MLB Best Home Run Bets For May 4, 2026—Hicks And Ballesteros

Liam Hicks has made tangible changes to increase his home runs in 2026.

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The MLB best home run bets sit at a 7-21 record, with two no bets for players who didn’t start. Given the long-shot nature of home run bets and the picky process that includes line shopping across sportsbooks, hitting on just seven home run props has yielded a tidy $1,000 profit for readers and bettors who bet on each of the suggested home run bets at the listed odds.

A cold streak earlier in the season wiped away the season’s profits to that point, and another drought is inevitable because home run props are long-shot bets. Still, the current profit of $1,000 awards bettors some cushion for a dry spell, and two more compelling home run bets for Monday’s MLB action provide an opportunity to add to the season’s profits.

MLB Best Home Run Bets

Liam Hicks (Miami Marlins - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+900) at theScore Bet

Liam Hicks hit just six home runs in 119 games and 390 plate appearances as a rookie in 2025. FanGraphs graded his game and raw power, both current and future, at only 30 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, a below-average power grade. Hicks’s modest home run output wasn’t surprising.

He’s kicked it up a notch in 2026. Hicks has already hit seven homers in 31 games and 112 plate appearances. Hicks hasn’t been especially lucky, either. He has six expected home runs this season, which is only one less than his actual output.

Hicks also has tangible changes to his batted-ball profile that helps explain his surge in homers. He’s increased his average exit velocity from 84.6 mph in 2025 to 88.1 mph this year, lifted his launch angle from 10.6 degrees to 11.8 degrees, more than doubled his barrel rate from 3.5% to 7.6%, pumped his hard-hit rate up from 27.7% to 40.2%, slightly decreased his ground-ball rate from 42.4% to 41.3% and drastically increased his pull rate from 39.0% to 46.7%.

Hicks has a dreamy matchup tonight to add to his season’s home run total. Aaron Nola has allowed six home runs at 1.72 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in six starts this year, permitting at least one home run in four of six starts and yielding two home runs in two of those turns.

Left-handed batters have rocked Nola. The 321 left-handed batters who’ve faced him since last year have launched 17 home runs at 2.17 HR/9. Hicks has homered in two of his last four games, and his +900 odds offered at theScore Bet are too tantalizing to pass up tonight.

Moises Ballesteros has excellent conditions for hitting a home run tonight.

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Moises Ballesteros (Chicago Cubs - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+380) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Moises Ballesteros has hit six home runs in 30 games and 92 plate appearances this season. Among 270 qualified hitters in 2026, Ballesteros is tied for 47th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.7%), 70th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.8%), tied for 37th in hard-hit rate (50.0%), 39th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph), tied for 75th in maximum exit velocity (111.4 mph) and tied for 28th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.2%).

Ballesteros has a good matchup, fantastic park factors and potentially helpful weather for hitting a home run tonight. Chase Petty served up three home runs (4.50 HR/9) in just three appearances (two starts) spanning 6.0 innings last season for the Reds. Petty has also coughed up 20 home runs at 1.31 HR/9 in 32 starts at the Triple-A level since last season.

Petty doesn’t appear to be ready for the Majors, and Wrigley Field won’t help him tonight. Wrigley Field’s 108 park factor for homers since 2025 is the 11th-highest mark in MLB. Finally, while there’s potential for rain, the temperature is relatively warm, and the winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field tonight. When the winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field, the ball tends to leave the yard, and Ballesteros has the power to cash in his +380 home run prop.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com