Raptors vs. Cavaliers: Is Cleveland in danger of an early exit? Series keys, schedule and prediction

In their place is another expensive rotation, one that boasts Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl, a starting lineup that’s owed a combined $156.5 million this year. They won 30 games together in all of last season.

Granted, that group did not feature a healthy Ingram in 2024-25. Slot him alongside Barnes, and you have quite a bit of length on the perimeter. Ingram made the All-Star team as a replacement. Barnes, also an All-Star, should make both All-NBA and All-Defensive ballots.

The team is full of good players, Quickley, Barrett and Poeltl among them. Its bench of Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Ja’Kobe Walter is one of the league’s more underrated groups. They have even more talent behind them. It was never about their respective abilities; it was about the collective.

And Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković found a way this season to get everyone rowing in the same direction. May as well, since they’re all under contract for next season, too. Everyone’s been paid. It’s winning time. So, they did, to a degree, posting a top-five defense, which was good enough to drag a middling offense to 48 wins.

They lack a superstar, the guy who can get them buckets in crunch time, and that could come back to bite them in the playoffs. Their defense has kept them in games all season, but the postseason is a different animal. Sure, Barnes, Ingram, Barrett and Quickley can all create, but can they go toe to toe late with Mitchell, or even Harden?

Head to head

The Raptors swept their regular-season series with the Cavaliers, 3-0.

All three meetings took place before the end of November, when Garland was still on the Cavaliers, only he wasn’t available for any of them, which is part of the reason why they traded him for Harden. Allen missed a pair of the games, too. Mitchell only played in two of them. It’s hard to gather relevant information from Cleveland’s side.

As for the Raptors, their starting lineup — Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl — was +8 in 12 minutes of two games (against an entirely different Cavaliers rotation).

You know who was awesome against Cleveland this year? Mamukelashvili (+28 in 57 minutes) and Shead (+39 in 70 minutes). The bench duo outworked their opponents, which is what they do. Of course, the Cavs have reserves now they didn’t at the time.

Matchup to watch

Scottie Barnes vs. Evan Mobley

Barnes, one of the NBA’s most versatile defenders, spent more time on few other players this season than Mobley. He defended Mobley for parts of 113 possessions, and the Cavaliers scored just 98 points in them. This is a Cleveland team that scored 118.3 points per 100 possessions, as the sixth-most efficient offense in the league.

The same can be said of Mobley, another one of the NBA’s most versatile defenders. He spent the bulk of his time against the Raptors on Barnes, helping to hold Toronto to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. It’s an old-fashioned head-to-head defensive battle between two of the better players to operate on that end.

How much can Barnes help off of Mobley? Can Mobley, who shot just 30.5% on wide-open 3s this year, keep Barnes, with Poeltl, from clogging the paint, where Mitchell and Harden will want to operate, alongside Allen, away from Toronto’s top defender?

Likewise, how much will Mobley make Barnes work on the offensive end? Barnes shot just 24% on pull-up 3-point attempts for the season. The last thing the Raptors want is Mobley roaming free, with Allen, as Quickley, Barrett and Ingram try to create.

Neither of their offensive games is all that reliable. If Barnes and Mobley end up neutralizing each other, you have to like Cleveland’s chances with the ball in the hands of both Mitchell and Harden. The Cavs’ two-guard lineups, featuring some combination of Mitchell, Garland and Ty Jerome last season, torched the Raptors. They can now weaponize a similar triumvirate of Mitchell, Harden and Schröder.

Both teams have plenty of offensive weapons. Each has a defensive monster to counteract those arsenals, and the series may come down to which of them can make a broader impact — even beyond the man-to-man defense of one another.

Key question

Which version of Harden will take the floor for the Cavaliers?

We should all be familiar with Harden’s playoff foibles. A 3-for-11 effort on the biggest of stages is not unusual for him. Which is pretty shocking for one of the great regular-season offensive engines in the sport’s history. His solo act never quite translated to the postseason, when defenses can really hone in on how to stop a one-man show.

Worse was when Harden, as a perennial MVP candidate, completely shied from the moment, leaving his teammates to sort out an offense that was entirely built for him.

But in Cleveland Harden does not need to be the superstar he was. In fact, the Cavs would prefer he weren’t. High usage falls on Mitchell, one of the great individual performers in playoff history. Only a handful of players, including Michael Jordan and LeBron James, have averaged more than Mitchell’s 28.3 playoff points per game.

Harden mainly has to work from the weak side of the ball, making open chances (he has shot 40% on catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities this season) and attacking close-outs. When Mitchell is off the floor, Harden can work his two-man game with Allen, a devastating combo, so one elite creator can remain on the court at all times.

What happens if Harden craters again? He is already a defensive liability, and if he becomes one on offense, too, he is a hole in an otherwise contender. (Again.) Surely, the Cavs can survive against Toronto without an additive version of Harden, but it would haunt them in later rounds, and they do not want to see any evidence of it now.

Prediction: Cavaliers in six

I expect close games. In the clutch, Toronto’s offense has managed just 106.9 points per 100 possessions — a bottom-10 figure. Meanwhile, since Harden first took the floor for Cleveland, the Cavaliers are netting 131 points per 100 clutch possessions. Dare we say trust in Mitchell and Harden (or at least more than Barnes and Ingram)?

Series betting odds

(Via BetMGM)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-700)

Toronto Raptors (+500)

Series schedule

Game 1: Sat., April 18 at Cleveland (1 p.m., Prime)

Game 2: Mon., April 20 at Cleveland (7 p.m., Peacock)

Game 3: Thu., April 23 at Toronto (8 p.m., Prime)

Game 4: Sun., April 26 at Toronto (1 p.m., ESPN)

*Game 5: Wed., April 29 at Cleveland (TBD)

*Game 6: Fri., May 1 at Toronto (TBD)

*Game 7: Sun., May 3 at Cleveland (TBD)

*if necessary