Peak Perspective: Evaluating the Future PAC-12 Conference

Otherwise, expect the conference to be full of good, but not great, football programs. San Diego State and Fresno State have strong histories over the last decade or so, winning some conference championships of their own. Both programs have had some down years recently following coaching changes, but were on the upswing in 2025. Colorado State and Utah State have been inconsistent programs, but their best years should not be discounted. Texas State has won 23 games over the past three years, and the two holdovers, Oregon State and Washington State, have had past success, but are now figuring out how to navigate football spending on a budget.

It would be fair to expect the PAC to produce the Group of Six Champion about 40% of the time, with an average of five bowl teams every year. That’s the makings of a solid mid-major football conference, but this projection won’t be enough to unseat the American as the premier G6 conference.

Men’s Basketball

The Mountain West has been regarded as a strong men’s basketball conference, but how does the new-look Pac-12 fare? It might be most helpful to sort teams into different tiers.

Gonzaga is the clear top program in the new PAC and was a huge get by the conference, finally luring them away from the West Coast Conference. Not only will they be in the NCAA Tournament every year, but they will also be a ranked team and one of the better seeds. Behind them, Utah State and San Diego State figure to go dancing nearly every season, and flirt with the rankings at different points in the season. While in some ways, the Bulldogs are in a class of their own, these teams form a strong trio at the top of the conference.

The Broncos and Rams are in the next tier. Those two teams are usually strong teams, but not in the way as the other three. They will help form a solid middle of the conference and be tough matchups every game. Boise State and Colorado State should also be slated to reach March Madness every few years.

The last four teams are more of a mixed bag. Oregon State and Texas State were basically .500 teams last season, but Washington State and Fresno State looked more like bottom-feeders, barely getting double-digit wins. However, all four of these teams have won 20 or more games within the past five seasons, and in the portal era, surprise positive seasons can happen as quickly as the sudden fallouts.

It seems like that the Pac-12 can have a floor as a three-bid league, with four half the time, and maybe five every once in a while, depending on the year. All of that leads to being quite the basketball conference.

Baseball

This wasn’t discussed in the MW version last year, but it’s worth bringing up this time around.

Oregon State has been a top baseball program for years, ranked nearly every season, despite being in a colder climate than many other top programs. Even as an independent, the Beavers have kept winning.

They will be joined by two solid baseball programs in Fresno State and San Diego State. The Bulldogs have won three conference championships since 2019, including the last two. The Aztecs haven’t won a conference championship since 2018, but they have won five overall since 2013.

The PAC has also added Dallas Baptist as an affiliate member for baseball. The Patriots have made the NCAA Tourney 14 times since moving to the D1 level in 2004. Then there’s Gonzaga, which was actually a PAC-12 baseball affiliate before the last round of realignment and has a pretty strong program. The Buldogs have been to the tournament eight times since 2013, most recently in 2021 and 2022.

The conference will obviously have the conference champ qualify for the Road to Omaha each year, and more often than not, it will be Oregon State. But with these other teams, if a second team can make the field of 64 every few years, that should be a significant feather in the Pac-12’s cap moving forward.

Finances

This part remains to be seen for both conferences. While both the Pac-12 and the Mountain West have announced new media deals, the total financial terms have not been released at this time.

This likely means that neither side is getting a king’s ransom, as details would have leaked out by now. Members of the Pac-12 were optimistic in the early going, hoping to command annual payouts of $12-15 million for each school. However, failing to secure other premier football programs like Memphis or South Florida put a dent in negotiations.

It is fair to assume that the PAC will have a better annual payout than the Mountain West on the strength of its program brands. The question will be how much better? The larger the annual gap, the quicker schools will start widening the gap between and the schools in the MW. It could also determine how quickly they can turn a profit from any fees they may end up paying.

After all, the other major wild card is the ongoing lawsuits regarding the exit and poaching fees. This could end up being a key decision on whether the Pac-12 is in a good financial position and, ultimately, whether the decision to defect was a beneficial one.

Geography

The Pac-12 conference is named as such because it was originally composed of schools in states along the Pacific coast. As the old version of the conference grew, it moved inland, but preserved its west coast roots with its additions.

Entering this new era, it seems clear that the Pac-12 is once again prioritizing a geographically tight conference, albeit with one clear exception.

Legacy schools Oregon State and Washington State are in states that preserve the Pacific part of the conference, along with a trio of new schools, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Gonzaga. Two other schools, Boise State and Utah State, fit neatly within the conference’s northern geographical footprint. Boise is in the Pacific Northwest part of Idaho, located almost directly south of Pullman and Spokane. Similarly, Logan is not far from Boise, giving the conference five schools in close proximity.

Colorado State isn’t far from Utah State, although it is pretty far inland when looking at a map. But there aren’t any travel concerns, and most of the teams are already used to playing in Fort Collins. Considering the PAC had Colorado as a former member, having another school in that state is no issue for the conference.

Then there is the extreme outlier, Texas State. Located all the way in San Marcos, it is just under 1000 miles from the closest conference-mate (Colorado State), and over 2000 miles from the farthest team in the conference (Oregon State).

Summarizing all of this, the Pac-12 has two main hubs: the lower half of California and another in the Pacific Northwest or adjacent area. These two areas account for seven of the nine schools, with footprints in Colorado and Texas. While Texas is the area that doesn’t fit neatly with the rest of the conference, it is providing a benefit. Getting a footprint in the Lone Star State will help teams recruit players from that area and could lead to more bowl tie-ins in Texas as well.

New Inroads

If comparing this version of the PAC to the old one that fell apart, there aren’t many changes. They basically traded Arizona for Texas and Idaho while maintaining their previous states.

However, looking at this from the perspective of two schools in Oregon and Washington trying to rebuild a conference, the “new” inroads become more important to analyze.

Securing the SoCal area and California in general is vital for any Western Conference. When combined with Texas, the Pac-12 was able to get into the two biggest football states out west and two of the best recruiting states in the nation. It’s nice they can remain in other solid states like Colorado and Utah, and while Idaho doesn’t tip the scales much as an inroad, it does round off the Pacific Northwest region well.

It’s a shame the conference couldn’t get back into Arizona, and Nevada is also a missed opportunity, but the PAC checked off the most important boxes here.

Rivalries

The Mountain West had some strong historical and new rivalries, and quite a few are making their way over to the Pac-12 as well. A few of the notable rivalries:

• Boise State/Fresno State: The Battle for the Milk Can has been great over the years and will likely continue to be in the new conference.
• Fresno State/San Diego State: The Bulldogs have a number of rivals, and a second one will also be part of the PAC. The Bulldogs and Aztecs will continue their series, “The Battle for the Old Oil Can.”
• Oregon State/Washington State: The Beavers and Cougars have played one another going back to 1895, This rivalry should be emphasized even more considering they were a two-member conference for the past two seasons and are the only two holdovers (or leftovers?) from the prevous Pac-12. Despite the long history, the teams don’t have a name for the rivalry, although one of the suggestions online is the “Colombia River Rivalry”, which sounds fun.

There will also be opportunities for new rivalries. The internet is already discussing “The Snake River Rivalry” between Boise State and Washington State given their close proximity. Also, Colorado State and Utah State both have in-state rivals, but since they are neighboring states, perhaps they can become each other’s in-conference rivals going forward. Plus, there’s always the possibility that two teams play competitive games against each other on a yearly basis

Stability

Stability is tricky to define in the ever-changing world of college sports, but it remains essential for a conference to survive. There is no doubt that each and every school would attend a bigger conference if invited. However, that doesn’t mean other conferences are looking to invite all Pac-12 teams.

Their Grant of Rights agreement is heavily redacted, but runs through June 30, 2031 (according to Chris Murray), with provisions if schools leave for a P4 conference. The two leftover schools (OSU and WSU) hold some extra power compared to others with both having to be part of the three-fourths majority to add new players. Plus, they get to distribute the Pac-12 war chest funds over the next three years how they see fit, including not having to share it at all.

The PAC is as stable as any mid-major conferene these days, which is to say, everyone will be keeping their options open, just like everyone else.