NFL Draft Prediction Markets Show Widespread Uncertainty Beyond No. 1

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With just over one week until the NFL draft, prediction market data shows there is a lack of clarity regarding where the top prospects will fall.

Key Takeaways

• Several players are favored to be taken at more than one position on the board.
• Seven players are within 10% probability of each other in the eighth pick market.
• Contracts are available in markets for individual picks, a grouping of picks, and teams.

It’s a foregone conclusion that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will play his football for the Las Vegas Raiders next season. The NFL draft prediction market uncertainty begins at No. 2, where Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey (52%) and Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese (50%) are nearly tied at leading prediction app Kalshi.

Reese was as high as 76% on April 3 when Bailey was only at 13%. A massive swing occurred in the time since, building up to what could be a dramatic draft day in Pittsburgh on April 23.

Reese’s slide in the second pick market coincided with him also becoming the favorite to be taken third overall (28%). Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (22%), Bailey (20%), and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (14%) are next in line.

Clarity returns in the fourth pick market, where Love (46%) is a strong favorite to hear his name called. Bailey (13%) is the top challenger.

The fifth overall pick market is also shaping up for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles (30%), who is more than twice as likely to be selected as Maugioa (13%). However, Styles’ probability at Kalshi plummeted from 44% on Monday evening to the 30% mark as of noon Tuesday.

Draft markets continue to move

The lack of direction in NFL draft markets at popular prediction market sites is even more apparent from Nos. 6-10.

Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate (26%) leads the board for the sixth pick, just ahead of Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling (22%).

The seventh pick market is where it becomes difficult to parse between more than two prospects. Love (29%), Styles (18%), Mauigoa (18%), Tate (14%), LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane (14%), and Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (12%) are all in the race to be selected.

The eighth pick is even more cluttered, with Delane (25%), Tate (22%), Bailey (21%), Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. (20%), Downs (17%), Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq (17%), and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson (15%) all in the mix.

The ninth pick market is headlined by Delane and Bain at 18%, followed by Tyson (16%), Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano (13%), Bailey (11%), and Mauigoa (11%).

The bottom of the top 10 offers the first reprieve since the fourth pick market. Downs is a 24% favorite, giving him a bit of cushion on Bain (17%), Delane (15%), and Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods (15%).

NFL prediction market contracts

In addition to NFL draft prediction markets for individual picks, Kalshi has contracts for players to be drafted in the top three, top five, top 10, and first round. These range from surefire prospects to long shots like Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who has a 1% chance of being selected inside the first 32 picks.

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts with “Yes” and “No” outcomes related to events across multiple industries. In the case of the NFL draft, contracts will settle and will either be graded as wins or losses depending on whether the purchased outcome corresponds with what happens on the draft stage.

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