‘Rousey vs. Carano’ card best betting props, parlays and picks | Netflix MMA

Should be fun!

And there’s bets you can make on this event, too. Check out odds and my best bets for the evening, below:

Rousey vs. Carano Main Card Money Line Odds

Ronda Rousey (-535) vs. Gina Carano (+400)

Carano is 44.

She’s been out of MMA for 15 years and I bet it’s been a long time since she stepped into a gym and threw at some pads. There is no reason to believe she has any chance of winning a fair and honest fight against Rousey, who is five years younger and not as far removed from the sport.

I’m not even sure if Carano is going to make it to fight night.

Despite the odds being quite reserved here, I think this fight is going to happen exactly how Rousey wants it to. What we’re left wondering, though, is how does she want it to go?

Rousey has both the biggest and most fragile ego we’ve perhaps seen in MMA. She’s shown us, time and time again, that she is obsessed with maintaining an aura of specialness around her. For this fight, we have to wonder what would be more special to Rousey.

Would she like to finish this as quick as possible and show the world she is leagues above the only ever woman we can compare to her for prime popularity and mainstream crossover success?

Or would she like to create a spectacle and soak up the spotlight for longer than a minute, before then getting her win?

I think she’s capable of doing either. But it’s very hard to known what Rousey thinks would look best for her.

If she takes Carano down early, then it’s a wrap. There’s no way Carano will be able to stop the arm bar.

If Rousey decides she wants to show the world she can box, she might try and extend this fight. If she does that, will Carano be able to answer back on the feet? Probably not, she’s 44! But there’s a chance Rousey might get hit once or twice. Even though Rousey has been stopped before, and has apparently horrible concussions, I still don’t think Carano has the strength or technique left to land anything hard.

With these two scenarios in mind, the market we have to focus on is the round total.

Right now the total is 1.5 rounds. The over is +150 and the under is -195. So Vegas thinks a quick win is on the cards.

I’m leaning that way, too. I think there’s a great chance that Rousey wants to go in there and dunk on Carano as hard as she possibly can and then finish her career in the dominating fashion that she most wants to be remembered for. I do think there’s a chance she messes around on the feet a little, but I just don’t see Rousey having the confidence to let this go too far until she takes the fight into her safezone, where she’s guaranteed a win.

So I think this fight lasts either 10 seconds or four minutes, but nothing longer than that.

It seems pretty obvious that Rousey will choose to win this by submission. There’s -250 odds on that. Rousey by KO/TKO is +450. That’s interesting, since we don’t know how Carano is going to react to getting hit and we might see Rousey land a big ugly shot like she did on Bethe Correia.

Rousey by decision is +1200. The odds on Carano are +550 for TKO/KO, +2000 for submission and +2500 for decision. How are the odds shorter for submission than decision?

I think we’re looking at a Rousey submission here, but I’d rather go the safer route for my best bet. For a little extra value, I’ll go with round one as the winning round.

Best bet: Fight ends in Round 1 (-130)

Nate Diaz (+180) vs. Mike Perry (-218)

Perry has been one of the more busy and successful fighters on the post-UFC combat sports smorgasbord tour. He’s 7-1 since he left the Octagon and he’s fought some big names. In bare knuckle action he’s beaten Michael Page, Luke Rockhold, Eddie Alvarez, Thiago Alves and Jeremy Stephens. There’s two active UFC fighters on that list. Perry’s only loss was his boxing match with Jake Paul, where he came in late and gave up a ton of size.

Diaz has fought twice since leaving UFC. He lost a boxing match to Paul in 2023 and then beat Jorge Masvidal in 2024, also in boxing.

Diaz really looked like he didn’t try much in the Paul fight, both in the promotion or in the actual contest. He seemed almost embarrassed to be there. He performed much better against Masvidal and looked a lot like his old self, peppering away with shots and withstanding the hardest stuff Gamebred could throw at him.

Diaz is the slight underdog for this fight and I think that’s mostly because of where he is in his career/life right now. He’s 41. Perry, despite feeling like he’s been around for ages, is only 34. If this fight were happening ten years ago, you’d expect Diaz to totally overwhelm Perry with his size, reach and volume striking.

Right now, though, I just don’t think Diaz will be able to show that same amount of fire. I feel pretty confident that Perry has enough in the tank to fight at a relatively high pace, though.

Perry has been stopping guys lately without gloves on, but I don’t think he can crack that famous Diaz chin. It feels to me we are heading to a decision on this one and Vegas agrees with me. The round total is 4.5 and it’s -115 for either the over or the under.

For my best bet, I’m just going to go with Perry. I think he’s going to be the one moving forwards and doing the most.

Best bet: Mike Perry moneyline (-218)

Francis Ngannou (-1450) vs. Philipe Lins (+850)

The last time we saw Ngannou was in October, 2024. That’s when he smashed Renan Ferreira (see it here) to reclaim the PFL Heavyweight title. That was his first MMA fight since he beat Ciryl Gane at UFC 270 in 2022. In between those fights he lost to Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. He lost the Joshua fight by crushing KO (see it here).

A lot has happened around Ngannou during this time. He was involved in a fatal car accident. He suffered the tragic loss of his infant son. And he had a very unsatisfying career with PFL. That was initially sold as a unique partnership that would see Ngannou revolutionize fighter-promoter dynamics as well as jumpstart serious MMA development in Africa. Ngannou and PFL ended with a bad breakup, with very little accomplishments to show for it. All that, stacked on top of each other, along with the humbling experience of being KO’d for the first time in his life, has to weight on you.

Ngannou also turns 40 in September.

Lins turns 41 in August. He was released by UFC despite being on a four fight winning streak which included a TKO over Ovince St. Preux (see it here). The Brazilian’s last fight was in 2024, a unanimous decision over Ion Cutelaba.

I don’t think this is a lay-up for Ngannou. I think he probably still wins, but I don’t think its going to be one of those where he goes in there and knocks his opponent’s head off without getting touched.

Ngannou is certainly the better striker here. And he’ll have five inches of reach on Lins, too. Lins is likely not going to push his luck on the feet. I expect him to go for takedowns here. In his UFC days, Ngannou had a 71 percent takedown defense.

Ngannou is probably still good enough to stuff most takedowns and hurt Lins on the feet. But I think the stuff that’s gone on outside the cage is really significant. So everything I think Ngannou should probably do feels a little less likely to me. I still think he will win, but that doubt is going to have me pick the over in this fight. This way, I win if Ngannou is slow to start or if this one is a lot tougher than it needs to be.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+165)

Salahdine Parnasse (-1100) vs. Kenny Cross (+700)

Parnasse has been the best fighter outside UFC for years now. He was a dominant double champ in KSW and he’s still only 28 years old. There are plenty of fights he could win in UFC and he’s a real coup for MVP MMA.

He’s been given a warm body here. Cross is a 17-4 pro, but he’s never fought on a show bigger than Bellator. And he lost his lone Bellator appearance, by submission. He won on Contender Series, a decision over Kevin Snyder, but wasn’t signed to UFC after that (that tells you all you need to know about the performance).

Parnasse should run through Cross and end this quickly.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)

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Junior dos Santos (+300) vs. Robelis Despaigne (-380)

MVP MMA has booked this fight hoping to start our main card off with a bang.

The 42 year-old Dos Santos most recently fought in 2024. That’s when he stopped Alan Belcher in Gamebred Bareknuckle MMA to earn that promotion’s Heavyweight title. He debuted with Gamebred the year before, taking a decision over Fabricio Werdum. Prior to that he lost to Yorgan De Castro, due to a shoulder injury, at Eagle FC.

All those fights came after he was released by UFC in 2020. That release mercifully came after a four fight losing streak that saw stoppage losses to Ciryl Gane, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou.

Despaigne was a cause célèbre when he was first signed to UFC in 2024. The massive taekwondo fighter came to the promotion after four second and three second wins in Fury FC. He won his Octagon debut after just 18 seconds (see it here). After that he was beaten by Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Austen Lane, who took him down and tired him out. He was bounced from UFC and then landed in Karate Combat, a promotion he seems made for.

In Karate Combat he went 7-0 and, in December, almost killed Sam Alvey to win the Heavyweight title (see it here).

JDS is not taking Despaigne down here, so I think we’re going to see another big finish for the Cuban fighter. The round total is 1.5 and the under -238. Despaigne to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 is just -125. A first minute finish in this fight is only +500. It’s usually +2000.

It’s really hard to find any value in this fight if, like me, you think Cigano is going to get brutalized. For my best bet, I’m going to go all in on this this ending early and take one of the alternate round totals available.

Best bet: Under 0.5 rounds (+215)

Rousey vs. Carano ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Namo Fazil (-345) vs. Jake Babian (+275)

There’s not a lot of info or tape around on these guys. Fazil is a the heavy favorite and I’m not going to argue with it. He’s been around among much higher competition than Babian has. He’s won in ONE, UAE Warriors and Karate Combat. Babian has never fought outside of California.

Best bet: Namo Fazil moneyline (-345)

Adriano Moraes vs. Phumi Nkuta

Moraes was supposed to be fighting Muhammad Mokaev at this event. That would have been pretty compelling. Instead, he gets Nkuta, who is 11-0 and has appearences on Bellator and LFA.

Moraes is a former Flyweight and Bantamweight champion in ONE Championship. There are no odds out for this yet, but I expect him to be a big favorite. Things haven’t gone well for him lately, though. He’s 1-3 in his last four and is coming off a first round TKO loss to Yuya Wakamatsu. The other two losses were both to Demetrius Johnson.

I watched some of Nkuta’s recent fights and he might be worth a look as an underdog, especially if you can get him plus some points on the spread.

Jason Jackson vs. Jeff Creighton

Jackson was supposed to fight Lorenz Larkin here. Larkin’s injury means Creighton steps in. Since this was announced so recently, like the fight above, there are no odds for it right now.

Jackson was a star in Bellator and PFL. He won the Bellator Welterweight belt with a TKO over Yaroslav Amosov. That looks pretty good now, eh? In PFL he made it to the 2025 final but lost a decision to Thad Jean (plenty scored it for him, though).

Creighton is a local fighter who has had a couple of wins on LFA. He was also a cast member on last years’ The Ultimate Fighter season.

At 35, Jackson is five years older than Creighton, but he’s also got some decent size on him. Jackson will be a big favorite here and I don’t think there’s much reason to deny that.

David Mgoyan (-535) vs. Albert Morales (+400)

Mgoyan looked pretty good on Contender Series against Sean O’Malley’s boy Tommy McMillen until he started to wear down. Early on Mgoyan was lighting McMillen up and out grappling him. That majority decision loss was the first and only defeat of Mgoyan’s career.

Morales went 1-4-1 in UFC between 2016 and 2018. He’s 34 now.

I think the 21 year-old Mgoyan will be too fast and too crafty for Morales. Mgoyan has won by a few decisions lately, so I’ll take the over here when it comes out. Right now I’ve only for the moneyline to go on, though.

Best bet: David Mgoyan moneyline (-535)

Aline Pereira (-425) vs. Jade Masson-Wong (+330)

This could be a sleeper for fight of the night.

Pereira is the younger sister of UFC Heavyweight title challenger Alex Pereira. She’s 2-2 in MMA having originally cut her teeth as a kickboxer. She’s had a few viral wins in Karate Combat. Her most recent fight was a decision win on LFA last November.

Masson-Wong is mostly known for bare knuckle boxing. In BKFC she fought some of the bigger names over there, including a split decision loss to Christine Ferea and a unanimous decision win over Taylor Starling.

Pereira is going to tower over Masson-Wong. She’s four inches taller and has a seven inch reach advantage. Masson-Wong is going to want to brawl, but she might struggle to get inside. I think these ladies are really going to put on a show, though, and there could be a finish (especially considering Masson-Wong isn’t that used to seeing kicks).

I would look for under props and ‘ends by TKO/KO/DQ’ when they are available. Right now, though, I gotta do the moneyline again.

Best bet: Aline Pereira moneyline (-425)

Chris Avila (+250) vs. Brandon Jenkins -310)

Avila gets tagged onto the card, probably because that’s somewhere in Nate Diaz’s contract. Avila lost to Ariel Perez in boxing at an MVP event in August 2025. Before that he lost, also in boxing, to Benson Henderson on a Misfits card. He has boxing wins over Anthony Pettis and Jeremy Stephens. His last MMA fight was in 2021.

Jenkins went 0-2 in UFC in 2022, getting finished by Rongzhu and Drakkar Klose. He’s been on the Karate Combat circuit a lot since then. His last MMA fight was in 2025. That ended in a kimura.

I’ll take Avila here, since Jenkins doesn’t feel like he should be a -300 favorite against anyone.

Best bet: Chris Avila moneyline (+250)

Rousey vs. Carano Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Ronda Rousey to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+650)

I think there’s a chance Rousey wings a punch at Gina Carano and catches her square in the nose. The old Carano was tough and famously went through a meat grinder against Cyborg Santos. However, at this stage of her life, and once the pay day has been secured, I don’t think Carano is going to want to endure this kind of thing any longer than she has to. I can see her getting hit and turtling up for a quick TKO loss.

Philipe Lines moneyline (+850)

A lot has happened behind the scenes and that could really affect Francis Ngannou heading into this one. Lins is not a scrub and, if Ngannou is not his old terrfying self, we might see a boring Heavyweight MMA fight on Saturday, much to the delight of Lins.

Two fight parlay: Mike Perry and Chris Avila (+410)

There could be mixed results for Stockton on Saturday. I think Perry is going to be more energetic and active in his fight with Nate Diaz and that this should be enough to convince the judges he’s the winner (even in a very close fight). There are a lot of smush matches on this card, so it was hard to find much to add value to this parlay. However, of all the one-sided bouts on this card, I think Avila stands the best shot at getting an upset.

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