NBA Panic Meter Power Rankings: Which teams should be most concerned about the first round — and the future?

13. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers should hope Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves return soon, because if Kevin Durant beats them back, the Rockets could get on a roll that Los Angeles does not want to be a part of. And, yes, I am implying that they could become the first team ever to lose a series when leading 3-0. These Rockets have it in them, if they can just catch fire, but the return of Dončić or Reaves should pour water on them.

12. Portland Trail Blazers

What do the Blazers have to worry about? Sure, they will lose to the Spurs, probably in five games. But nobody figured them for the second round anyhow. A lot of folks didn’t have them penciled in for the seventh seed, either. But Deni Avdija is a Playoff Guy, as his downhill game translates to a postseason style of play. And they have the defense, too. They just need one more (big) piece. Will a new owner spend to get it?

11. Orlando Magic

The Magic were left for dead two weeks ago. Coach Jamahl Mosley was sure to be fired. But they have resuscitated themselves. They dominated the Hornets in the second play-in tournament game and stole a 2-1 lead against the top-seeded Pistons in the first round, looking a lot like the team everyone expected at the start of the season, tough and connected. Would an upset be enough to save Mosley’s job?

10. Phoenix Suns

The Suns outperformed expectations all season. They’ve just met a Thunder team that is deeper and better constructed. They found something in Jordan Ott, a coach who instilled a winning culture when there was none. Same goes for Dillon Brooks. He brought an attitude to this team. Now, they need more talent. How they get it without control of their draft picks and much financial flexibility is another question.

9. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors managed to even things up in their first-round series with the Cavaliers, and that’s all anyone could ask for in Toronto, where they have a ton of good players and not a great one. Giannis Antetokounmpo, anyone? The Blazers, who should make a run at the two-time MVP, will have competition for his services. But first Toronto must finish a first-round series, where a win would be gravy on a wholesome season.

8. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks, without Trae Young, who they traded for scraps, are locked in a 2-2 series with the third-seeded Knicks. One of those scraps was the expiring contract of CJ McCollum, who has earned a new contract in Atlanta. Might they be a Giannis suitor? The playoffs have certainly boosted the market for the superstar’s services. Can the Hawks bounce back from a blowout in Game 4 to extend their audition even further?

7. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have performed about as well as could have been expected, given the fact they weren’t even guaranteed a playoff spot. They have largely been without Joel Embiid, whose contract may be the worst in the league. He returned for Game 4, but his inability to play defense two weeks from an appendectomy was not a shock. Philadelphia continues to ride with Embiid, for better or worse. Mostly worse.

6. New York Knicks

The Knicks, whose owner James Dolan issued a Finals-or-bust ultimatum this season, do not look like serious title contenders, as they are deadlocked with the Hawks through four games. Coach Mike Brown’s offense is sputtering at times, and there are inherent defensive issues within the pick-and-roll combination of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. They have limitations, and they are hitting them.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Yes, the Timberwolves hold a 3-1 lead over the Nuggets. And, yes, they have played a terrifying brand of defense against the NBA’s 2023 champions. But they lost Donte DiVincenzo for the remainder of the season to an Achilles tear and Anthony Edwards for multiple weeks to a knee injury. Games 5 and 7 are in Denver. Even if they can survive, what chance do they have of competing against San Antonio sans Edwards?

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert did not issue an ultimatum, but everyone knows the deal. If this core cannot make the conference finals, they have no chance of staying together next season. They already flipped 26-year-old Darius Garland for a 36-year-old James Harden, and if that doesn’t work out — especially if the Cavs lose in the first round — that could spell disaster in Cleveland. Yet, three teams have it worse.

3. Houston Rockets

Barring the first-ever comeback from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA, the Rockets will lose to a Lakers team that is missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. There is shame in losing to a 41-year-old LeBron James, even if Kevin Durant has missed three of the four games in the series. Big changes are on the horizon in Houston. Could head coach Ime Udoka be the first to go in the event of a first-round exit?

2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets lost Game 4 to a Timberwolves team that had lost DiVincenzo and Edwards to injury over the course of the evening, falling behind 3-1 in their series. They still have a shot, but they are too dependent on Aaron Gordon’s health to seriously consider navigating the gauntlet that is Minnesota, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. They are failing Jokić, and that cannot happen. Major shakeup in Denver, too?

1. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons had a flaw and failed to address it. They could have chased Michael Porter Jr., or Lauri Markkanen, or someone who could create when defenses collapse onto Cade Cunningham. But they rode with their roster, and now they’re facing a 2-1 deficit against an Orlando team that has just looked better than them. Might the East pass the Pistons by without them ever getting a chance to compete?