Ohtani Shuts Out Rival, Continues to Strengthen Cy Young Case

The Underlying Metrics Are Somehow Even Better

It’s easy to call Ohtani’s hot start good luck, and part of it definitely is. His ERA is much lower than his expected ERA, though the expected mark is still incredibly good at 2.17. The same goes for his .182 expected batting average against. So luck is definitely somewhat of a factor. But, overall, Ohtani’s pitching run value has risen from the 85th percentile (2023) to the 97th percentile (2026). What’s driven this change?

The biggest change has come in his velocity. Since his Tommy John surgery, the velocity has actually gone up quite a bit. In 2023, Ohtani’s two primary pitches were his sweeper and four-seam fastball. The two averaged 83.7 and 96.8 mph respectively. In 2026? He’s using his four-seamer more often and has added almost two miles to it, averaging 98.0 mph. The sweeper’s gone up as well, averaging 84.9 mph. Those are, by far, Ohtani’s two most valuable pitches.

Ohtani is also achieving good marks in underlying statistics like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). That metric ensures that pitchers are graded only based on outcomes that they control (strikeouts, walks, home runs and hit-by-pitches). In that statistic, Ohtani’s posted a 2.52 FIP alongside an xFIP of 3.11. Even though his chase percentage is low (30.9 percent), the whiff percentage ranks in the 89th percentile at 32.0 percent. That ability to miss bats has worked wonders for Ohtani.

The question is if that luck will catch up to him or not. ERA- and FIP- (metrics that adjust ERA and FIP to account for park and league where 100 is average and lower is better) have been historically solid ways to analyze pitching. So far in 2026, Ohtani boasts a 24 ERA- and a 60 FIP- for the best and seventh-best marks in the league, respectively. Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA), a stat that predicts future ERA, paints an even better picture of Ohtani’s ability. He’s posted a 2.95 mark, good for the 11th-best mark in MLB.

Shohei Ohtani: King of the Shutout

Ohtani has pitched four shutout starts so far this year. The craziest part is that he’s done it in just seven starts. That’s been a huge part of his historically low ERA. Tonight, Ohtani added to that by pitching seven shutout innings against the division-rival San Francisco Giants. He scattered four hits and two walks across the outing, but none of them were for extra bases.

The long and short of it is that Ohtani has dominated on the mound this season in a way that he never has before. Honestly, it’s a way that no one ever has before. Despite stiff competition from the likes of Nolan McLean, Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes, if Ohtani continues pitching at this level, he should be able to take home the NL Cy Young award. Only time will tell.

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