Opta Supercomputer reveals odds of Barcelona progressing vs. Atlético in the Champions League

TOPSHOT - Barcelona's Spanish forward #10 Lamine Yamal (L) vies for the ball with Atletico Madrid's Argentine forward #19 Julian Alvarez during the UEFA Champions League quarter final first leg football match between FC Barcelona and Club Atletico de Madrid at Camp Nou Stadium in Barcelona on April 8, 2026. (Photo by Lluis GENE / AFP via Getty Images) | AFP via Getty Images

FC Barcelona have a mountain to climb, but its not Mount Everest, according to Opta’s Supercomputer. The stats company has revealed their forecast for the pivotal UEFA Champions League clash against Atlético Madrid.

While Barcelona are far from the favorites in the tie, the Supercomputer says they do have a decent chance. First, the analysis says Barcelona have a 50.4% chance of winning on the night compared to a 22.5% chance of a draw and a 27.1% chance of a loss. However, even a win would not be enough to secure progression, as Atlético hold a 2-0 first leg lead.

Barcelona’s chances of advancing are at 20.4%. That involves either a 3+ goal win or a 2 goal win followed by penalty shootout success. It’s slim, but far from impossible. Part of the reason Barça’s chances are not too bad is that they dominated the first leg despite losing, and they have been able to beat Atléti this season in other matches.

Opta’s Supercomputer simulated the match 10,000 times and found that while Barcelona were more likely to crash out than not and by a substantial margin, there were many scenarios where the Catalans dug deep and pulled it off. Even if Barcelona defy the odds and not only win on the night but progress, they will have to continue facing up difficult opponents if they intend to lift the trophy.

The Supercomputer calculated Barcelona’s chances of winning the Champions League at 14.74% prior to the loss to Atléti. Now, they have shrunk to just 3.62%. Those odds will rebound strongly if the Catalans manage to eliminate Atléti.