Scientific grading method: Positional value doesn't capture Downs' worth to Cowboys

By all accounts, the Dallas Cowboys knocked it out of the park with their first pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Assessment after assessment issued various forms an “A” grade to Dallas, all for selecting Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at pick No. 11.

It was a dream scenario come true for the Cowboys, who targeted Downs from the start. Listed as the top football prospect on more than a few big boards this year, Downs is a perfect prospect for scouts. And since most draft grades are based primarily, or even exclusively, on scouting reports, an “A” grade is understandable. But what about a deeper look at the decision-making process?

Drafting is all about decision making, after all, it’s what separates scouts from team builders. Team builders have to weigh the overview of the team’s present and future. Scouts are tasked with finding good players who fit the scheme. It's why every year at the conclusion of the draft, we do a breakdown of the decision-making process and objectively grade multiple layers of the process.

Using the Scientific Grading Method, we can include where a prospect fell on the consensus board relative to where he was drafted, positional and surplus value, the Cowboys’ specific need at the prospect’s position, number of alternative options available (in the draft, free agency or otherwise), the risk and the potential reward.

As one might expect, Downs scores off-the-charts in draft board value. With a consensus grade at No. 3 overall, getting him at 11 is a certified steal. The reason for the drop, and a reason that factors into the next grade, is positional and surplus value. Safety is not considered a premium position in the NFL, and the way it’s paid supports that statement. Only three position groups rate lower on franchise tag values in 2026, meaning Downs will enter the NFL already getting paid like a veteran. Where quarterbacks and receivers can offer tens of millions in savings by playing on rookie deals, Downs offers very little savings as a safety.

But even that isn’t cut and dry because versatile safeties are growing in value across the league. Because they allow defenses to match up against a variety of offensive personnel, they take away a strategic advantage offenses have had for years. Downs, specifically, figures to be the Cowboys’ starting nickel cornerback on Day 1, meaning he’s offering more in both positional and surplus value than your typical safety.