Momentum: Mariners at White Sox Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sean Burke | 39.2 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 42.5% | 2.72 | 3.19 | | Emerson Hancock | 41.2 | 28.9% | 3.8% | 17.5% | 46.7% | 2.59 | 3.69 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 28.8% | 42.9% | 94.0 | 112 | 97 | 108 | 0.289 | | Sinker | 24.2% | 9.1% | 94.2 | 91 | 55 | 196 | 0.292 | | Cutter | 2.7% | 6.9% | 89.9 | 86 | | | | | Changeup | 0.4% | 6.9% | 85.8 | | | | | | Curveball | 16.7% | 28.8% | 79.3 | 87 | 58 | 112 | 0.306 | | Slider | 27.3% | 5.3% | 86.5 | 85 | | | | Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn’t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He’s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn’t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Anthony Kay | 30 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 39.2% | 5.70 | 6.41 | | Luis Castillo | 34.1 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 33.0% | 6.29 | 4.25 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 38.2% | 35.2% | 95.8 | 91 | 57 | 72 | 0.491 | | Sinker | 13.4% | 44.0% | 95.1 | 114 | | | | | Cutter | 24.1% | 18.7% | 90.9 | 99 | 91 | 158 | 0.421 | | Changeup | 22.3% | 0.0% | 85.7 | 109 | | | | | Slider | 2.0% | 2.2% | 84.6 | 109 | | | | | Sweeper | 20.3% | 45.1% | 82.8 | 109 | 78 | 97 | 0.323 | After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn’t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he’s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn’t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Davis Martin | 44 | 25.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 38.6% | 1.64 | 2.46 | | Logan Gilbert | 44 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 15.4% | 36.7% | 4.30 | 4.43 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 21.8% | 28.9% | 94.0 | 96 | 111 | 102 | 0.356 | | Sinker | 20.2% | 11.5% | 92.8 | 86 | | | | | Cutter | 10.3% | 19.5% | 89.6 | 89 | 105 | 82 | 0.468 | | Changeup | 10.7% | 21.4% | 90.1 | 86 | 45 | 85 | 0.356 | | Curveball | 5.8% | 14.3% | 82.1 | 91 | | | | | Slider | 31.3% | 4.4% | 87.1 | 95 | | | | Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He’s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches — his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year — so even if they’re making good contact against his fastballs, they’re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.

The Big Picture: