NFL Draft day is here: Sources point to early fireworks, a volatile top five and maybe even a QB trade-up

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Did you know that the NFL draft's actual government name is the Annual Player Selection Meeting?

Happy Annual Player Selection Meeting day!

I wrote last week about the lack of buzz around this NFL APSM, but now that it's here, if you aren't excited then you just don't love ball.

I do one mock draft the entire cycle and it is always published one week early. I would love to re-do some of it but I can't break my oath. So instead I write this column with a collection of draft notes and intel that I've gathered ahead of tonight's first round.

Once the Raiders take Fernando Mendoza, sources believe the Jets will be selecting Texas Tech edge David Bailey at No. 2. The Jets have had numerous touchpoints with Bailey over the months. I know the markets and insiders have fluctuated on whether it's Bailey or Arvell Reese, and Reese certainly made it seem like he could be the pick during his meeting with media Wednesday, but I'm sticking with my Bailey pick. Someone recently raised the point that Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich was Stanford's interim head coach just after Bailey entered the transfer portal, so he has had access to unique insights on him.

If I'm right, then in my view, the draft truly begins at No. 3 with the Arizona Cardinals.

🏈 2026 NFL Draft order: Top 10

Inside the Cardinals' draft-changing dilemma

The Cardinals have presented to everyone that they are interested in trading out of No. 3. Finding a trade partner in this draft may be difficult, though. They have also presented as if they are more than comfortable selecting RB Jeremiyah Love if they sit at the pick.

Sources have wondered whether that's the best team-building selection. Love would be guaranteed $50.5 million if taken at No. 3, far more than any other running back in the NFL. Arizona also has a deep running back room led by Tyler Allgeier, who signed a two-year deal with $8 million in guarantees this offseason after splitting time -- and saving his own mileage -- with Bijan Robinson in Atlanta. The team also has James Conner returning after missing most of the season with a foot injury, former third-round pick Trey Benson and Bam Knight on a minimum deal.

That is objectively a lot of resources at a position many consider fungible for a team that won one game the entire autumn and winter. But taking an offensive weapon like Love would send a jolt of energy through the fan base and would certainly aid in jersey and ticket sales.

"Love could go to Arizona if they are looking for ticket sales and that's driven by ownership as a sexy pick," said one NFC team exec.

On the other side of the coin, an agent laid out the reasoning for adding Love if you're the Cardinals. His pass-catching ability can make the numbers on the field work in your favor.

"He can line up in the slot and run the entire route tree," the agent said. "You can then justify it because you have a dual receiver and running back. They'll never admit that because they don't want to pay him as a receiver later. That's how you justify it."

Titans may love a difference-making RB

Tennessee's selection is obviously dependent on what the Cardinals do. For weeks I thought the Titans would eschew a running back in favor of a defensive player for head coach Robert Saleh. I am not as convinced today.

If GM Mike Borgonzi feels Love can make life easier for Cam Ward in Year 2, I think he doesn't care too much about the guaranteed money going to a running back. Freaky Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles cannot be ruled out here, of course.

Giants set for star-studded haul

In my mock I had the Giants taking Love at No. 5 and Caleb Downs at No. 10. I think it's reasonable to assume they will leave this draft with two of Reese, Love, Downs, Sonny Styles, Francis Mauigoa and Jordyn Tyson. This is obviously going to depend on how the board falls. But I went offense-defense for the Giants in my mock, and I think they get players on both sides of the ball by the end of the night.

Tyson is primed to be WR1

The more I talk to folks and the closer it gets to the draft, the more it seems Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson will be the first receiver selected tonight. Sources at multiple teams have told me he's the most talented receiver in the draft. The knock on him has been his injury history. He tore multiple ligaments in his knee in 2022 and has battled various injuries since then.

One exec whose team had medical concerns about Tyson early in April no longer has those concerns today.

Do not sleep on Detroit

There has been plenty of scuttle about teams who could make moves up in the top-half of the draft like the Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints and Rams. One that hasn't been discussed much is the Detroit Lions.

The Lions, per sources, have sniffed around moving up from 17th. Some sources have found it hard to believe GM Brad Holmes would make such a move in this draft because the Lions only have pick No. 50 before selecting again in the middle of the fourth round, and teams are behaving as though 2027 picks are untouchable.

If the Lions do make a big move up, the belief is it would be for an offensive tackle. Holmes made his mark in the 2023 draft when he showed his unafraid to go against the grain (running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell in the first round). Making a significant move up in this year's draft is something I wouldn't put past him.

My guess on Sadiq's draft floor

Reflecting on my mock, if I could have one thing back, it would be that I would have the Vikings trade out of No. 18. I didn't love sending the second safety to a team in the teens as they passed up the best tight end in the draft. I admit the Vikings could take Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq over Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. But if I had another crack at this and the board fell exactly the same way in the previous 17 picks, I would probably have the Vikings trading the 18th pick to someone looking to come up for Sadiq.

It is hard to believe the Vikings and Panthers would pass on Sadiq, and the teams in the bottom-third of the first round surely have a Round 1 grade on him. If they want to ensure they get a real first-rounder with their first-round pick (and frankly the board gets hairy once the 20s begin), moving up to get him makes sense.

Food for thought on the pick-dealing Rams

If the Rams move up in the draft, here's something to keep in mind. Recall when the Rams traded for Trent McDuffie and sent their 2026 late first rounder and a 2027 third-round pick to Kansas City? A source pointed out to me then that the Rams are not operating like they no longer have a third in next year's draft. They may even feel certain they will have one.

When Mike LaFleur left L.A. to become the Cardinals head coach, the Rams promoted Nate Scheelhaase to OC. Scheelhaase is widely considered to be at the top of the next-up list for head coach candidates -- he nearly got a job this past cycle -- and the Rams losing him would result in third-round picks in the following two drafts because he is mixed race.

You can't deal compensatory picks you don't have in hand, but you can operate as though they are coming.

Just like that, there's some drama in Dallas

As written here last week, it would still surprise me if the Dallas Cowboys use their 20th pick to help them move up from 12. I think the Cowboys want to emerge from this with two first-round talents. I'll stick with my mock where they use other assets to move around and preserve that second first. Regardless of who Dallas selects with its two first-rounders, the guess here is we'll spend the summer talking much more about George Pickens' situation.

To start: I don't think the news that Dallas wants Pickens to play under the franchise tag in 2026 changes their draft night plans. Sure, Dallas could absolutely take a receiver if their guy falls to them. They have been quick to remind us all of CeeDee Lamb's selection in 2020.

But specific to Pickens, it is very unusual for a team to pull up the negotiating ladder with three months before the deadline. Teams have until July 15 to work on a long-term extension with a tagged player before he would play that season under the tag alone. For Pickens, he is due $27.3 million next year.

Because he hasn't signed the tag, he can't be fined for not showing up. He's not under contract. And there are a few ways this all plays out other than Pickens signing the tag at some point in the next 12 weeks and reporting to work.

Pickens is not getting a long-term deal from Dallas this offseason.

A source posited the Cowboys may have said they won't negotiate with Pickens because they want the player and his representation to come to them with an offer. It's a negotiating ploy the source said is unlikely to work on agent David Mulugheta (and here's where we note Mulugheta is Micah Parsons' agent). Pickens could put strain on the team by not showing up to training camp or even games, though he would be at risk of missing game checks in excess of $1.5 million for every game missed. In an extreme case, if Pickens doesn't show by Week 10, he would miss the entire season. Le'Veon Bell wound up sitting out a full year when he was on the tag and it worked to his contractual detriment.

A different source raised the possibility that the Cowboys are attempting to signal they would be willing to trade Pickens. No team would threaten to send him an offer sheet because they would have to give up two first-round picks to acquire him, on top of the massive deal they would pay. But if the Cowboys make it known to the player, his agent and, perhaps most importantly, the entire league that they are satisfied with this position this early in the offseason, they may be letting everyone know that said player can be traded for.

No team can trade for Pickens until he signs the tag, which is unlikely to happen over the next 12 hours, which means we aren't getting a draft night trade. A team figuring out the trade compensation along with the contract would take some time, but it is possible to put something together by July 15.

Looks like this one will take some time to resolve.

If not Arizona for Ty Simpson, watch for these two other scenarios

As I wrote last week, Ty Simpson gained more love the closer we got to the draft. NFL folks like how he handles the pocket and believe his arm is better than advertised. There has been momentum for the Cardinals to take Simpson, either by trading up into the backhalf of the first or waiting at pick No. 34. Based on what I've heard, if Arizona does want him, he may not be there at 34.

It is nothing for the Jets -- who own pick No. 33 -- to throw a draft pick at a quarterback this weekend. They have four picks in the top 44 and can manipulate things to get even more in the top 50 to 75. Spending one on the most important position in sports when they have a deeply discounted Geno Smith, a young Brady Cook and a veteran backup Bailey Zappe on the depth chart is not out of the realm of possibility.

The Jets own the 2027 draft with three first-round picks. Taking Simpson this weekend wouldn't preclude them from spending resources next spring on a top prospect. Considering the organization hasn't been able to identify a franchise quarterback across regimes only reinforces the belief it should keep taking shots until it's settled.

Steelers owner Art Rooney II more or less ruled out Pittsburgh taking a quarterback in the first round in a recent interview, even though Aaron Rodgers has yet to give the team a firm answer on his future. Pick No. 33 isn't in the first round, though. Would there be a way for the Steelers to send a package to the Jets and get in front of Arizona come Friday night if they want Simpson enough?

Say whatever you want about where Simpson would go in a draft with better quarterback prospects. The fact is this is the draft he's in, and that's what matters here.

At pick No. 32 the Seahawks have essentially hung a sign on the Space Needle that they are willing to trade back and acquire more draft capital. If you like Simpson enough at 34 then he's worth what you'd give up to get to 32 and secure the fifth-year option.

One other Steelers draft note

I sent the Browns wide receiver KC Concepcion at No. 24 in my mock and I wonder if he makes it past No. 21. He would fill a slot receiver need in Pittsburgh that could make Aaron Rodgers a happy guy -- and that's if Rodgers is indeed Pittsburgh's quarterback this season, news which we are still waiting on.

President Art Rooney II told us in March at league meetings he was expecting an answer on Rodgers' decision by the draft.

I think Philly is one of several teams in 20s who get bigger

Here's your annual "the Eagles could move up or down in the first round" note. I would say they'll come away with an offensive tackle tonight.

Philadelphia picks No. 23 and the 20s are a crapshoot in general. If you think insiders are guessing with their mocks, believe me when I say that NFL GMs are also guessing in this area of the draft. The Chargers could go trenches at 22. The Browns, depending on what they do at No. 6, could trade up from this slot. Chicago could go just about anywhere.

If the board is wiped clean of receivers or linemen, does Buffalo GM Brandon Beane go defense at 26th? How does Trent Williams's new deal through 2027 impact the 49ers' plans at No. 27? There may not be a guard worth selecting at No. 28 for Houston. And now you're firmly in trade-out-of-the-first-round land.

Minnesota's front office due for more change after the weekend

The Minnesota Vikings have nine draft picks this weekend before they embark on their biggest hire of the year: the person in charge of making those picks.

The Vikings opted against rushing a GM hire after firing Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in February, well after the typical window GM firings occur. They stuck with longtime front office executive Rob Brzezinski, the team's EVP of football operations, and he has served as the interim GM during free agency and the draft process.

The search for a new GM will begin after the draft. Sources believe Brzezinski is a strong candidate for the permanent job, or he could even get a promotion. If the Vikings opt for a front-office structure that has been emerging in the NFL in recent years, Brzezinski could serve as some sort of president of football operations as the incoming GM focuses on personnel.

Kevin O'Connell, the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year, is expected to have some say in the direction they go. Some sources feel that since Adofo-Mensah came from the 49ers and Browns and did not work out, the Vikings are unlikely to pluck from those trees this time around.

Here are a handful of names that have been floated by sources who could potentially land interviews with the Vikings, in alphabetical order and with any Browns and 49ers candidates omitted: Chad Alexander (Chargers), Chris Blanco (Texans), Mike Bradway (Chiefs), Trey Brown (Bengals), Ryan Cowden (Patriots), Ed Dodds (Colts), Terrance Gray (Bills), James Liipfert (Texans), Rob McCartney (Buccaneers), John McKay (Rams), Lacne Newmark (Commanders), Nolan Teasley (Seahawks), Tim Terry (Chiefs) and Andy Weidl (Steelers).

The Vikings had a strong candidate pool in 2022 when they hired Adofo-Mensah, and there are three people who are not currently GMs in the league: Glenn Cook (Browns), Catherine Hickman (Browns) and Brandon Brown (Giants.)

Two final things to keep in mind are the Vikings will not have to be in a rush to make the hire since free agency and the draft will be completed. And any hypothetical change to front-office structure would need to go through the league office, which now determines who a team's primary football executive is.

What's going on with those aging, big-name free agents?

More teams have been considering the compensatory pick formula in recent years, and that is the main reason why you won't see teams signing free agents until after the draft.

Players and agents are aware of this. Once the third or so wave of free agency passes, there's little interest in teams signing veterans until after the draft when those signings don't figure into the comp pick formula.

This is where I would expect the Giants to sign a veteran defensive tackle. Perhaps the Texans add a running back after this weekend. Players like receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end David Njoku and rusher Joey Bosa could also find new homes next week.

Another reason is that some players like to know the position on the team and depth chart before signing. If you're a wide receiver, for example, you'd rather wait to see if the team you're signing with on a deal that you feel is already below market will draft a young receiver or two this weekend.

Players who wouldn't pass a physical (Tyreek Hill), players with medical concerns (Marshon Lattimore) and players with off-the-field issues (Stefon Diggs and L'Jarius Sneed) could take more time. Veteran offensive linemen sometimes wait until the dog days of training camp are over before inking.

No tips, please

Like previous years I will not be tipping picks on my social media channels. The draft is meant to be enjoyed, so enjoy it.

Also, my parting advice to all the young men about to be drafted: please remember to remove the quotation marks around the caption your publicist sent you for your sponsored ad.