MLB Overreactions: Yankees have a cakewalk to AL pennant, Shohei Ohtani is winning MVP and Cy Young

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Here in this space, authored by little ol' me, "Opening Day Overreactions" has been a fun thing I've done for nearly a decade. Somehow, the realization has escaped me for years, but why not run through overreactions at other points in the season? Sounds fun enough, right? Today, we're going to overreact to the first quarter of the 2026 MLB season. We're technically not quite 25% of the way through the 162-game slate (every team has played between 35 and 38 games), but indulge me.

We're overreacting, then analyzing the prompt and finally rendering a verdict on the veracity of the claim. Let's get to it.

The Dodgers aren't as good as everyone thought

The two-time reigning champs are 'only' 23-14

The Dodgers are the two-time defending champions, and that always inspires hot takes, but given the hand-wringing over baseball's financial situation -- no salary cap -- along with the Dodgers' financial might, this one goes into overdrive easily. Manager Dave Roberts even mentioned that the Dodgers are content to keep ruining baseball when celebrating the World Series title last fall. Then they started 15-4 (a 128-win pace) and it was only confirmation that this is not fair and the Dodgers are too good.

Well, the Dodgers have "only" gone 8-10 since that start. There are now four teams (Braves, Yankees, Cubs and Rays) with a better record than theirs (23-14). Maybe it isn't so unfair after all, right?

Again, this is a team that inspires overreactions, so now things could swing the other way. The thing is, they are still the contender with the ability to most easily acquire more talent at the trade deadline. We just went through this last year, too, when the Dodgers started 8-0 ("no fair, best team ever!") and then they didn't even earn a bye in the playoffs, as the Brewers and Phillies ended the regular season with more wins. The then Dodgers dropped the hammer in the playoffs.

It's a marathon here, and no one better knows how to pace themselves.

Verdict: It doesn't matter if they only win 86 games. As long as the Dodgers make the playoffs, they are the biggest threat to win the World Series until proven otherwise.

The Braves are going to run away with the NL East

Atlanta (8 ½ games) has the largest divisional lead in baseball

The Braves (26-12) have been the best team in baseball to this point, even if the Cubs, Yankees and, yes, Dodgers are right on their heels. The Braves have the best record and run differential and just lost their first series this week.

They already have an 8.5-game lead in the NL East. No one else in the division is better than three games under .500.

This might lead a good number of people to believe the Braves are set to run away and hide.

Not so fast.

The Phillies won 96 games last year and had a miserable start to the season, but they've won eight of nine and look like their old selves. I also have concerns with the depth in the Braves' rotation, and they are dealing with Ronald Acuña Jr. being on the injured list right now.

Remember, the Braves themselves came back from a 10 ½-game deficit in 2022 to win the division over the Mets. The Guardians last season were an absurd 15 ½ games back at one point and won the AL Central. These are extreme circumstances, obviously, but things happen over the course of a 162-game season.

Verdict: I think the Braves have enough of a lead in the bank right now that they'll be able to hold onto this division. That is to say that, all things being equal, I think their true talent level the rest of the way is at least within 8 ½ games of the Phillies (and Nationals), and there are bigger leads over the other two teams. But by no means is this thing over.

The NL Central is the best division ever

Every team in the NLC is over .500

The Cubs are the hottest team in baseball right now. They've won eight in a row, 18 of 21 overall and have a 14-game home winning streak. They sit 25-12, a half-game behind the Braves for the best record in baseball. And a bad two-week stretch -- not even that, maybe a week-and-a-half! -- could see them fall all the way to the cellar.

Every single team in the NL Central is above .500 right now. The teams are collectively 105-77. To put that in context, that's a .577 winning percentage, and a single team playing at that rate over the course of 162 games would win 93 games. A whole division is playing like a division winner. In fact, we just discussed the Dodgers, and that's exactly how many games they won last year. The whole NL Central right now is playing like the 2025 Dodgers!

No division in history has ever seen all five teams finish above .500.

Twice, however, we've had divisions finish the season with no teams under .500.

In 2005, the newly relocated Washington Nationals finished 81-81 and in last place in the NL East. As you might imagine, the teams were all bunched up. The Braves won the division at 90-72, beating out the Phillies by two games, Marlins and Mets by seven and the Nats by nine.

Going back a little further, the 1991 AL West had a ridiculous seven teams at .500 or better. The Twins won it with 95 wins, and the White Sox were second with 87, so it was still a comfortable division title for the eventual World Series champs. Only six games separated spots 2-7 in the standings in that one.

Can this year's Central keep this up?

The Cubs are good, though there are concerns about the rotation depth. The Brewers probably aren't going anywhere, just judging on their recent history. There are now major worries with the Reds, who have lost six straight, have a leaky bullpen, a banged-up rotation, and a minus-25 run differential. The Cardinals have plenty of naysayers, too, as this was supposed to be a rebuilding year. As for the Pirates, they look feisty, but have already been inconsistent, and this group hasn't yet contended.

Verdict: Nah, this won't be the best division ever, and I don't believe they'll match the 1991 AL West or 2005 NL East. At least one from the group of the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds will fall off, maybe even two of them. I would, however, be bullish on at least two playoff teams from this division and maybe three like they had last year.

The Yankees are going to win the AL with ease

The Bronx Bombers are 25-12 and lead the majors in home runs

Since we just discussed a division that has succeeded as a group, we might as well balance things out and talk negatively about the bad one. Only it isn't just one!

The Guardians are 19-19 and have a one-game lead in the AL Central. At least it's all close together -- the Twins are in last but 2 ½ games out -- but it's pretty sad to see an entire division that has zero teams above .500 to this point. Of course, we could move our eyes to the West and, yes, same thing. The Athletics lead the AL West at 18-18. The Mariners and Rangers are both one game back, while the Angels and Astros are four out, tied for last. For those curious, the worst division winner ever is the 2005 San Diego Padres at 82-80, so maybe we'll see dubious history this season.

Back in the AL East, the Yankees are 25-12 with a plus-74 run differential. They aren't even full strength in their rotation, as Carlos Ródon is expected to return Sunday and Gerrit Cole is coming in the next few weeks. The Rays are hanging with the Yankees, for now -- only a half-game back at 24-12 -- but common sentiment is they don't have the talent to keep up.

You're already starting to hear the talk radio crowd talk about how the AL might be a cakewalk for the Yankees. I do think they are pretty clearly the best team in the league right now. Absolutely.

Let's keep in mind the marathon that is the season, though.

Verdict: It's never that easy. Someone will get hot down the stretch and prove a formidable foe in the playoffs. Remember, just last season the Blue Jays were 26-28 and eight games out of first place heading to May 28. They would go on to win the AL East and the AL pennant. The 2019 Nationals were 19-31 at one point and won the World Series. The 2021 Braves had the worst record of any playoff team and won it all. The 2023 Diamondbacks won only 84 games and took the NL pennant. Funky stuff can happen. Patience!

Someone is going to hit 60 home runs again

Five players have 12 or more homers entering play on Thursday

For a long time, 60 home runs was nearly unreachable. There was Babe Ruth in 1927 and Roger Maris in 1961. Then the so-called "Steroid Era" came along and we saw Barry Bonds hit 73 in a season, Mark McGwire hit more than 60 twice (topping out at 70) and Sammy Sosa got there a ridiculous three times -- more ridiculous that he didn't lead even his own league any of those three seasons. Then baseball started PED testing and it looked like maybe we'd never see it again -- until Aaron Judge got there in 2022 and Cal Raleigh did the same last season.

Given the way the game is shaped nowadays with so many power pitchers having elite off-speed stuff, it's harder than ever to string hits together. But we also have incredibly strong hitters who can run into pitches with relative regularity.

It's early, and paces don't always pan out, but here are some of the players on pace to challenge 60 so far this season:

• Aaron Judge: 15 home runs, on pace for 66
• Munetaka Murakami: 14 home runs, on pace for 61
• Matt Olson: 13 home runs, on pace for 55
• Yordan Alvarez: 12 home runs, on pace for 51
• Ben Rice: 12 home runs, on pace for 51

Verdict: I'm inclined to say it won't happen, but, man, Judge being up there with this kind of pace gives me pause. In addition to having already gotten to 60, meaning he won't feel the kind of public pressure this time around, he's also got a season with 58 and two more 50-plus seasons on his resume. I'll say no one gets to 60, ultimately, but Judge again wouldn't surprise me. Anyone else would shock me as much as Raleigh did.

Shohei Ohtani is going to win MVP and Cy Young

The three-time MVP has discussed being motivated by the possibility of winning a Cy Young Award. No two-way player has ever won the Cy Young, obviously, and Ohtani is technically rostered as a position player since he serves as DH far more often than he pitches. Right now, he's leading the majors in ERA (0.97) and WHIP (0.81) through six starts on the mound. He's only worked 37 innings, but he's struck out 42 against nine walks.

Workload matters, as the NL's innings leader has thrown 51 ⅔ (Sandy Alcantara, who has a 4.01 ERA), but on a rate basis, Ohtani leads the field here among NL pitchers, and it isn't really all that close. Clay Holmes, Bryce Elder, Chris Sale, Chase Burns and Shota Imanaga are the next several in ERA. Holmes is second at 1.69.

Ohtani, by the way, is hitting .248/.389/.442 with seven doubles, six home runs, 15 RBI, 25 runs and five steals in five tries. That's a far cry from some of the offensive production we've seen to date from this man, but it's still a well above-average line (129 wRC+, for example). If you factor in his pitching value with his offensive value, he'd win MVP in the NL right now.

And, yeah, he would win Cy Young, too, I think.

Can he keep this up?

I think two things remain as obstacles.

First off, I'm not confident Ohtani can perform this well over a full season while shouldering a full pitcher workload. He probably needs to work up to around 180 innings in the regular season and the Dodgers are going to be worried about the playoffs. They need him in that playoff rotation.

If Ohtani does work up to, say, 165 innings of excellent rate work, maybe he wins the Cy Young. But that brings me to the second obstacle: Paul Skenes.

Skenes been inconsistent so far, but after another gem on Wednesday night, it was a nice reminder that it would be folly to act like the Pirates star can't win back-to-back Cy Youngs.

Verdict: It is possible, which is incredible to even consider. I'm going to say Ohtani cannot get it done, though. Ohtani still pulls off another MVP but Skenes wins Cy Young again with over 200 innings of dominance.