NBA play-in predictions: Heat-Hornets? Trail Blazers-Suns? Our takes on who will advance

The 2026 NBA postseason is here! The play-in tournament tips off Tuesday with two high-stakes matchups.

In the East, a couple of Southeast Division rivals will face off in an elimination game, as the No. 9 seed Charlotte Hornets host the No. 10 seed Miami Heat. The winner will advance with a shot at earning the No. 8 seed on Friday against either the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic. The loser will go home.

In the West, the No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns will host the No. 8 seed Portland Trail Blazers in a battle of teams that have exceeded expectations this season. The winner will earn the No. 7 seed in the playoffs and a first-round series with the San Antonio Spurs. The loser will have one last chance to earn a playoff berth on Friday in a matchup with either the LA Clippers or Golden State Warriors.

Who will advance on Tuesday? Our writers break down the matchups and make their picks.

What’s your take on Heat-Hornets?

Morten Stig Jensen: This will be an enormously difficult test for Miami. Both the Heat and Hornets are interesting offensive units, in the sense that Miami has been running like mad men all season, and the Hornets have become one of the most efficient 3-point shooting squads in all of basketball.

That's also where they differ. Miami is, at best, a mid-tier 3-point shooting team, and if you think the Heat can offset that by some elite conversion rate by their primary big man, Bam Adebayo, think again. Adebayo hit just 44.2% of his total shots this season, leaving little avenue for the Heat to gain an offensive advantage elsewhere on the floor.

If they get into a running game with the Hornets, that might not work to their benefit, which further underlines the need for Miami to go back to what it’s mostly known for: Gritty defense. However, that hasn't been as staple of a calling card as in the past.

Kelly Iko: It’s a pleasant surprise that a play-in game could produce such a high-level coaching matchup. The Charles Lee-Erik Spoelstra tactical battle is as tantalizing as I’ve seen in quite some time at this early juncture.

This game simply boils down to pace, pressing and proficiency. One of the reasons why Charlotte has been such an elite offensive unit — third in offensive rating and sixth in halfcourt efficiency since the trade deadline — is its ability to play at its own tempo. The Hornets are 29th in pace since the All-Star break and 28th in time of possession. They move the ball, probe and prod until they find the shot they want to take.

There’s a catch, though. Force the Hornets to speed up and they generate just .888 points per chance against press defenses, according to Synergy tracking data. Miami, which rarely presses teams (26th in frequency), is absolutely lethal when it does (second in points allowed per chance). Add this to Charlotte’s very quiet struggles against zone defenses — 20th in efficiency — and you have yourselves a chance. Pay attention to Davion Mitchell’s usage in this one, as one of the game’s premier full-court irritants.

Dan Devine: At the risk of oversimplifying, it starts with stops. Miami entered mid-March ranked fourth in the NBA in points allowed per possession, doing its customary good-to-great job at nailing the fundamentals of excellent defense with Erik Spoelstra and Adebayo at the controls. Over the final month, though, the Heat’s formerly staunch defense buckled: 22nd in points allowed in the paint, 29th in opponent turnover rate, and 30th — dead last — in defensive efficiency.

The glass-half-full case, if you’re a Miami fan: A decent chunk of that defensive decline stems from opponents shooting a scorching 41.1% against the Heat on 3-point tries over the past month — well above their full-season success rate, and a mark seemingly ripe for regression. Glass half empty? Led by LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, the Hornets ranked third in team 3-point accuracy this season, second in 3-point attempts and first in 3-point makes — including 36 combined triples against Miami in their last two meetings.

If Spoelstra, Adebayo and Co. can find a way to limit the number and quality of 3-point looks that Charlotte’s able to generate, they’ll have a shot to advance. But if they can’t stop the drive-and-kick game in the man-to-man, and if the Hornets can exploit the openings in Miami’s zone, a Charlotte offense that’s been the NBA’s best since mid-December may well send the Heat home for a long, hard summer.

What’s your take on Blazers-Suns?

Dan Devine: Can Portland take care of the ball? At its best, a Phoenix defense that features point-of-attack pests and physical ball-hawks like Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin, Collin Gillespie and Oso Ighodaro applies the kind of ball pressure that can create mistakes. For the season, the Suns ranked third in opponent turnover percentage, fourth in steals and fifth in deflections; they forced turnovers on nearly 20% of Portland’s offensive possessions across their three meetings this season.

Interrupting and/or prematurely ending Blazers trips with a cough-up would be one hell of a way for the Suns to mitigate the significant physical advantages of a Portland squad that can battering-ram the paint with downhill drives by Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson and the just-returned Shaedon Sharpe, and hammer the offensive glass for second chances with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III. That size and physicality advantage could lead the Blazers to their first postseason victory of any kind in nearly five years … if a team that ranked dead last in turnover rate this season can manage to get its collective butterfingers under control.

Jensen: There's no getting around the fact that the Suns have surprised us all. They have a top-10 defense, and the best player on the floor in Devin Booker, both of which are legitimate advantages, especially against a young team like the Blazers that is still trying to find its identity.

However, the Blazers just have more potential outcomes in regards to players stepping up. Avdija, Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Holiday, and even Scoot Henderson can theoretically all explode for 30-plus, meaning there is simply a level of unpredictability with them that the Suns don't have. Adding fuel to Portland's fire is Toumani Camara, who has grown into one of the league's better 3-and-D wings. He's getting up outside shots at a high rate and is by far the best switchable defender on the floor.

The Suns might be more seasoned, but are they outright better? It's tough to find a real argument on their behalf that isn't “Devin Booker will find a way.” Of course, that is indeed a real scenario we can't lose sight of.

Iko: Can I call this the mystery box game? I’m comfortable saying I have absolutely no idea how this one will shape out.

The issue with Phoenix having Booker, Brooks and Jalen Green for all of 133 minutes across 10 games (barely breaking even, +0.7 net rating) is that the Suns can’t really look at any of their three regular-season meetings with Portland as a base. Green appeared in one alone, so did Brooks, and the third had Booker and Brooks without Green. As I wrote last week, this team is essentially figuring itself out in real time, which can be extremely dangerous in these high-stakes one-offs.

I’m going to lean heavily into the possession game for this one. Both Portland and Phoenix are quality offensive rebounding units and both have a knack for forcing turnovers. (I must add, however, that Sharpe plus Clingan is an absolute terror on the glass, swallowing nearly 40% of the Blazers’ misses. That’s like two Steven Adams.)

Expect Portland, with a number of ball stoppers in Holiday, Camara and Matisse Thybulle, to switch early and often against a Phoenix team that doesn’t move the ball a ton — and struggles against switches. This is going to be a slugfest that goes all the way down to the wire.

Predictions: Who's advancing?

Iko: Suns and Hornets. I’m going with Phoenix, which has too much individual talent at home to allow a Blazers upset, and Charlotte, which should become the East team no one wants to see in a seven-game series.

Devine: Suns and Heat. I’ll take Phoenix, because I don’t trust the Blazers on the road, and Miami, because we’ve all spent too much time enjoying the Hornets lately, and this is, at base, a cruel universe designed to humble us.

Jensen: Suns and Hornets. Never bet against Devin Booker, who can almost single-handedly win you a game. I believe the Blazers are more fun to watch, but that is neither here nor there in the game of predictions. As for Heat-Hornets? Gimme something that buzzes, as it just feels like it's their time.