Let’s not press any panic buttons yet on Andrew Painter

Painter’s report presents some Rorschach test qualities for modern prospect evaluation. Both Jeffrey Paternostro and I saw him live last year and thought he was very good but not great from an eye-scouting perspective…A data-driven look at Painter will show him as a potential ace. His fastball velocity actually plays *up* due to carry and extension, and while he doesn’t have great visual command he fills up the top edges of the zone with pitches batters cannot drive and often cannot even make contact on. The breaking balls work well in concert with each other as a diving curve and sweeping slider—two distinct breaking balls in the same velocity band is a feature, not a bug, and those are two good breaking ball shapes—and the changeup may not be used often but has good potential. He sliced and diced through Low-A, High-A, and Double-A without any real challenge, and it’s not impossible that he makes the MLB rotation out of spring training—as a 19-year-old. Compare that to what see now: Since his return in the 2024 AFL, Painter’s stuff has moderately declined compared to 2022…While even this version of Painter is a *good* pitching prospect, there’s nothing special there to separate him from dozens of other pitchers with solid arm speed, a developing but underutilized changeup, and some capacity for spin. At the same time, we can’t fully ignore that this was his first full season back from Tommy John, and therefore it makes sense to build in a reasonable chance of further shape and command bouncebacks. Not the trajectory anyone was really look for in his career, but this is what happens when the return from that kind of surgery doesn’t happen in a linear fashion. As we’ve seen in his debut month, his stuff and command both look as though they are trying to get back to where once were, but it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. Does the ceiling that many were projecting for him even exist any longer? Maybe, maybe not. Is it fair to wonder if maybe the expectations of his ultimate ceiling should be throttled down? Absolutely. While it might be seen by some as another organizational failure to develop a front of the rotation starter from within, the fact is that the team does have Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo in place for at least the next five years to handle the top two spots in the rotation. Needing to have Painter be that frontline starter is no longer a necessity….but it still would be nice if he could get there. But let’s not hit the panic button yet on him. He’s still only 23 years old and has made seven appearances thus far in the majors. He does need to be better, which means he and the coaching staff need to figure out what is going wrong lately, particularly when it pertains to his fastball. However, there is plenty of time for him to adjust to whatever the league sees and become something better than what he has shown in his last two starts.