NCAA softball: How can Arizona advance to the Super Regionals?

Despite both relying on offense to fill the gaps their pitching has, the Wildcats have the best pitcher between the two. The best ERA on the Blue Devils’ staff is the 4.32 of KK Mathis, but she hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for NCAA rankings. The top qualifying pitcher on the team is Cassidy Curd, who has an ERA of 4.37. Curd also has the best WHIP on the staff with a 1.54.

Arizona ace Jalen Adams is superior in both ERA and WHIP. Her 3.32 ERA is over a point better than Curd’s. Her WHIP is 1.37.

Adams has already shown that she’s ready for the postseason. She came through with a strong outing in the Big 12 Softball Tournament. While the Wildcats lost their opening game to Arizona State, it wasn’t because of Adams. The senior allowed just two runs in a complete game.

This improvement over her season stats is something the entire Arizona staff needs to show if the Wildcats are to be successful in the postseason. They have demonstrated that in each of their most successful postseasons during the past decade.

The program has advanced to the Women’s College World Series three times since 2019. Each time, the pitching staff at least maintained its season ERA. The two years Arizona won a game in Oklahoma City, its pitchers dropped their ERA considerably.

In 2019, Taylor McQuillin and Alyssa Denham had a combined ERA of 1.67 in the regular season. They dropped it to 1.23 in the postseason. Despite giving up seven unearned runs in eight NCAA postseason games, they still held their opponents to a total of 2.13 runs per game.

In 2021, Denham, Hanah Bowen, and Mariah Lopez kept their combined postseason ERA (2.19) fairly close to their combined regular season ERA (2.18). The problem for Arizona’s staff that year was unearned runs. Their total runs allowed in seven postseason games averaged out to 3.71.

The next season, Bowen combined with Devyn Netz to put on a pitching display no one could have predicted. The duo combined for a 3.61 ERA in the regular season. Once they reached the postseason, that dropped to 2.04 in eight games. Just as importantly, unlike both 2019 and 2021, their defense supported them. None of Arizona’s opponents scored an unearned run in the 2022 postseason.

That defense will also be critical for Arizona this season. The Wildcats’ pitching mantra is “use your defense.”

None of the Arizona pitchers is known for strikeouts. Adams has only struck out 58 batters in her team-leading 147.2 innings pitched. More concerning, she has surrendered 53 walks. That pattern is common for all four Wildcat pitchers.

Freshman Rylie Holder is Arizona’s No. 2 pitcher in every stat. Her 4.64 ERA is second on the team, as are her 92.0 IP. She has also given up 40 walks against just 39 strikeouts. Her strikeouts per inning are slightly higher than Adams but so are her walks per inning.

The Arizona staff also has a habit of giving the opponents free passes via hits-by-pitches. These don’t show up in WHIP, but they have the exact same result as a walk. Most of the HBP come from Adams, who has hit 27 batters this year. Arizona’s 44 hit batters this season are the most in at least a decade.

To counter the baserunners, Arizona relies on a strong defense. The effort is led by Big 12 co-Defensive Player of the Year Regan Shockey in centerfield. She has an arm that should be feared. Throwing out runners has been a common feat all three years of her career. She’s also been part of three double plays in 2026.

The double plays are a feature of the Wildcat defense. Without a strikeout pitcher on the staff, they need a way to get out of jams when opponents put runners in scoring position. Their nation-leading 42 double plays have been the primary method of escape. Those are mostly the work of middle infielders Tayler Biehl and Sereniti Trice, but third baseman Jenna Sniffen has done her share of heavy lifting.

There is a significant downside to the “use your defense” philosophy and aggressively hunting for double plays. The Wildcats have raised their fielding percentage to .973, but it hovered in the .960s for most of the season. It’s the lowest it has been since 2022, the year their 35-year postseason streak was broken. The defense must play cleanly against a Blue Devils team that scores 7.5 runs per game.

The Arizona pitching staff puts an average of 1.69 runners on base per inning. To keep them from crossing home, the defense must limit the official errors, but they also must eliminate the ones the official scorer doesn’t put in the scorebook.

They had at least one of those against ASU in the Big 12 Tournament. The Sun Devils’ first run was officially counted as an earned run, but it was aided by Biehl making an errant throw that ended up in foul territory. That run was the difference in a 2-1 loss.

The fact that Arizona lost 2-1 in what was probably Adams’ best showing of the year points to another issue the Wildcats must address to get to super regionals. The bats must come alive again.

Arizona averages 7.3 runs per game this season but ran into trouble several times late in the year. The Wildcats scored a total of six runs during a late-season trip to Baton Rouge for a nonconference series against LSU. They dropped the first two games by scores of 4-1 and 3-1 before salvaging a 4-2 win on Sunday.

Three weeks later, Arizona was closing out its season at Utah. The Utes had a fairly strong pitching staff, but they were fighting just to get into the Big 12 Tournament.

Arizona opened the series with a 6-1 victory, then things went off-track. The Utes came back with a 5-1 win before run-ruling Arizona 10-2 in six innings on the last day of the regular season. That was followed by the 2-1 loss to ASU in OKC.

Arizona must exploit Duke’s shaky performances in the circle. The Blue Devils’ staff is incredibly hittable with a combined ERA of 4.52. Their 1.64 WHIP is very comparable to the Wildcats’ 1.69, but they do not have a pitcher who has been as successful as Adams. Their 4.74 runs allowed per game are also slightly higher than Arizona’s 4.51.

How the Wildcats do that may look different to people who are used to the power-heavy lineups of years past. Only two players have 10 or more home runs this season. They have the tools to back up Adams and the rest of their pitching staff, though.

Arizona’s offensive success this year has been as much about passing the bat and taking extra bases as hitting bombs. Three players have hit .400 or better over the course of the season. Four did so during Big 12 play. Seven of the nine everyday players hit .314 or better in conference play.

It starts at the top of the order. When Arizona’s No. 1 and No. 2 hitters get on base, it limits what opponents can do with Big 12 Player of the Year Sydney Stewart.

Stewart has been walked 41 times this season. She was walked four times in three games by both Oklahoma and LSU, six times in three games by ASU and Baylor, and seven times in three games by Houston. Six of the seven walks in the Houston series were intentional.

When Shockey and Trice get on base, it not only gives Stewart runners to drive in, but the walks become a bigger risk for opponents. Behind Stewart is Tele Jennings, who hit .451 in Big 12 play. The No. 5 hitter is Grace Jenkins, who has a 1.135 OPS and 12 home runs. Full bases provide opportunities for both.

Arizona was dismissed at its home regional last year. If it wants to do the same to Duke this year, the offense needs to rebound from the disappointment of the last three games. Adams needs to bring her best stuff like she did in Oklahoma City last weekend. Most of all, the Wildcats need to follow their season-long motto.

Trust each other.