MLB Best Home Run Bets For April 16, 2026—Arraez And Jensen

Luis Arraez is looking for his first home run as a member of the San Francisco Giants, and he could get on the board today at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.

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After a nearly two-week hiatus for MLB Best Home Run Bets, today’s picks will look to return with a bang. As a reminder, bets on players to hit homers will lose more often than they win.

To that point, the best home run bets for the season are only 3-6-1 (the one is a no bet for Griffin Conine because he didn’t start). Line shopping –looking for the most favorable betting odds across all available sportsbooks in a bettor’s particular market– and informed home run bets can yield a profit, even with a losing record.

Despite the 3-6-1 record for the best home run bets this season, any readers and gamblers who placed $100 wagers on all of the suggested home run props at the listed odds are up $800 on the season.

There will eventually be downs in the rollercoaster of betting on homers. Still, the early-season winners provide some wiggle room, and two players with long odds on today’s MLB slate would provide an even bigger cushion for turning a profit in 2026 if either or both reached the seats this afternoon.

MLB Best Home Run Bets

Luis Arraez (San Francisco Giants - 2B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+760) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Luis Arraez hasn’t hit a home run in 17 games and 71 plate appearances for the San Francisco Giants this year. The left-handed-hitting, contact-oriented infielder’s batting profile is built on batting average over power, and he’s hit only 36 homers in 857 games and 3,604 career plate appearances.

Arraez’s career high for homers is only 10 in 147 games and 617 plate appearances in 2023. His second-highest total is eight home runs in a season, which he’s reached twice.

Lightning could strike for Arraez today, though. He has hit two of his 36 career homers (5.6%) in only 12 games (1.4% of his career games played) and 51 plate appearances (1.4% of his career plate appearances) at Great American Ball Park.

Among 29 ballparks with data from 2024 through 2026, Great American Ball Park has the second-highest park factor for home runs (118). It’s a launching pad.

Arraez also has a desirable matchup for tapping into his infrequent home run power. Chase Burns has allowed six homers and 1.93 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) to 135 left-handed batters since reaching the Majors last season.

The conditions are optimal for Arraez to hit his first homer of 2026. While his +760 odds listed above and available at FanDuel Sportsbook are outstanding, gamblers in markets with Hard Rock Bet can get even tastier +1000 odds for Arraez to hit a homer. Arraez is an appealing bet at either odds.

Carter Jensen has massive power he can tap into in a favorable matchup today.

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Carter Jensen (Kansas City Royals - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+526) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Carter Jensen has massive power. FanGraphs graded his current game power 50 and his current raw power 55 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and his future game power 55 and future raw power 60 on their 2026 preseason prospect report.

The 22-year-old’s power translated to 20 home runs in 492 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last year and three more in 69 plate appearances for the Royals. The left-handed-hitting slugger has already hit four home runs in 17 games and 53 plate appearances this season.

All seven of his homers have come against right-handers in 92 career plate appearances against them. Jensen will take cuts against a right-handed starter today.

Keider Montero will get the ball for the Tigers. The 25-year-old righty has bounced up and down between the minors and Majors since 2024, and he’s spent time starting and relieving. In 41 career appearances (30 starts) and 199.1 innings for the Tigers in his career, Montero has allowed 1.58 HR/9.

Furthermore, Montero has been homer-prone against left-handed batters. The 208 lefties who’ve faced Montero since last year have taken him deep 10 times, a pace of approximately 29 homers per 600 plate appearances. Jensen’s +526 odds to hit a home run offered at DraftKings Sportsbook are too long for a player with his power profile and matchup this afternoon, and gamblers should take advantage of the bargain.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com