The Indiana Pacers face a crucial decision on May 10 regarding their first-round draft pick in the 2026 NBA Draft lottery, with a 52.1% chance of retaining it. If the pick falls to fifth or sixth, it will go to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of a previous trade.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 10: Jarace Walker #5 of the Indiana Pacers fouls DeMar DeRozan #10 of the Sacramento Kings on a shot with Jay Huff #32 of the Indiana Pacers during the first quarter at Golden 1 Center on March 10, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Kelley L Cox/Getty Images)
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INDIANAPOLIS â Just two days stand between the Indiana Pacers and their offseason-defining date. May 10 is the 2026 NBA Draft lottery, and the Pacers have a 52.1% chance of keeping their first-round draft pick.
If the lottery places the Pacers top selection inside the first four slots, Indiana will keep that draft pick. If it falls to fifth or sixth, the only other possible outcomes, it will be sent to the Los Angeles Clippers as a part of the trade that netted the Pacers center Ivica Zubac.
âWe were trying to protect our upside at the top of the draft mostly,â Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said of the trade and draft pick protections in February. The Pacers would also have kept the first rounder if it landed between 10 and 30, but that became irrelevant after the Pacers ended the season poorly.
The Indiana Pacers have a 52.1% chance of keeping their first-round draft pick in the 2026 NBA Draft lottery.
If the Pacers' draft pick falls to fifth or sixth, it will be sent to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the trade for Ivica Zubac.
The 2026 NBA Draft lottery for the Indiana Pacers is scheduled for May 10.
The Indiana Pacers acquired center Ivica Zubac in the trade that involves their draft pick.
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Now, the team has roughly a coin flip chance to hang on to their high draft selection this season. They have an offseason plan for any draft lottery outcome, but a top pick would be preferred. Any direction the Pacers go this summer will be determined by their lottery fate.
Buchanan had much more to say about the Pacers offseason during a recent interview on The Ride with JMV on 107.5 The Fan in Indianapolis. âWhen we made the trade, we knew there was risk involved just as there is in any other trade. But with the draft pick involved, youâve got to look at the finances of the situation and the scenario where you keep the pick, the scenario where we lose the pick. We felt that both scenarios provided opportunities to help our team be better next year,â he said. The Pacers eyes toward championship contention right now made the trade worth it, even with the draft-related risk. âWe feel like we have a team [that]⊠Weâre in that [Contention] mix when weâre healthy.â
Buchanan admitted that while long-term thinking is generally prudent, the Pacers have a window right now with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam on the roster. They want to go for it. Losing the top-four pick would hurt, but there are other opportunities for the team to get better.
âShould we lose the pick, thereâs other opportunities to improve our team through free agency. We still have trades. We gain a pick that we can use in the future for a trade. We felt like thereâs a way to improve our team either way with whatever the ping pong balls, however they fall for us. Weâre not putting all of our eggs into one basket, that 'Hey, if we donât keep this pick, itâs doom and gloom,â [thinking], because itâs not,â Buchanan said. âBecause thereâs other windows and other doors that open with that opportunity. If we do get the pick, obviously itâs a great opportunity to add a young player to this team. The core of it comes down to, Ivica [Zubac] is a great player. Weâve been a big believer, a big fan of him for a long time. This team has shown that itâs capable of doing some really special things, and we were missing a starting center that we felt could keep us in that mix.â
Buchanan and Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle have discussed the two directions the Pacers offseason could take. One is more draft focused, with the teamâs major addition obviously being a top-four pick in that case. The other way Indiana could go is into free agency. Thatâs far more likely if they lose their first-round selection. They could use various salary cap exceptions to add talent in that reality, though the roster would still be expensive and near the luxury tax or first apron.
But if the team isnât providing lip service about their belief that they have a contention window right now, they shouldnât care as much about those spending barriers. Rather, they should be focused on adding to the team, and in particular replacing some key roles theyâve lost in the last few seasons.
Kevin Pritchard speaks during a news conference Monday, May 1, 2017, in Indianapolis. Larry Bird resigned from his position as Indiana Pacers president of basketball operations. Pritchard is assuming Bird's position. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
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While the Pacers core remains intact, some of their better reserves have either taken deals elsewhere or been traded across the last few seasons. Zubac replaced Myles Turner, but since the Pacers first made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023-24, theyâve also lost the likes of Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson, Bennedict Mathurin, Doug McDermott, and Thomas Bryant. Along the way, most of those departures made sense for one reason or another â Jackson and Mathurin were traded as matching salary for Zubac, as an example. But the Pacers depth, a superpower in recent campaigns, has slowly dripped away.
That influences their needs in the offseason. âCan I say health? Does that count as a need?â Buchanan joked when asked about what the Pacers need next season. To his point: The Pacers had the second-most games lost due to injury and the most salary lost in player absences.
In terms of actual roster needs, Buchanan identified a few. The departure of Mathurin created a big hole for the teamâs second unit, and they have some other questions to answer.
âI think one thing this season revealed for us is the need for some scoring off our bench⊠Probably from the wing position. Losing (Mathurin), you lose some of that. But I think this team, we have some depth. We still have some holes to fill,â Buchanan began. Some of the projected top-four picks in the upcoming draft could fill that role, as could a free agent acquired using some of the Mid-Level Exception.
Most of the Pacers rotation seems fairly set. Their starting five from the 2025 NBA Finals â minus Turner, plus Zubac â seems fairly set. T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have obvious roles off the bench. A draft pick could be in the mix, as could one or both of Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker.
On the interior, Jay Huff currently projects to be the Pacers backup center. Buchanan did mention that position as a possible spot to look at in the offseason.
âI think you look at maybe the five position, do we have a backup center we feel comfortable with? We had (Huff) and (Micah Potter), both had good moments this year. Do we feel good about that position?â Buchanan wondered. Huffâs production given his contract is solid, and heâs never played with Haliburton. But his first season in Indiana was certainly up and down.
Buchanan also mused about the depth of the wing position on his roster, a natural thought with Johnny Furphy injured and Kobe Brown entering free agency. He also mentioned reserve point guard as a possible need â the Pacers cycled through many players in that role during the 2025-26 campaign.
Some of the teamâs needs may be filled by internal candidates. And they wonât have a ton of spending power in the offseason. But they will look to make improvements as contenders, and theyâll explore every avenue to make it happen. Including, yes, trading their first-round pick if the right opportunity appears.
âYouâve got to consider everything. If you have a pick up there, youâre looking at obviously who are the players on the board to pick from,â Buchanan began. âBut if we can find another player or multiple assets that help us with this team to try to compete for a championship, weâre going to consider everything on that.â
While there will be top-end stability for the Pacers, the offseason could come with changes to the rotation. How those changes look will be determined at Sundayâs draft lottery.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com