Memphis Grizzlies NBA draft lottery guide, chances at No. 1 overall pick

Memphis Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Walter Clayton Jr. gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taylor Hendricks gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Ty Jerome gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ head coach Tuomas Iisalo gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ GG Jackson II gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Walter Clayton Jr. gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taylor Hendricks gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

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Here’s our best photos of the Memphis Grizzlies exit interviews

Memphis Grizzlies’ Taj Gibson gives his exit interview on April 13, 2026 at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

How the NBA draft lottery works

The Grizzlies are one of 14 teams eligible for the lottery. The first four picks are determined through the lottery drawing, while picks No. 5 through No. 14 are ordered by regular-season record from worst to best.

For Memphis, owning the sixth-best odds means it can move into the top four or land anywhere between No. 6 and No. 10.

The drawing itself takes place in a private room in Chicago with NBA officials, team representatives, select media members. Ernst & Young auditors will oversee the process.

The pingpong balls and combinations

A set of 14 pingpong balls is used to create 1,000 possible four-number combinations.

With 9% odds at the No. 1 pick, Memphis is assigned 90 of those combinations. By comparison, the three teams with the best lottery odds each receive 140 combinations, reflecting their 14% chance.

Four balls are drawn to determine each winning combination. After a team secures one of the top four picks, it is removed from subsequent drawings.

DRAFT SIMULATION: 100 lottery simulations later, what we learned of Grizzlies’ NBA draft fate

The history of the sixth-best odds

Landing a franchise-changing player from the sixth slot will require Memphis to buck recent history.

Since the NBA flattened lottery odds in 2019, no team with the sixth-best odds has jumped into the top four. Teams in that position have stayed at No. 6 once, dropped to No. 7 twice, fallen to No. 8 three times and slid to No. 9 once.

Still, recent lotteries have shown movement is possible. Last year alone, teams slotted No. 8 and No. 11 vaulted into the top four. Since the current format began, teams with the fifth, seventh, eighth, ninth, 10th and 11th-best odds have all made that leap.

For the Grizzlies, history may not be encouraging — but the lottery has proven that surprises remain possible.

Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com. Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: NBA draft lottery guide, Memphis Grizzlies' odds at No. 1 pick