
Spoelstra: No need to penalize Ball any further
Erik Spoelstra supports no further penalties for LaMelo Ball after flagrant foul.
The Minnesota Vikings are considering multiple positions for their first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, with safety Dillon Thieneman being a popular choice. Other potential picks include Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, indicating a flexible strategy for the team.
INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 13: Washington Huskies wide receiver Denzel Boston (12) catches the ball for a touchdown during the LA Bowl hosted by Gronk between the Boise State Broncos and the Washington Huskies on December 13, 2025, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This draft is looking like it could be very interesting since there seems to be some belief that the team is not locked into any one position in the first round. For a little while the consensus was the Vikings would take a safety and that it would be Dillon Thieneman which would be an excellent pick. Even Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would not be a bad pick.
yore AI question of the day …
Is taking a safety in the first round of the NFL draft a good value pick? If not, what positions are good values and which ones have the highest success rate in terms of solid play?
Taking a safety in the first round is generally considered poor positional value, particularly in the top 10. However, safeties have one of the highest success rates in the league for first-round picks, making them a “safe” bet to find a starter even if the financial and strategic value is lower than other positions.
Positional Value of Safeties
Cap Efficiency: Drafting a safety in the top 10 often means paying them a salary near the top of the veteran market immediately. In contrast, a first-round quarterback or edge rusher costs significantly less than their veteran counterparts, providing massive “surplus value”.
Inherent Impact: Conventional wisdom holds that safeties are less impactful on winning (lower Wins Above Replacement or WAR) compared to “premium” positions like Quarterback, Offensive Tackle, or Edge Rusher.
Exceptions: “Unicorn” prospects with extreme versatility—players who can play deep zone, blitz, and cover athletic tight ends—are often seen as worth a high pick.
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Position : Day 1 Hit Rate : Success Definition
Interior Offensive Line (iOL) : ~70-92% : Highest likelihood of signing a second contract or becoming a long-term starter.
Offensive Tackle (OT) : ~73% : High floor; 37% of 50-game starters over the last 20 years were first-rounders.
Safety (S) : ~71.4% : Very low bust rate (~14-18%) compared to other defensive positions.
Linebacker (LB) : ~58-70% : Historically low bust rate; often dependable starters for at least half their careers.
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High-Value vs. High-Risk Positions
High Value (Premium): Quarterback, Edge Rusher, Offensive Tackle, and Wide Receiver are the highest value due to their impact and veteran cost.
High Risk (High Bust Rate): Wide Receivers and Edge Rushers have some of the lowest hit rates in the first round. WRs, in particular, have been cited with a bust/reach rate as high as 63%.
Running Backs: While they have a high “All-Pro” potential if drafted in the first round (31%), they are often considered the worst value pick due to short career spans and high bust rates.
Considering the Vikings draft needs in 2026, it looks like defensive tackle would not be a good pick at #18. Safety is the most common pick among mock drafts but that is an uncertainty because it is unclear if Brian Flores wants a safety early. Offensive tackle could be a sneaky pick since the team has not reached an extension agreement with Brian O’Neill and may be hesitating to pay him 23-25M per year as he enters his 30’s. His past injury history is a risk. The team does need to get another center but is willing to give Blake Brandel the job in 2026. Plus, there is not a center worth a first round pick (or second round pick for that matter). They could take a tackle like Spender Fano and move him to center or maybe a top guard to move to center. That is a risk with a first round pick. Another receiver is not a bad idea since the team has picked up the fifth year option on Jordan Addison but may not give him a 25-30M extension. A cornerback is nice but the team has Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre as the top 3 corners. It is coming down to edge, tight end (if Kenyon Sadiq is there), or linebacker (CJ Allen at 18 may be early).
What position will and should the team take is the question of this draft?
Part 11, S: Why Caleb Downs, a ‘slam dunk,’ is one of the best players in the NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings 2026 NFL draft picks, biggest needs
Top three needs C, S, WR
Ryan Kelly’s retirement left the Vikings without an obvious replacement at center. Backup Michael Jurgens started three games last season, and the Vikings converted guard/tackle Blake Brandel to start five more, but it’s unclear whether either is a long-term answer.
The Vikings are also considering how to replace veteran safety Harrison Smith, who at age 37 has yet to decide whether he will retire. And though their top two receivers are set with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have no proven depth after Jalen Nailor’s departure to the Raiders. Tai Felton, a 2025 third-round draft pick, played only 46 offensive snaps last season.
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Draft Results from PFSN
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Trade with HOU B-
Received
Pick #28 (1st Round) 209
Pick #59 (2nd Round) 91
Total Received 300
Sent
Pick #18 (1st Round) 287
Pick #244 (7th Round) 1
Total Sent 288
Net Value: +12
Trade values via Rich Hill
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Trade with CIN B-
Received
Pick #41 (2nd Round) 146
Pick #151 (5th Round) 12
Total Received 158
Sent
Pick #49 (2nd Round) 118
Pick #97 (3rd Round) 39
Total Sent 157
Net Value: +1
Trade values via Rich Hill
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Trade with HOU B
Received
Pick #69 (3rd Round) 71
Pick #106 (4th Round) 32
Pick #141 (5th Round) 15
Total Received 118
Sent
Pick #59 (2nd Round) 91
Pick #151 (5th Round) 12
Total Sent 103
Net Value: +15
Trade values via Rich Hill
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Trade with SF C
Received
Pick #133 (4th Round) 17
Total Received 17
Sent
Pick #141 (5th Round) 15
Pick #235 (7th Round) 2
Total Sent
17
Net Value: +0
Trade values via Rich Hill
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Trade with DAL C-
Received
Pick #152 (5th Round) 12
Pick #218 (7th Round) 2
Total Received 14
Sent
Pick #163 (5th Round) 9
2027 5th Round Pick 8
Total Sent 17
Net Value: -3
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Pick 28. Kenyon Sadiq TE Oregon 6’3″, 241
Pick 41. Denzel Boston WR Washington 6’3 5/8″, 212
Pick 69. Domonique Orange DT Iowa State 6’2 3/8″, 32
Pick 82. Jalon Kilgore S South Carolina 6’1 3/8″, 210
Pick 106. HOU Kyle Louis LB Pittsburgh
Pick 133. Logan Jones OC Iowa
Pick 152. DAL Nicholas Singleton RB Penn State
Pick 196. Jadon Canady S Oregon
Pick 218. Caden Curry EDGE Ohio State
Pick 234. Riley Nowakowski TE Indiana
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The top candidates include safety Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, among others.
The Vikings previously considered selecting a safety for their first-round pick.
The Vikings are not locked into any one position, allowing them to explore various options based on draft developments.
The value of taking a safety in the first round is debated, with opinions varying on which positions offer the best success rates.

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