Play-off pending? How a draw at the Etihad could set up thrilling finale

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal sit top of the Premier League but Pep Guardiola's Manchester City are lurking six points behind [Getty Images]

It's squeaky bum time in the Premier League title race.

The phrase coined by legendary Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson to describe the tension of the run-in could not be more apt this season.

Leaders Arsenal travel to second-placed Manchester City in a monumental meeting on Sunday (kick-off 16:30 BST) aiming to extend their six-point advantage at the summit.

But, after Mikel Arteta's Gunners suffered a shock home loss to Bournemouth and City fully capitalised with a statement win against Chelsea, City could claw back their deficit from nine points to just three in the space of a week.

The Etihad Stadium encounter may go a long way to deciding the destination of the trophy in May - but will it keep alive the prospect of a play-off?

• Man City smell blood - why Arsenal should fear title rivals

How do the top two currently stand?

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Arsenal had the opportunity to pile huge pressure on City by beating the Cherries to go 12 points clear with only six games remaining.

Instead, they find themselves looking over their shoulder at the relentless challenge of Pep Guardiola's men, who have lost only one of their past 19 league games.

If Arsenal avoid defeat on Sunday they are certain to keep hold of top spot by the time they next play in the league, against Newcastle on Sunday, 25 April.

However, defeat at City would mean the Blues could have overtaken them by then, as they travel to relegation-threatened Burnley on Wednesday.

City also have a game in hand, against Crystal Palace, with a date for that re-arranged fixture yet to be confirmed by the Premier League.

Who has the easier run-in?

The run-in to the end of the season is - on paper - in Arsenal's favour, but anything can happen at this point of the campaign.

After Sunday, the Gunners' five remaining games are against teams in the bottom half of the table.

City, meanwhile, have to face Europe-chasing Everton and Brentford, before rounding off the campaign at home to Champions League contenders Aston Villa.

Before last weekend's games, Arsenal had a 97.17% chance of winning the title, according to statisticians Opta.

But after their defeat and City's victory, that has dropped to 86.98%.

City have jumped from a 2.83% chance of lifting the trophy to 13.02% - will momentum continue to swing their way on Sunday?

How is the title decided?

Top spot - and other positions in the Premier League - will be decided in order of the following:

• Points
• Goal difference
• Goals scored
• Points won in head-to-head games
• Away goals scored in head-to-head games

How could it go to a play-off?

If Arsenal and City are equal on all of the above, then the title will be decided by the winner of a play-off match.

However, it can only go to this decider should Sunday's match end 1-1, the same result as at Emirates Stadium in September.

It would leave the two sides with the same head-to-head record, as well as away goals scored in the matches against each other.

The tie-breakers as they currently stand are extremely tight too - Arsenal are three goals better off on goal difference than City, while the Blues have scored 63 goals to their opponents' 62.

A play-off match would take place at a neutral ground, with the format and timing to be determined by the Premier League board.

During the 1995-96 season, Ferguson's Manchester United and Kevin Keegan's Newcastle had been going toe-to-toe for the title and the first batch of tickets had actually been printed in case a play-off match was required.

One ticket showed the match would have taken place at Wembley Stadium during a midweek, with a kick-off time of 19:30 BST, but United went on to win the title by four points.

£20 for a Premier League play-off ticket? Those were the days... [Premier League on X]

Which title races have been the closest?

History suggests that if the title race is close, it will be City who possess the knowhow to get over the line.

There has been only one occasion in which the title was decided on goal difference, when Roberto Mancini's side scored twice in injury time to beat QPR in dramatic fashion and leave local rivals Manchester United heartbroken.

In all, there have been six title races that have been won by a solitary point, with City accounting for two of those, sneaking past Liverpool in both the 2018-19 and 2021-22 seasons.