Match Preview: Brentford v Fulham

What has held the Whites back is the quality of their efforts on goal. Only Liverpool (28.8%) have fired a smaller percentage of their shots on target this season than Fulham (29.6%), who average 0.11xG per shot. These numbers contrast sharply with Brentford’s league-leading shot on target percentage of 37.4% and xG-per-shot figure of 0.17xG.

However, with Wilson chief among them, the Cottagers have several players capable of scoring from outside the box - Harrison Reed’s ballistic strike in a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in January a surefire contender for the Premier League’s Goal of the Season.

Only Aston Villa (14) and Bournemouth (11) have scored more goals from outside the 18-yard box than Fulham (9) this term - something Brentford will need to guard against.

Bees head coach Keith Andrews will relish the chance to pit himself against the wily Silva, and it will be fascinating to see how two of the Premier League’s more pragmatic sides - and coaches - line up on Saturday.

The data offers a glimpse into their usual tendencies. The Bees (36%) rank third in the Premier League for the share of forward passes played this season, while Fulham (31%) are more inclined to circulate the ball to open up passing lanes.

In a game shaped as much by adaptation as identity, however, those patterns may count for little - as both sides seek to counter the other’s strengths.

Scout Report

Dan Long, Sky Sports: Fulham's quest for a first European campaign since 2011/12 still very much alive

Fulham secured a third west London derby win in succession when they came from behind to beat Brentford 3-1 at Craven Cottage in September, but the high was short lived.

Marco Silva’s men lost four of the five Premier League games that followed and were 15th in the table by the time of the November international break, only one point above the relegation zone.

Cliché as it sounds, that pause came at just the right time. Otherwise, they could easily have slipped into a dangerous spiral.

Instead, they returned with wins against Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur - with the latter their first on the road in the league since the penultimate outing of 2024/25.

"I'm very proud of the boys,” said Silva after the victory over Spurs. “We have been really speaking about the games on the road, so it was very important for us to win. We knew that it was going to happen one day and we prepared ourselves again for that tonight.”

Fulham then showed incredible grit after going 5-1 down at home to Man City to bring it back to 5-4. “We probably deserved the fifth goal,” Silva reflected afterwards.

The Whites soon emerged as European contenders. A six-game unbeaten run that started in mid-December included wins over Burnley, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Chelsea, while a dramatic 97th-minute equaliser from Harrison Reed secured a point at home to Liverpool on 4 January.

The win over Chelsea three days later lifted Fulham to ninth and just three points behind Liverpool in fourth.

The quest for a first European campaign since 2011/12 is still very much alive going into the final weeks of the season, but the outlook could have been a lot more positive. Against Leeds on 17 January, they conceded the winning goal after 91 minutes, against Manchester United on 1 February it was the 94th and against Everton on 7 February it was the 83rd.

Those late lapses have proven costly, turning what could have been a genuine top-seven push into a more uncertain battle on the fringes, which looks more menacing given Aston Villa and Arsenal are up next after the trip to the Gtech. The story is far from over, but they can ill afford mistakes from here.

If they can force their way back into contention, they will have a solid chance of breaking their record Premier League points total of 54, which was set last term. Based on their current points-per-game average of 1.38, they will pick up another eight points and finish on 52, two short.

But there are 18 points up for grabs - and how many of those they take will most definitely define Fulham’s season.

In the Dugout

Marco Silva

Marco Silva passed 14 years in management in September and has now taken charge of almost 550 matches in Portugal, Greece and England.

After a playing career as a right-back in his home country, the Portuguese was appointed director of football at Estoril in 2011.

He was quickly thrust into his first role as leading man when the club endured an unfavourable start to the campaign and Vinícius Eutrópio was sacked.

Silva managed to turn the club’s fortunes around, winning the Liga de Honra - Portugal’s second tier - and cementing a return to the Primeira Liga after a seven-year exile.

In 2014, Silva signed a four-year deal at Sporting CP and went on to win the Taca de Portugal (the Portuguese Cup) but he lasted just over a year in charge.

Shortly after the cup win, the club produced a 400-page document where they detailed the reasoning for his dismissal, with one section claiming his failure to wear a club suit during a match partly justified the decision.

A title-winning season at Olympiacos came next, before he took on a fire-fighting job at relegation-threatened Hull City in January 2017.

Silva galvanised a Tigers team that included Harry Maguire and Andy Robertson but ultimately could not prevent the club dropping back into the Championship, and he resigned just under five months later.

That preceded time at Watford and Everton, before he joined Fulham as their new head coach in July 2021. He won the Championship title with the club in 2021/22, before guiding them to their first top-half Premier League finish since 2011/12 in 2022/23.

Should Silva remain in his post until July, he will reach five years in the job and become the first Fulham manager to do so since Bedford Jezzard, whose six-year spell came to an end all the way back in 1964.

Silva is also currently the sixth-longest serving manager in the top four divisions of English football.

The Gameplan

With Fulham journalist Jack Kelly

Fulham journalist Jack Kelly explains how Marco Silva is likely to set up his side for Saturday’s west London derby:

“It will be a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, however you want to see it," Kelly told us earlier this week.

"Out of possession, they like to press in a 4-4-2, with the no.10 pressing from the front with the striker, then trying to win the ball high up the pitch. They play with high intensity and are always trying to win games.

“Maybe it is reflective of only five draws that Silva says they do not play for draws, which can be detrimental at times, because the desire to win can sometimes cause them to go on and lose.

“Fulham are very expansive and brave in the way they play, but given this is a derby, they will be giving it that extra 10 per cent.”

Last Premier League starting XI v Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Iwobi; Wilson, King, Bobb; Muniz

Match Officials

Tierney to referee west London derby

Referee: Paul Tierney

Assistants: Edward Smart and Blake Antrobus

Fourth official: John Brooks

VAR: Craig Pawson

Paul Tierney will referee Saturday’s west London derby at Gtech Community Stadium.

Tierney has officiated 20 games this season, showing 72 yellow cards and one red.

Memorable Meeting

Brentford 3 Fulham 2 (Premier League, 6 March 2023)

Brentford edged a pulsating west London derby against Fulham.

Ethan Pinnock and Manor Solomon traded goals at either end of the first half as the rivals went in level.

Ivan Toney restored the Bees’ advantage from the penalty spot early in the second half with Mathias Jensen making the game safe seven minutes from time.

Carlos Vinicius netted a late consolation for Marco Silva’s side but there would be no denying Brentford all three derby night points.