Pack9 Opponent Preview: North Carolina

Tell me about this team

It’s really not hard to figure out the recipe for success for UNC this year. They have one of the nation’s best pitching staffs mixed with an experienced lineup that doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses. It’s a combination that has come through in the clutch time and again this year, with UNC sporting a 7-0 record in games either decided by a single run or that went extra innings.

The pitching staff is fantastic, sporting a collective 3.50 ERA (7th in the country), 10.8 BB%, and 23.8 K% (40th) on the year with opponents hitting just .234 off them (17th). A junior, Jason Decaro, is featured as the ace of the weekend rotation, but the rest of the staff flipped on its head. Their #2 starter is a sophomore, the #3 starter is a junior, the top three bullpen arms are comprised of two freshman and a sophomore, and the four depth arms behind them are all juniors or seniors.

If you’re looking for a couple areas of optimism here, it’s that UNC’s 10.8 BB% is rather pedestrian (140th) while State’s hitters are great at working walks (13.7 BB%, 15th). Tar Heel opponents are also sporting just a .301 BABIP, the 34th lowest figure in the country. A little regression to the mean with some runners getting on via walk could spell success for the Wolfpack’s offense.

Back to UNC’s lineup, 8 of 9 starter are either juniors or seniors, which has taken the pressure off the lone freshman to produce. The group just doesn’t have a real weakness, sporting a collective line of .290/.415/.467, 98 2B, 57 HR, 13.8 BB%, 17.1 K%, 55-66 SB. That’s going to win a lot of games. That lineup also happens to be the ACC’s top fielding unit, ranking 1st among in the conference in fielding percentage, 2nd in double plays, and 1st in fewest stolen bases allowed.

It sucks to say, but this is just a really good team that knows how to win close games.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: LHP Cooper Consiglio(JR) vs RHP Jason Decaro (JR)

Friday: TBD vs RHP Ryan Lynch (SO)

Saturday: TBD vs LHP Folger Boaz(JR)

Key Players:

Offense

SS Jake Schaffner (JR) – .352/.463/.551, 14 2B, 5 HR, 12.7 BB%, 10.2 K%, 23-26 SB. Lefty-hitting North Dakota State transfer. Good size at 6’2, 175 lbs, he should move up draft boards after proving the bat will play against this level of pitching. Hitting .468/.563/.688 in ACC play.

CF Owen Hull (JR) – .373/.487/.530, 17 2B, 4 HR, 15.5 BB%, 14.7 K%, 16-19 SB. Lefty-hitting George Mason transfer. Big centerfielder at 6’4, 215 lbs. Was a draft-eligible sophomore last year but went unselected. Like Schaffner, the hit tool has carried over. Hitting .427/.500/.613 in ACC play.

C/DH Macon Winslow (JR) – .306/.450/.526, 11 2B, 9 HR, 17.7 BB%, 14.7 K%, 0-2 SB. Righty-hitting transfer from Duke, which is an unforgiveable sin. He was good with Duke but has hit a much higher level of play with UNC, which has skyrocketed his draft profile. Has thrown out 8-of-18 attempted base stealers this year.

3B Cooper Nicholson (JR) – .268/.459/.624, 14 2B, 13 HR, 16.4 BB%, 21.3 K%, 0-0 SB. JUCO transfer who mashed 41 HR over two years at Iowa Central CC. Big power for a 5’11, 195 pounder, but strikeouts have been a bit of an issue.

2B Gavin Gallaher (JR) – .273/.366/.459, 8 2B, 9 HR, 12.2 BB%, 16.3 K%, 6-6 SB. Big things were expected of Gallaher after hitting .325/.409/.603 last year, but he’s having a bit of a draft year slump, at least compared to last year. His bat is heating up of late, though, with 15 RBI in his last 7 games.

1B Erik Paulsen (JR) – .303/.442/.461, 7 2B, 7 HR, 15.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, 0-0 SB. Lefty-hitting Stony Brook transfer. Like Schaffner and Hull, the bat has transferred with him despite moving up a level. Big 6’3, 215 lbs frame, was a Freshman All-American in 2024. Was a two-way player at Stony Brook, sporting a two-year line of 2-3, 7 SV, 4.18 ERA, 51.2 IP, 5.9 BB%, 11.4 K%.

Pitching

RHP Jason Decaro (JR) – 9-2, 1.91 ERA, 66.0 IP, 10.6 BB%, 22.3 K%. Not overpowering stuff, but just knows how to pitch and get outs. Low-90’s heater that gets a lot of ride. Also features a slider, curve, and change. He prefers the curve against righties and the changeup against lefties. With his 6’5, 230 lbs frame, there’s probably more gas in the tank.

RHP Ryan Lynch (SO) – 4-4, 3.75 ERA, 69.2 IP, 7.2 BB%, 21.5 K%. Big 6’4, 235 lbs frame, he was a Freshman All-American last year as a reliever and has made the transition to the starting rotation with ease. Has allowed just 2 ER over his last three starts, and hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a any of his last six starts. Draft-eligible this year with a mid-90’s sinker, as well as a four-seamer to get more ride. The slider is his best offspeed offering, but he does have a promising change.

LHP Folger Boaz(JR) – 3-1, 6.41 ERA, 46.1 IP, 8.6 BB%, 19.4 K%. It’s been an interesting run for the 6’2, 212 pounder, moving from starter as a freshman to reliever last year after having UCL surgery that cut his freshman year short, and then back to the rotation this year. His stuff plays up more in a reliever role, featuring a low-90’s fastball, solid slider, and cutter.

RHP Caden Glauber (FR) – 7-0, 4 SV, 1.84 ERA, 58.2 IP, 12.9 BB%, 28.6 K%. Big time freshman with a projectable 6’4, 210 lbs frame. He’s a mid-90’s fastball guy with a slider and a changeup that are real good. Should move into the starting rotation next year if some SEC school doesn’t throw a giant money bag his way.

RHP Walker McDuffie (SO) – 6-2, 4 SV, 2.60 ERA, 52.0 IP, 13.6 BB%, 30.5 K%. The low-90’s heater is solid, but it plays up thanks to his devastating slider, which he throws a ton (think Jacob Dudan-level slider usage from his days as a reliever). Like Lynch, was a Freshman All-American last year, but unlike Lynch he’s not a candidate to move to a starting gig in the future.

LHP Jackson Rose (FR) – 3-0, 1 SV, 1.57 ERA, 34.1 IP, 12.4 BB%, 23.4 K%. Another guy with a good frame at 6’3, 205 lbs. He doesn’t have the heat that his fellow freshman Glauber has, but he’s a high-80’s, low-90’s guy with two offspeed offerings. He’ll use the changeup more than the slider.

Quick! Fun Facts!

The series finale will be senior day for NC State, with Dalton Bargo, Brayden Fraasman, Drew Lanphere, Wyatt Peifer, Danny Heintz, Julien Peissel, and Landon Carr all being honored. Lanphere, Peissel, and Carr are all redshirt-juniors and thus have a year of eligibility remaining should they decide to use it.

Only 14 of UNC’s 51 games this year have been true road contests, with the Tar Heels sporting a 12-2 record in those games. The losses came at Clemson and at Duke. NC State is 23-8 at home this year.

ACC opponents have only attempted 14 stolen bases in 27 games versus North Carolina this year.

The Key To A Series Win For State

NC State is going to have to get good pitching and keep the Tar Heel bats off the board. Unfortunately, that’s not State’s strength right now with such a depleted pitching staff. Instead, the Wolfpack should go with an offense-first lineup and hope the sticks are hot for the weekend.

Prediction

Man, I don’t want to talk about it.

Outcome: Screw it… State takes 2 of 3.