NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model backing Jaylen Brown for 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 21

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NBA prop betting has become increasingly popular in recent years, and some of the game's biggest stars will be on full display in the 2026 NBA Playoffs on Tuesday night. Celtics guard Jaylen Brown has been spectacular on offense this season, and he's been red-hot in recent weeks. Brown, who has scored 26 or more points in 11 of his past 12 games, averaged 28.7 points per game during the regular season, which ranked fourth in the NBA. The SportsLine Projection Model has taken that recent success into account, and is backing Brown to go Over his scoring total (25.5) for Tuesday NBA player props.

The model is also backing Jabari Smith Jr. to be an effective rebounder when the Houston Rockets battle the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 p.m. ET. Smith Jr. logged 12 rebounds in Houston's Game 1 loss, and his over/under for total rebounds against Los Angeles is 6.5. Before locking in Tuesday NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the first full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 24-9 roll (73%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Top NBA player prop picks on Tuesday

• Jaylen Brown, Celtics, Over 25.5 points
• Stephon Castle, Spurs, Over 7.5 assists
• Jabari Smith Jr., Rockets, Over 6.5 rebounds

Jaylen Brown, Celtics, Over 25.5 points

Brown has been an effective scorer for the Celtics down the stretch, scoring 26 or more points in 11 of his past 12 games. He was one of the league's most producitve scorers in the regular season as well, averaging 28.7 points per game, which ranked fourth in the NBA. Brown finished with 26 points in Boston's Game 1 victory over the 76ers, and SportsLine's model is projecting he'll score 28.4 points on average in Game 2.

Stephon Castle, Spurs, Over 7.5 assists

"Castle only shot 4-for-13 from the field in Game 1. Still, he finished with seven rebounds and seven assists," SportsLine expert Mike Barner said. "Including the regular season, Castle has averaged 9.2 assists over his last 14 games. In 12 of those games, he finished with at least seven assists. Game 2 will be played in San Antonio, where Castle averaged 7.6 assists this season."