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NBA player prop picks, odds: Model reveals three best 2026 NBA Playoffs prop bets for Thursday, April 30
TL;DR
Celtics guard Payton Pritchard is projected to score 14.9 points against the 76ers, exceeding his 13.5 over/under. Knicks center Mitchell Robinson is also highlighted for his rebounding potential with an over/under of 5.5 rebounds.
Key points
- Payton Pritchard averages 15 points per game in the playoffs
- Pritchard's over/under for points is 13.5
- Mitchell Robinson's over/under for rebounds is 5.5
- SportsLine Model predicts Pritchard will score 14.9 points
- Model has a 74% success rate on NBA spread picks this season
Payton PritchardMitchell RobinsonBoston CelticsNew York Knicks
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Celtics guard Payton Pritchard has been effective coming off the bench in the NBA Playoffs. He's averaging 15 points per game against Philadelphia and exploded for 32 points in Boston's Game 4 win in Philadelphia. Pritchard and the Celtics look to close out the 76ers on the road, and he could be a focal point for NBA prop picks on Thursday. Pritchard's over/under for total points scored is 13.5, according to the latest NBA betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The SportsLine Projection Model projects he'll exceed that total against the Sixers, predicting he'll finish with 14.9 points, and identifies it as one of Thursday's top NBA player props and NBA best bets today.
The model is also high on Knicks center Mitchell Robinson to be an effective rebounder when New York takes on the Atlanta Hawks at 7 p.m. ET. Robinson averaged 8.8 rebounds per game during the regular season, and his over/under for total rebounds on Thursday is 5.5. Before locking in Thursday's NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model and team of experts at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 25-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at online betting sites and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Top NBA player prop picks on Thursday
- Mitchell Robinson, Knicks, Over 5.5 rebounds
- Payton Pritchard, Celtics, Over 13.5 points
- Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves, Over 10.5 rebounds
Mitchell Robinson, Knicks, Over 5.5 rebounds
Robinson averaged 8.8 rebounds during the regular season, which ranked 13th in the NBA. He's pulled down at least six rebounds in three of his past four meetings with Atlanta, and SportsLine's model is expecting him to be an effective rebounder again with New York looking to close out the Hawks on Thursday night. SportsLine's model is calling for Robinson to finish with 7.8 rebounds on average.
Q&A
What are the best NBA player prop bets for April 30, 2026?
The top NBA player prop bets include Payton Pritchard to score over 13.5 points and Mitchell Robinson to grab over 5.5 rebounds.
How accurate is the SportsLine Projection Model for NBA bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players over the past eight-plus seasons, with a 74% success rate on top-rated NBA spread picks this season.
What are Payton Pritchard's recent performance stats in the playoffs?
Payton Pritchard is averaging 15 points per game in the playoffs and scored 32 points in Boston's Game 4 win against Philadelphia.
