Phillies vs. Red Sox Thursday MLB picks: Ranger Suarez likely motivated vs. former Philadelphia teammates

Because Suarez turned down the $22,025,000 qualifying offer from Philadelphia in November, Boston gave up its second- and fifth-highest selections in July's amateur draft and forfeited $1 million in international signing bonus allocation in 2027. Philadelphia got an extra pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft as compensation.

Suarez has been quite good for the Sox so far at 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in seven starts but hasn't gone since throwing four shutout innings vs. Houston on May 3. He left due to right hamstring tightness but simply had one start skipped. Suarez has been knocked around a bit in his first two starts, perhaps trying to justify that big contract, but has not allowed a run in four of five outings since, with a 1.17 ERA over that stretch.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Suarez at 5.5 innings pitched, 5.3 strikeouts, 5.4 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs tonight. While he has never faced the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber (0-for-5, two Ks) and Trea Turner (3-for-10, two doubles) saw him while with other clubs.

"It's hard," said Phillies All-Star catcher JT Realmuto of facing a guy he caught for years but hasn't seen as a batter officially. "You can't really overthink it and try to guess what he's going to do because he's probably not going to do what I think he might. So the last thing I want to do is go up there and try to think about what he's gonna throw me."

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The Phillies were essentially thinking of an eventual Suarez replacement when they acquired the younger Luzardo from the Marlins in December 2024. And a couple of months after Suarez signed his deal this past offseason with Boston, the Phillies locked up Luzardo to a nearly identical five-year, $135 million extension to keep him from free agency after this season.

Luzardo has had it rough at times this year, sitting at 3-3 with a 5.98 ERA, but nearly all his trouble has come at home (1-3, 8.65 ERA) rather than away (2-0, 2.00 ERA). He always has been one of those wildly inconsistent guys due to control. Last Friday vs. Colorado, Luzardo took 95 pitches to complete only three innings after failing to record an out in the fourth (three walks).

Those were the most pitches by any MLB player without completing at least three full since 2022. That followed back-to-back terrific starts where Luzardo had surrendered just two earned runs over 13.3 innings with 18 strikeouts and zero walks. Prior to that, he was 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA through his first five outings of 2026.

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Note that the weather does not look great in Boston tonight, with rain and winds blowing in, but being as it's Philly's last visit of the season to the city, they will do everything to play it. Hard to see many runs scored in that mess, though. I'm being overly cautious on 10.5. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.