MLB Best Home Run Bets For May 11, 2026—Rice And Ramos

Ben Rice has hit 12 home runs this year and could launch another one tonight.

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The ebbs and flows of the MLB best home run bets aren’t for the faint of heart. Home run props are long-shot bets, and losing streaks are part of the equation.

Seven straight home run bets haven’t come to fruition. The season’s record for best home run bets is 7-27, with two no bets for players who didn’t play.

Still, even with the drought for correct home run props, the season’s profits sit at $400 for readers and bettors who wagered $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds. Today offers another opportunity to add to the season’s profits with two eye-catching home run props.

MLB Best Home Run Bets

Ben Rice (New York Yankees - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325) at theScoreBet

Ben Rice’s 12 home runs this season are the seventh most, and his 12.7 expected home runs are the eighth most in MLB this season. The 27-year-old slugger has brilliant batted-ball data.

Among 271 qualified hitters in 2026, Rice is tied for ninth in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.2%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball event rate (21.7%), fourth in hard-hit rate (59.3%), tied for 27th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph) and 38th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.5%).

Rice has smashed with the platoon advantage. Rice has hit seven home runs in 105 plate appearances against righties this year and 32 home runs in 649 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching since reaching the Majors in 2024.

He has a plus matchup and superb park factors tonight. Brandon Young has allowed three home runs at 1.31 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) across four starts this year. Young has surrendered eight home runs to 193 left-handed batters at 1.71 HR/9 since last season. Additionally, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a park factor of 121 for home runs, the second-highest mark among MLB ballparks since 2025. Rice has a great chance to hit a home run and make bettors of his home run prop winners.

Heliot Ramos has an outstanding matchup and ideal park factors for a home run tonight.

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Heliot Ramos (San Francisco Giants - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+535) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Heliot Ramos began the year without a home run through his first 18 games and 68 plate appearances. He’s turned his season around since the cold start. In Ramos’s last 21 games and 88 plate appearances, he’s hit four home runs. Among 182 qualified batters since April 17 (the day Ramos hit his first home run of the year), Ramos is tied for 11th in average exit velocity (94.3 mph), tied for 12th in barrels rate (19.0%) and fifth in hard-hit rate (60.3%), and he’s had a 9.4-degree launch angle, 20.6% line-drive rate, 33.3% fly-ball rate and 19.0% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB).

Ramos’s full-season batted-ball data is also stellar. Among 271 qualified batters in 2026, Ramos is tied for 40th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.0%), tied for 46th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.5%), tied for 25th in hard-hit rate (51.9%), tied for 16th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.4 mph), tied for 76th in maximum exit velocity (111.5 mph) and tied for 98th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.6%).

Ramos has an ideal combination of his pitching matchup and the park factors tonight. Roki Sasaki’s 2.51 HR/9 allowed this year are the most among tonight’s probable starters and Alek Manoah, the projected bulk reliever for the Angels tonight. Sasaki didn’t allow a home run in his first start of the year, but he’s permitted eight in five starts since, yielding at least one in each of those five starts and coughing up multiple home runs in two of them.

Finally, the park factors are optimal. UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium’s 132 park factor for home runs since last year is MLB’s highest. Ramos can take advantage of his tasty matchup and ideal park factors and deliver on his home run prop.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com