Returning Production Effects in Practice

This might not be the best argument for “returning production matters for wins!” because the top two teams, both essentially at 80% returning production, regressed by 3 wins from 2024 to 2025. Clemson’s regression came in a decreased record in one-loss games, similar to Arizona State’s issue of being undefeated in one-loss games in the 2024 regular season and then losing three such games in 2025. And that’s with super high RP numbers!

But! Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma all made massive leaps and either were in – or super close – to the Playoff. And Kennesaw State went from two wins to ten wins and a conference championship! That’s pretty great!

But if that chart’s not a convincing argument that RP numbers matter in deciding which teams will log lots of wins, let’s drill down to just the SEC for a moment. Below I pulled the same stuff: overall RP, 2024 wins, 2025 wins, and the difference between the two:

You’re familiar with Vandy, A&M, and Oklahoma. Auburn was a crap team in 2024, returned a bunch of guys, and remained the same crap team which…I guess not regressing is a win?

But look at the teams ranked 9th-16th in returning production. As a unit this group lost an average of 1.5 games more than they did the previous year, capped by South Carolina’s precipitous drop from 9 wins to 4, and Arkansas’ 7 wins to 2. Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas – all under 60% returning production – regressed by multiple games as well.

I think this is a better chart as it shows a more consistent image of what top teams in RP can do in a single year, especially compared to teams that are lower in RP.

HOWEVER. This year is a unique one, and a potentially milestone to track. Why? Because the average returning production number for teams has slid far down…like, the lowest numbers since pre-COVID.

In 2021 – when the COVID bonus year inflated every teams’ RP numbers – the average RP was 76.7%. For 2026: 53.7%.

You can clearly see that in the SEC’s 2026 breakdown:

South Carolina’s 68% returning production would have ranked 4th in the SEC last year. Now? It ranks 1st. Nationally, Notre Dame’s 72% returning production would have ranked 14th in 2024 but, in 2026, it’s the best in the country.

Transfer stats are cut in half when applied to their new teams, so losing a 1,000-yard rusher and replacing him with a portalled 1,000-yard rusher means you still lost 500 yards of rushing production. And given the prevalent proliferation of portalled players, that sort of loss might just be the norm going forward.

So, yes, typically you’d look at the highest ranked teams in RP and think “oh man, they’ll probably improve by 3 wins this year”. But that was when the highest ranked teams in RP would be in the 70s or 80s percentages! Will that be true when they can’t even break 70%?

Like they were heading into the 2024 season, Missouri is low again in returning production, there’s no denying that. And it’s a big part of the reason why I’m concerned this could be another bridge year of 7-8-9 wins with no shot at the SEC championship or Playoff.

But if everyone else is low as well, does that change the zero-sum win game? If the delta between 1st and 20th is closer and everyone is getting harder resets than before, then does RP not influence win totals as much?

For now it’s an unknown but what we do know is that Missouri ranks 76th in the country in returning production and 12th in the SEC. The 49% RP would suggest 1.5 more losses than last year, meaning Missouri would be projected to be in the 6-7 win range.

Or, maybe, Missouri pulls a reverse Clemson and instead of dropping wins with a lot of experience guys, it increases its win total without a lot of returning production!

Based on these numbers Eli Drinkwitz and this 2026 team have their work cut out for them, but that’s nothing new when you play in the SEC.

Next week we’ll look in detail at Missouri’s returning production on offense.