NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks — Texas Motor Speedway

1 / 1

NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks — Texas Motor Speedway

1 / 1

NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks — Texas Motor Speedway

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

🏁Wurth 400: Key takeaways

• Best pre-qualifying bet: William Byron (+1100) — Frequently at the front here.
• Best pre-qualifying value: Chase Briscoe (+1600) — Issues beyond his control at Talladega, Texas cloud his form.
• Best pre-qualifying prop bet: Daniel Suarez Top 10 — Don't sleep on the No. 7 car at this oval.
• Track: Stay in the main groove and don't give up spots on pit road.
• Weather: Seasonably mild with overcast skies, but no rain.

Wurth 400 odds: Favorites & full field

The Wurth 400 runs at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of 5-2.

Check out the full Wurth 400 field here.

Best bets card (updated Saturday)

• Outright: William Byron (+1100)
• Outright: Chase Briscoe (+1600)
• Top 10: Daniel Suarez (+265)
• Matchup: Tyler Reddick (+100) over Denny Hamlin

Who's hot? Who's not?

• 🔥 Austin Cindric  — Average finish of 9.8 over last five races.
• ❄️ Christopher Bell — 17th or worse in four of last five races.

Track breakdown: What wins at Texas Motor Speedway?

• It's notoriously tough to pass at Texas Motor Speedway despite the wide racing surface, as traction is difficult to find outside the ideal racing line.
• Single-car spins and blown tires are a common theme at Texas. The best way to avoid them is to race out in front in the clean air.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

• Toyota has won only two of the last 16 editions of this race.
• Oddly, P3 is the best starting position historically at Texas, with eight wins from 45 races. The pole has won only five times.
• A Top 10 starting position has accounted for 73.3% of all wins at Texas.

Drivers to watch

• William Byron has started third or better in three of his last five starts at Texas. However, his 2023 victory here came from the 18th starting spot.
• Ty Gibbs leads the Cup Series in average starting position at 7.0 (four starts).

Odds movement & market notes

• Brad Keselowski took a huge drop from +3500 when the odds first opened to +1800. My Wurth 400 sleeper picks identified him as a live long shot.
• People love backing a winner, and that's why Tyler Reddick and Carson Hocevar has taken multi-point tumbles heading into Saturday.

Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick 1: William Byron to win (+1100)

Can put an end to season-long losing streak.

• Track Fit: Third in average finish among full-timers here.
• Recent Form: Seventh or better in five of last seven overall.
• Market Value: Anything above +800 is a steal.

Risk: Has only led 34 laps in 2026.

Pick 2: Chase Briscoe to win (+1600)

Take 2 for trying to transfer Ford form to Toyota at Texas.

• Track Fit: Had three-race Top 10 streak here interrupted by suspension issues in 2025.
• Recent Form: Was building momentum before wrecking at Talladega.
• Market Value: +1200 or higher is fair.

Risk: Only two Top 5s in last eight overall.

Best Top 10 bet

Pick: Daniel Suarez to finish Top 10 (+265)

Texas is one of Suarez's top tracks.

• Track Fit: Average finish of 8.75 over his last four races here.
• Recent Form: Only one Top 10 in last five but floor is high with no DNFs.
• Market Value: This price will plummet if he qualifies well.

Risk: Only two wins in over 300 Cup Series races.

Best matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick: Tyler Reddick (+100) over Denny Hamlin

Hamlin's Texas form is nothing to fear.

• Matchup Advantage: Reddick has the best average rating among active drivers at Texas.
• Key Stat: Hamlin has one win here since 2010, and only three additional Top 5s.

Risk: Both drivers have multiple finishes outside the Top 20 lately at this volatile track.

How to watch the Wurth 400

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Wurth 400.

Texas Motor Speedway weather

There will be overcast skies over Fort Worth, TX, but only a 10% chance of rain. Winds will be at about 10mph on an 82-degree Sunday.

Previous Wurth 400 winners

Wurth 400 betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Wurth 400?

The 2026 Wurth 400 is set for Sunday, May 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

Where will the 2026 Wurth 400 be held?

Texas Motor Speedway hosts the Wurth 400.

Who is the 2026 Wurth 400 favorite?

Denny Hamlin is favored at +400.

Who won the Wurth 400 last year?

Joey Logano took the checkered flag in last year's rendition of this race.

How do Wurth 400 prop bets work?

You can select one driver to finish ahead of another, or pick a driver to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 in the race.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.