scoring depth should wear Los Angeles down in the second half. Given Oklahoma City's commanding home-court advantage and overwhelming recent scoring outbursts, the Thunder are poised to take the opening game of this series.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 118 - 104 Los Angeles Lakers