Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner, will undergo elbow surgery for loose bodies, with a recovery timeline of two to three months. His injury raises concerns about his status as a top free agent in the 2027 MLB class.
Key points
Tarik Skubal has loose bodies in his elbow.
He will undergo surgery with a recovery time of two to three months.
Skubal is a two-time Cy Young winner.
His injury impacts his status as a top free agent for 2027.
This will be his second elbow surgery in four years.
Remember, Skubal hits free agency this coming offseason and was supposed to be the crown jewel of the 2027 class. He still is, but it's impossible to get a good read on what his contract might look like right now. We don't know for sure that he'll be back this season. If he does come back, we don't know for how long. If he gets in a few months, we don't know how well he'll pitch. And even if he gets back for the entire second half and pitches like the best in baseball, we're now talking about a guy with two elbow surgeries in four years.
[Tigers ace Tarik Skubal to undergo elbow surgery to remove loose bodies; timeline unclear
I'm not advocating that teams avoid signing Skubal. Far from it. I believe strongly that he'll be a stud when he's all the way back from this setback. I'm simply talking about the realities of the situation. There's no doubt that his value heading toward free agency has been damaged, even if that damage is slight.
Q&A
What is the extent of Tarik Skubal's elbow injury?
Tarik Skubal has loose bodies in his elbow that require surgical removal.
How long is Tarik Skubal expected to be out after surgery?
The estimated recovery time for Tarik Skubal is two to three months.
How does Skubal's injury affect the 2027 MLB free agent class?
Skubal was considered the crown jewel of the 2027 free agent class, but his injury complicates his contract prospects.
What are the implications of Skubal's past elbow surgeries?
This will be Skubal's second elbow surgery in four years, raising concerns about his long-term performance and value.
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On that note, let's look ahead to the free agent class for this coming offseason. It doesn't feel very fruitful right now. Back before the start of spring training, R.J. Anderson ranked the class. Here's how things have gone for the top guys so far in 2026.
See above. Skubal is still at the top of this upcoming free agent class, but the elbow surgeries could ultimately limit his earning potential. By how much remains to be seen.
He's hitting .236/.273/.313 (67 OPS+) and there's a $42 million player option for next season. There's a long way to go, but at this rate, he should just exercise the option and refuse free agency.
With exactly 0.0 WAR, Chisholm is slashing .213/.302/.328 (76 OPS+). He does have 11 steals in 13 tries, but the defense hasn't been stellar. In all, it's been a rough start. It's hard to see him breaking the proverbial bank.
He hasn't been bad. He hasn't been great, either. Peralta is 1-3 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 42 strikeouts against 16 walks in 38 ⅓ innings. After a career-high 5.4 WAR last season, he's on pace for about 1.4. You know how some people like to say, "never trade with the Rays!" with the implication being that the Rays win every single trade? Nonsense. The Brewers should be the team used in that phrase.
So much for his stellar run to finish last season. In six starts this year, Rogers is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 30 ⅓ innings. Given the rest of the track record -- where Rogers has only been good in short spurts -- this is very worrisome.
The numbers overall look good, actually. Gausman has a 3.10 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 40 strikeouts against eight walks in 40 ⅔ innings. There has to be concern over the dwindling strikeouts. Gausman struck out 11 in his Opening Day start and 10 next time out. In his last three starts, however, he struck out four in six innings, three in 6 ⅔ innings and just two in 5 ⅔ innnigs, respectively.
He's been awesome holding down the leadoff spot for a Cubs team off to a tremendous start. He also signed a six-year extension, so he's off the market.
Luzardo signed a five-year extension with the Phillies in March, taking him off the market. Luzardo has a 5.09 ERA so far this season, but he's allowed only two runs on 10 hits in 13 ⅓ innings with 18 strikeouts and no walks in his last two starts.
The second-generation outfielder is hitting .235/.307/.400 (94 OPS+) with 0.7 WAR. He's reliably great on defense, but hasn't yet made good on the power promise he showed last season.
Coming off an injury that cost him nearly half of last season, Bubic is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 42 strikeouts against 19 walks in 40 ⅔ innings. We've made it through 10 players and finally found a pending free agent who is playing exactly as we'd expect. There's definitely value in not-amazing-but-solid contributions from a lefty starter.
They weren't ranked in the top 10, but it should be noted that both Cubs corner outfielders are ticketed for free agency and both have been good this season. Ian Happ is hitting .242/.377/.500 (154 OPS+) with six doubles, eight homers, 15 RBI and 26 runs along with quality defense in left. Seiya Suzuki was injured to start the season, but in 22 games, he's hitting .321/.417/.568 (184 OPS+) with six homers and 13 RBI.
