Maybe Logan Webb’s best days are behind him?

[It’s] an injury that might prove to be a relief compared to intangible speculation that three straight 200-inning seasons, or ramping up too early in this year’s World Baseball Classic, or some other hard-to-pinpoint development might be behind Webb’s bad start to 2026. Well, when someone puts it that way, it somehow feels *more* likely that it’s those other things and the knee problem serves as a convenient explanation. On the other hand, Webb *did* dominate in the World Baseball Classic, with 11 strikeouts in 8.2 IP and just *1* run allowed in 2 starts. The regular season workloads coupled with the early ramp might’ve contributed to a knee problem. His pre-knee problem starts showed the same Logan Webb from a stuff & Statcast perspective, too, so in a small sample of 7 or so starts, bad luck is a reasonable conclusion. But let’s take a look at pitchers to register 1,000+ innings before their age-29 season (Webb’s current season), and just to keep the list manageable and omit the of the baseball world, let’s look at those pitchers in the Wild Card era (since 1995). in 31 years. Most of these names will be incredibly familiar to you. These were the reliable 200 innings a year guys. Here are the top 10: | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Player** | **IP** | **Seasons** | **Ages** | **ERA** | **WHIP** | **per 9s** | | | 2,060.2 | 2005-2014 | 19-28 | 3.07 | 1.17 | 0.7 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 | | | 1,889.1 | 2001-2009 | 20-28 | 3.62 | 1.23 | 0.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9 | | | 1,760 | 2008-2016 | 20-28 | 2.37 | 1.00 | 0.5 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 9.8 K/9 | | | 1,721 | 2005-2013 | 20-28 | 3.35 | 1.17 | 0.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9 | | | 1,671.2 | 2009-2017 | 20-28 | 4.25 | 1.32 | 1.1 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9 | | Javier Vazquez | 1,643 | 1998-2005 | 21-28 | 4.28 | 1.27 | 1.2 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9 | | | 1,638.1 | 2009-2018 | 19-28 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 0.9 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.7 K/9 | | | 1,629 | 2000-2007 | 21-28 | 3.80 | 1.26 | 1.0 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 5.2 K/9 | | Jon Garland | 1,625.1 | 2000-2008 | 20-28 | 4.47 | 1.39 | 1.1 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9 | | Carlos Zambrano | 1,551.1 | 2001-2009 | 20-28 | 4.51 | 1.30 | 0.7 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9 | Other Giants in this group of 90: Livan Hernandez (1,449.1), Sidney Ponson (1,443.1), (1,430.1), (1,362.2), (1,315.1), (1,260.1), (1,240.2), (1,214), (1,208.1), (1,157.2), (1,149.1), (1,139.2), and (1,022). Logan Webb is 73rd on the list with 1,062.1 innings pitched from 2019-2025, his age-22 throuh age-28 seasons. But, gosh, I hope just given this list of names you see where I’m going with this. Since Logan Webb’s contract runs through his age-31 season, let’s look at the next 540 innings (180 innings a season) for the players I just referenced. First, though, the total number of pitchers in the Wild Card era to throw at least 540 innings across their age 29-31 seasons . It is a much different top 10: | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | **Player** | **IP** | **ERA** | | Livan Hernandez | 717.1 | 4.10 | | Curt Schilling | 706.1 | 3.13 | | | 705.2 | 3.15 | | Scott Erickson | 703.1 | 4.17 | | Roy Halladay | 691.1 | 3.22 | | Greg Maddux | 687.1 | 2.21 | | Jon Lieber | 686.2 | 4.10 | | | 683.2 | 3.90 | | | 677.1 | 2.96 | | John Smoltz | 677.1 | 2.96 | [takes a beat to process the similarites between Max Scherzer and John Smoltz.] So, this list plugs in some players I might’ve expected to be in the top 10 of the prior list, namely Maddux, Schilling, and Colon. Maddux’s omission is attributable to the “Wild Card era” cutoff. He made his debut at 20 years old and from 20-28 threw 1,911 IP. That would place him ahead of CC Sabathia in the first list. The other two didn’t hit 1,000 innings: Curt Schilling debuted in his age-21 season (again, before the Wild Card era), but amassed just 805 IP from 21-28. Bartolo Colon debuted in his age-24 season (94 IP) and got to 819.1 IP before his age-29 season. So, I think the 1,000 innings starting point is meaningul. Let’s see what happened to the top 10 list of pre-29s who had 1,000+ innings under their belt heading into it, as Logan Webb has done here in 2026. | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Player** | **IP** | **Seasons** | **Ages** | **ERA** | **WHIP** | **per 9s** | | Felix Hernandez | 441.2 | 2015-2017 | 29-31 | 3.79 | 1.25 | 1.2 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9 | | CC Sabathia | 675 | 2010-2012 | 29-31 | 3.17 | 1.19 | 0.8 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 | | Clayton Kershaw | 514.2 | 2017-2019 | 29-31 | 2.69 | 1.01 | 1.2 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9 | | Matt Cain | 240.1 | 2014-2016 | 29-31 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 1.5 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9 | | Rick Porcello | 424.2 | 2018-2020 | 29-31 | 4.98 | 1.31 | 1.3 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 | | Javier Vazquez | 627.2 | 2006-2008 | 29-31 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 1.1 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 | | Madison Bumgarner | 395.2 | 2019-2021 | 29-31 | 4.46 | 1.18 | 1.5 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9 | | Mark Buehrle | 642.1 | 2008-2010 | 29-31 | 3.97 | 1.33 | 0.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.8 K/9 | | Jon Garland | 458 | 2009-2011 | 29-31 | 3.81 | 1.39 | 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 5.4 K/9 | | Carlos Zambrano | 407.2 | 2010-2012 | 29-31 | 4.24 | 1.46 | 0.8 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9 | Basically, 3 of the top 10 200+ innings a year guys stayed that way heading into their thirties (Sabathia, Kershaw, and Buehrle). The uglier part of going through this list (and the whole list of 90) is seeing the burnout either during or soon after their 29-31 seasons, largely due to injury.