Paths to Victory: How can Sean Strickland pull off another upset and defeat Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328?

For Chimaev, there’s no question of how he will or should approach the fight because the answer is always the same: take the opponent down and dominate. And while Strickland has historically been good at defending takedowns and getting up when they do land, Chimaev is a different animal entirely. While Fluffy Hernandez wanted to get in range to shoot, and Strickland made that difficult, Chimaev will simply teleport onto an opponent’s ankles with a hyper-fast shot from way outside. That is certainly his best path forward against Strickland, who he is not used to stuff lowing singles, and not remotely the level of athlete Chimaev is.

Once he gets the fight to the ground, expect Chimaev to clamber onto the back quickly, as Strickland likes to get to the fence and posture down to stand, opening the door for Chimaev to move to a dominant position and start hunting the finish.

If there’s one thing Chimaev should look to do differently this fight, it’s open up more with his ground and pound. Chimaev has never been a big punisher on the floor, instead chasing submissions, but adding that extra tool to his arsenal will make him an even bigger threat and mitigate some of Strickland’s cardio advantage, should this go into the later rounds. Also, just as a small note, if Chimaev can time and catch one kick and turn that into a takedown, Strickland might be forced to abandon one of his best weapons, so that’s something to consider.

Paths to Victory for Sean Strickland at UFC 328

The UFC 328 main event is a tricky one to discuss because the truth of the matter is, there aren’t many questions to answer. Both Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland are fully built fighters who bring the same game to the cage every time. So the only real question is, can Sean Strickland defend Chimaev’s takedowns?

It’s going to be a challenge. Strickland is a good defensive wrestler, and even better at getting back to his feet, but the tools he normally employs for that might not be as effective against Chimaev, who can simply hit his big, red “ATHLETICISM” button when he needs to. Strickland is a good fighter, but he’s going to be moving at half the speed of Chimaev, especially early, and even his preferred strategy of using the cage to stand opens up opportunities for Chimaev to sneak to the back, as he did against Robert Whittaker.

Big picture, the plan for Strickland is pretty simple: survive early, make Chimaev work, pile on jabs and teeps to start draining Chimaev’s gas tank, and take over in the later rounds with volume. But the key to that is not punting the early rounds, because if Chimaev DDPs him, “Borz” won’t gas out. Strickland has to constantly fill the space between them with bone, and never allowed Chimaev to consolidate position on the floor. It’s a very tall task, and one I’m not entirely sure he can pull off.

Questions

Outside of the obvious big questions surrounding this fight, the only other question is how much, if at all, the shenanigans surrounding this fight will play into the fight itself. Chimaev and Strickland have said some horrible stuff to each other, and Strickland in particular has seemed rattled at times this week. It’s unlikely that either man will really be affected too much by any of this, but if somehow one is, that might be curtains for them on Saturday.

Predictions

On paper, you can make a case for why Strickland wins this fight, but I’m not buying it. It’s like Jurassic Park: sure, in theory, having all female dinosaurs means they can’t breed, but in practice, the raptors are breaking out of their enclosure and hunting civilians down.

In absolutely perfect circumstances, Strickland could pull off another remarkable upset, making one of the strangest careers in recent memory, but in practice, Chimaev is going to tackle and tap him pretty quickly, and we’ll all look back and say, “Oh yeah, he might be the best fighter of this generation. That makes sense.”

Khamzat Chimaev def. Sean Strickland via submission (rear-naked choke) — 4:11, Round 1.