Nikola Jokić vs. Rudy Gobert and the domino effect that has the Nuggets in danger. Is Denver done?

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— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 24, 2026

Gobert is showing why he’s a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, living in Jokić’s airspace with his 7-foot-9 wingspan meeting him at the rim on every drive. Even when the Nuggets run Jokić through screens as an attempt to spring him open, Gobert is effectively sticking to him and preventing easy scoring chances.

Jokić seems spooked. Throughout the series, he has made some uncharacteristic, sloppy decisions, passing the ball out of situations in which he’d normally shoot. Most notably at the end of Game 2 when he had a floater but opted to pass to Christian Braun, who got fouled and missed both free throws.

This is happening despite the fact that Minnesota isn’t doubling Jokić. If Gobert alone can effectively guard Jokić, then passing windows will continue to shut a lot sooner than the Nuggets are used to.

The Nuggets are posting a 107.4 offensive rating in the half-court — down from their scorching 122 rating during the season.

Domino No. 4: Defense

Minnesota is getting more looks on the break: 14.7% of its offensive plays come in transition. That’d rank fifth-highest in the league over a full season. Denver ranked fifth-lowest. Sometimes your best defense is your best offense, and right now Denver’s offensive struggles are hurting the defense.

But even in the half-court, the Nuggets’ defense is struggling. Braun got paid $125 million this offseason and can’t contain dribble penetration. Peyton Watson is out with a hamstring strain. Aaron Gordon missed Game 3 with a calf injury and wasn’t himself before that either. And Jokić’s defensive struggles have carried over from the regular season.

Nikola Jokic had some really rough defensive possessions in the second half of last night's loss. pic.twitter.com/B0sB21hVcF

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnor) April 21, 2026

Jokić was a far more impactful defender in each of his three MVP seasons, and better last year too. The hyperextended knee may have sapped the agility he needed to change directions in tight spaces. Right now, he looks like the younger, heavier version of himself who gave drivers a free lane to the rim.

Jaden McDaniels dunking all over Nikola Jokic…Nuggets proved him right tonight pic.twitter.com/ez97nVdeoU

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnor) April 24, 2026

Jaden McDaniels said after Game 2 that the Nuggets have all bad defenders. He listed Jokić first. So far, Jokić is proving him right.

Is Denver done?

Right now, Jokić and head coach David Adelman are giving Minnesota exactly what it wants: Jokić 3-pointers. Meanwhile, they’ve forgotten the post. Jokić averaged 7.2 post-ups per game during the season. That has fallen to only 15 total through three games. Maybe using the post more wouldn’t work — Gobert has bothered Jokić everywhere else — but it’s worth a try. In past series against Gobert, Jokić post-ups have generated 1.2 points per play. That dwarfs anything else Denver is running right now.

Jokić and Gobert have been colliding since 2020 with two seven-game series, a five-game series, and our current battle. On paper, the arc has mostly bent Jokić's way. He outlasted Gobert's Jazz in the 2020 bubble. He dismissed Gobert's Wolves in five in 2023. Even when Minnesota took the 2024 semis in seven, a defining image of that series was Game 5 — on the night Jokić accepted his third MVP, he torched the Wolves for 40 points, 13 assists, and zero turnovers. Anthony Edwards said afterward: “I just laugh. That's all I can do.”

While the series wins belong to Jokić, the possessions, quietly, belong to Gobert. Through 21 career playoff games between them, Gobert is a +63 in his on-court minutes. Jokić is a -6. So maybe what's happening now isn't a flip. Maybe the scoreboard is catching up.

You can still believe in Jokić, and I do, but it’s impossible not to look at these games and feel the floor shifting. He looks like a shell of himself. His running mates are banged up. Gobert looks better than ever. Maybe this is just Minnesota’s year, and maybe that’s all there is to it.

The Nuggets can still win this series. Just not like this. The cleanest path back for Jokić may not be to go find his jumper. It may be to stop taking it.