Mitchellās Statcast page currently lights up like a Christmas tree. He ranks 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, launch-angle sweet-spot percentage, bat speed, chase percentage, and walk rate. We should be extremely encouraged by all of this. Mitchell is being very selective, he is swinging hard, and he is crushing the ball when he makes contact. These are major harbingers of success.
But that Statcast page also lights up in a bad way. Mitchell is in the bottom-third in squared-up percentage and is crucially in the very bottom percentile leaguewide in whiff percentage and strikeout percentage. As encouraging as the good stuff is, the bad stuff is perhaps even more worrisome. Mitchell swings and misses *a ton.* His strikeout percentage sits at 38.8%; last year, the worst K-rate among qualified hitters was Ryan McMahon at 32.3%. Mitchell is *way* beyond that, to a point that probably isnāt sustainable; the highest single-season K-rate in the last *five years* was when Joey Gallo struck out 34.6% of the time in 2021, and the all-time record for a hitter in a full season (that wasnāt 2020) was Chris Davis at 37.2% in 2017. At 38.8%, Mitchell is approaching Keston Hiura levels ā Hiura struck out in 40.6% of his plate appearances during his last two seasons in Milwaukee.
Given that data, itās fair to ask whether Mitchell is even a viable major leaguer if he continues to strike out that much. He is doing damage when he hits the ball, and the Statcast data in that regard is good. But Mitchell is also rocking a BABIP of .522 right now; the highest BABIP ever recorded (since the dawn of the American League in 1901), according to FanGraphs, was 99 points lower than that. It was in 1923, and the guyās name was Babe Ruth. The highest BABIP in a full season in the last 50 years was Rod Carew at .408 in 1977. Just one of the greatest pure hitters of all time in a season in which he hit .388, had 9.7 WAR, and won the MVP.
Mitchell has always been a high-strikeout player; in the 141 games heād played prior to 2026, he held a career 33.9% strikeout rate. Even that would be too high, but Mitchell has always managed to be relatively productive despite a large number of strikeouts. When you add his other skills to that, it helps too ā Mitchell is very fast and heās a very good fielder. As for decreasing the strikeouts, a glance at the āZonesā page on his Statcast profile tells you what you need to know: he canāt hit pitches up the zone. Pitchers are spamming fastballs in the top third of the zone, and Mitchell is missing them. Until he fixes that, theyāll keep doing it. Itās not a mystery what needs to be done here, but thatās extremely easy for me to say.
If Mitchell *can* work on the strikeout issue, though, he could offer the Brewers something that they need: an outfielder who can play every day, no matter who is pitching for the opposition.
The Brewers have protected Mitchell a bit versus left-handed pitching this season, and heās only got 16 plate appearances, but heās hitting .300 with five walks in those 16 plate appearances, good for a .533 OBP and .833 OPS. Heās doing *damage* against righties ā all of his extra-base hits this year are against right-handed pitching ā but Mitchell is using his patience as a strength against lefties.
This isnāt a one-year blip, either. Mitchell is certainly a better hitter against right-handed pitching in his career (.792 OPS in 422 PA), but heās not bad against lefties. Mitchell has a higher batting average and a higher OBP in his career against righties (.264 versus .253 and .349 versus .346). His career OPS versus lefties is lower (.697 in 88 plate appearances), but that split between lefties and righties isnāt nearly as dramatic as some other players on the Brewers, and that .697 OPS versus lefties is certainly playable.
If Mitchell can find a way to cut down his strikeouts and get some of the power he shows against right-handed pitchers into his profile against lefties, he could become a downright offensive weapon. Again, thatās easy for me to say, and of course we all know the dangers of putting too much faith in Mitchell and his health.
But thereās a good player here, one who is already helping to prop up a struggling Brewer offense. Remember, before the 2025 season there were those who were predicting an All-Star appearance for Mitchell. (Me, I was one of those.) There are some major issues with his game right now, and his career is sort of teetering in a place that could go either direction. But the goal is clear, and if Mitchell can put it all together, the Brewers could really have something.
