MLB Best Home Run Bets For May 9, 2026—Alvarez And Hicks

The veteran slugger has a decent matchup and outstanding park factors today. Chase Burns has allowed eight home runs at 1.69 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) to 190 left-handed batters since last year. Better yet, Great American Ball Park’s 119 park factor for homers is the third-highest mark in MLB since 2025. Alvarez’s home run prop’s betting odds are justifiably chalky, but it’s a worthwhile home run bet because he is likely to launch a homer into the seats today.

Liam Hicks has made changes to his batted-ball profile to hit more home runs this season.

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Liam Hicks (Miami Marlins - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+660) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Liam Hicks didn’t have an eye-catching home run profile as a prospect. Nevertheless, he’s tapped into his power in a breakout 2026 campaign.

Hicks slugged only six home runs in 119 games and 390 plate appearances in 2025, but he’s already ripped nine home runs in 36 games and 130 plate appearances in 2026. Eight of the nine home runs Hicks has hit this year have come in 104 plate appearances against righties, and 14 of his 15 career homers were hit in 428 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Hicks has made tangible changes to his batted-ball profile to hit more home runs. He’s increased his average exit velocity from 84.6 mph to 88.0 mph, lifted his launch angle from 10.6 degrees to 12.3 degrees, increased his barrel rate from 3.5% to 7.5%, bumped his hard-hit rate from 27.7% to 40.6%, ticked up his fly-ball rate from 33.8% to 36.8% and pulled the ball at a 44.3% clip in 2026 after tallying a 39.0% pull rate in 2025, resulting in a surge from a 6.4% home runs per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate to 23.1%.

The left-handed-hitting Hicks has a golden opportunity to add to his home run ledger in a mouthwatering matchup today. Zack Littell’s 3.62 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed this year is the most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Littell has allowed 13 home runs in seven appearances (five starts) this season, keeping the ball in the yard in two of those appearances but surrendering two, three, two, four and two homers in the other five appearances.

The Nationals also have a homer-prone bullpen. Washington’s relievers have allowed an MLB-high 1.80 HR/9 this season. Hicks should take advantage of his matchup against Littell and Washington’s lousy bullpen and make good on his home run prop by ripping a homer today.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com