Regicide: Mariners vs. Royals Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cole Ragans | 27 | 28.7% | 15.7% | 21.2% | 36.5% | 5.00 | 6.04 | | Bryan Woo | 35 | 19.1% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 31.1% | 3.86 | 3.75 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 50.0% | 60.9% | 94.7 | 104 | 140 | 67 | 0.354 | | Cutter | 3.7% | 6.8% | 89.5 | | | | | | Changeup | 26.9% | 2.5% | 84.2 | 113 | 128 | 126 | 0.281 | | Curveball | 11.4% | 3.7% | 79.0 | 100 | | | | | Slider | 8.0% | 26.1% | 84.8 | 113 | | | | Cole Ragans had a really weird season last year. His peripherals were better than they’ve ever been in his career — his strikeout rate was all the way up at 38.1% — but his ability to actually prevent runs was pretty terrible; his ERA was more than two runs higher than his FIP, xERA, and xFIP. Then, in June, he was sidelined with a shoulder injury, though he was able to make it back onto the mound by late September. The start to this season has been a big mixed bag for Ragans. He’s had three solid starts interspersed with three absolute clunkers, and those blowouts are really weighing heavily on his season statline. Ragans’s best pitch is his four-seam fastball and he has a trio of excellent secondary pitches — a changeup and a pair of devastating breaking balls — to help him earn tons of swings and misses. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Seth Lugo | 37.2 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 37.1% | 2.63 | 2.69 | | Emerson Hancock | 34.2 | 24.2% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 46.7% | 2.86 | 4.59 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 15.2% | 19.6% | 91.7 | 92 | 80 | 98 | 0.398 | | Sinker | 25.8% | 19.0% | 91.5 | 82 | 119 | 121 | 0.339 | | Cutter | 14.1% | 14.9% | 90.1 | 85 | | | | | Changeup | 2.0% | 11.0% | 85.6 | 75 | | | | | Curveball | 16.2% | 18.8% | 75.6 | 100 | 60 | 126 | 0.170 | | Slider | 15.7% | 9.2% | 84.3 | 86 | | | | | Sweeper | 11.1% | 7.4% | 78.2 | 86 | | | | | Slurve | 7.1% | 1.8% | 77.9 | 86 | | | | Seth Lugo throws the kitchen sink — and the bathtub too, for good measure. I have eight pitches listed in the table above, but I combined what Statcast calls his curveball and a “slow curve” into one line. And really, his sweeper-slurve is actually one pitch that he varies the speed and shape of based on the situation. That deep repertoire has served him well since making the transition to the starting rotation in 2023. He struggled with his normally excellent command last year, leading to a bunch of additional walks and home runs, but has seemed to have gotten over those issues to start this year. Despite mediocre raw stuff and advancing age, he’s been able to keep batters off balance because they often have no idea what pitch is coming next. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Kris Bubic | 33.2 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 39.3% | 3.74 | 3.80 | | Luis Castillo | 28.1 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 37.2% | 6.35 | 4.49 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 53.9% | 34.3% | 91.6 | 96 | 140 | 61 | 0.408 | | Sinker | 7.8% | 34.3% | 91.1 | 87 | | | | | Changeup | 32.8% | 1.0% | 85.9 | 91 | 115 | 124 | 0.197 | | Slider | 5.6% | 30.3% | 85.2 | 89 | | | | | Sweeper | 16.7% | 18.2% | 82.3 | 89 | | | | Kris Bubic changed the trajectory of his career back in 2023 by adding a much needed third secondary pitch to his repertoire, a slider in this case. He only lasted three starts that season before succumbing to an elbow injury that wiped out most of that year and the next. After a brief stint as a high-leverage reliever in ‘24, he returned to the starting rotation last year with a brand-new arsenal; gone was his curveball and in its place was a fantastic sweeper alongside the slider that fueled his breakout. His changeup looked a lot different too, and that offspeed pitch has been critical in his efforts to keep right-handed batters at bay. A shoulder injury cut his season short last year but he’s been healthy to start this year.

The Big Picture: