Playoff Preview: 3 Keys to Cavs beating Raptors

2. Trust the Math

There isn’t much in the world that everyone can agree on. We can, however, agree that three is greater than two, right? If my math is correct, then the Cavs once again have an advantage. The Raptors finished 25th in three-point frequency and 18th in accuracy this season. They are… not a great perimeter team. Aside from scoring in transition, the Raps primarily made up for their lack of shooting by attacking the paint (9th in rim frequency) and mid-range (6th in mid-range frequency). This is exactly the type of style that Cleveland’s defense prefers to go against. The Cavs have always worked to run opponents off the line and force them to score from the middle of the floor. Difficult, inefficient two-pointers are preferable to three-point jumpers. This has been the basis of Cleveland being an elite defense in years past. It will be their blueprint for round one, too. Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes will try their best to beat Cleveland from the mid-range. They’ll likely even have a game or two where they are red-hot from that zone. But this is a gamble the Cavs are willing to accept. The math says that Toronto will have a hard time winning four out of seven games by scoring in the mid-range. The Cavs will trust that even the most prolific scoring performance from the mid-range will be something they can overcome with their own three-point shooting. Let’s talk more about that in our next section.

3. Score, Score, Score

I can’t blame anyone who might feel hesitant to trust Cleveland’s defense. After all, we spent most of the regular season watching them either be banged up or struggling to play with consistent effort. I’ll grant you that concern. But this team should pack a strong enough punch offensively to make everything else in this series moot. Lineups featuring James Harden had an offensive rating of 120.9 (87th percentile). Add Donovan Mitchell next to him, and those lineups had a scorching 125.7 offensive rating (98th percentile). You’re banking on that being enough to overcome anything in this first round, even a top-10 defense. For reference, the Cavs ranked sixth in offensive rating against top-10 opponents after the All-Star break. The Raps ranked 21st. The problem-solving capabilities of Harden and Mitchell make this possible. They can punish you in isolation, through their pick-and-roll dynamism with Allen and Mobley, or by spraying the ball to any of Cleveland’s various three-point specialists. They have a solution to anything a defense can throw at them. And while we know that the guards can fill it up, the potential for either Mobley or Allen to control the paint is just as dangerous. These two hit their stride in the back half of the season and will put a heavy strain on Toronto’s frontcourt to keep them from racking up dunks. Finally, X-Factors like Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson, Keon Ellis, and Max Strus can swing the entire series with their three-point shooting. Either one of them can heat up in a hurry and deliver a game-ending run. All in all, the Cavalier offense has all of the tools needed to be an extinction-level threat to the Raptors. This is their greatest advantage in round one.