Series Preview #12: Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Pirates are no idiots.

Jack Sparrow looked like an idiot and certainly behaved like one, but wasn’t a idiot, though the rum might disagree with that statement. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a bit like the Pirates of the Caribbean. After watching the second installment of the series, you have seen them all: the entire Pirates of the Caribbean franchise becomes a drag. That’s how a Pittsburgh Pirates’ fan must feel: since 2017 the Pirates of the NL Central end 4 or 5 in each season, no matter how their season (movie went). Maybe this year is their best movie of the entire franchise since 2017, but the result is still the same: they are last in their division. The crew, though, looks better than in previous seasons, because the directors actually tried to make work this off-season of putting some decent acting on the set.

• Padre Ryan O’Hearn signed a two-year $29MM contract as free agent.
• Slugger Marcell Ozuna joined the team on a one year $12MM contract.
• Reliever Gregory Soto signed for $7.75MM and one season.
• Brandon Lowe was acquired in a 3-team trade from the Tampa Bay Rays, with one year left on his contract. Though Marcell Ozuna still has not found his groove yet in Steel City, the influx of hitting talent into that batting lineup has done the Pirates well. Last year the Pittsburgh offence was 28th in the league, according to their fWAR, with their 117 homeruns being the lowest total in the entire league, 31 less than division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Now? That same fWAR and WRC+ puts them in the top 10 of the MLB. Except for the catching (Henry Davis / Joey Bart) and designated hitter (Marcell Ozuna), the entire Pittsburgh lineup has a 100+ OPS+, with Brandon Lowe (141 OPS+), Bryan Reynolds (136 OPS+), Ryan O’Hearn (141 OPS+) and Oneil Cruz (126 OPS+) posing the biggest threads. Nick Gonzales and Konnor Griffin have been on a hot streak the past two weeks. The Pittsburgh hitters are coming off an especially successful weekend bashing of the Reds: 27 runs in 3 games. That halted a 5-game losing streak, despite scoring 18 runs over those. Pitching wise, their 5 saves are almost league lowest, leaving only the Angels and the Mets behind them. A team that scores many, does not need to save many. That is true, but closer Dennis Santana is not the trustworthy sailor he was last year, with way more walks and less strikeouts, when compared to 2025. The two blown saves are the proof of that, though the latest one, giving up 4 runs against Cardinals on April 27, was just the second time he gave up a run or more this season. Their starting pitching is top of the league: xERA, xFIP, FIP and fWAR all puts the Pirates in the top 5 of the MLB. Obviously, ace Paul Skenes is a big reason for that, but the Pirates are also enjoying great starts from Brandon Ashcraft and Mitch Keller as well. Carmen Mlodzinski and Bubba Chandler round out a starting rotation with all ERAs below 5.00. Last year the Diamondbacks lost their season series against Pirates (4-2), the year before was the other way around. Arizona has an all-time 104-77 record against Pittsburgh.

Matchups.

**Game #1 Tue 05/05 6:40 PM MST, Eduardo Rodríguez (ARI) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT).**

• Eduardo Rodríguez. 6 GS, 32.2 IP, 2 W-0 L, 3.03 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 22/16 K/BB.
• Bubba Chandler. 6 GS, 29.0 IP, 1 W-3 L, 4.97 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 1.48 WHIP, 27/20 K/BB. If there is one matchup that provides the Diamondbacks the biggest chance to win a game in this series, it is the one on the first night. It were 3 games of fun with E-Rod, until the WBC magic was over and E-Rod turned into E-Rotten again. Baltimore might have been a fluke, but the struggles continued against the White Sox and Brewers. With the Pirates, the Venezuelan certainly won’t face an easier lineup than those of recent weeks. Bubba Chandler is the weakest link in the Pirates’ rotation at the moment, strugging heavily with his command. He has huge troubles getting the batters out and has been walking them at a 6.2 BB/9 rate. It’s a tough blow for one of the biggest Pirates prospects after a good start of his career last year. Especially left-handed batting has been feasting on his pitching, which sounds like a great opportunity for the Diamondbacks to win this first game. Both starting pitchers have never faced their opponent for their (current) team.

**Game #2 Wed 05/06 6:40 PM MST, Michael Soroka (ARI) vs Paul Skenes (PIT).**

• Michael Soroka. 6 GS, 30.2 IP, 4 W-1 L, 4.70 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB.
• Paul Skenes. 7 GS, 34.0 IP, 4 W-2 L, 3.18 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 0.85 WHIP, 39/7 K/BB. If Soroka wants to bounce back after a horrible performance against Milwaukee, he will have to return to his former best of the beginning of the season if he wishes to beat Paul Skenes. Skenes was terrible in his opening day start, getting just two batters out against the Mets, giving up 5 runs. After that he looked pretty much like the ace he is until he encountered a bump in the road against St. Louis in his most recent pitching performance, where he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, though he struck out 9. Last season Skenes pitched twice against the Diamondbacks and, obviously, won both matchups. 20 snakes have been killed by this Pirate in 18 innings of work. Ouch!

**Game #3 Thu 05/07 12:40 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Mitch Keller (PIT).**

• Zac Gallen. 7 GS, 32.1 IP, 1 W-2 L, 4.45 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 20/10 K/BB.
• Mitch Keller. 7 GS, 41.0 IP, 3 W-1 L, 2.85 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 31/12 K/BB. After a tiny scare against the Padres, Zac Gallen returned to the mound against the Chicago Cubs and…well, he returned to the mound. Maybe he is able to regain a bit of his former himself against the Pirates. Gallen faced the Pirates twice last season and, like you might expect, he lost both games, giving up 10 runs over 11 innings. 2026 is Keller’s 8th season as a Pirate. He has a been a very reliable and durable pitcher for the Pirates since the 2022 season, a bit like Merrill Kelly, but with less spectacular results. However, this season he has been performing like an ace for the Pirates. BABIP says he will regress, most likely to the low 4.00 ERA pitching we are used of him, so why won’t we start with that regression to the mean this Thursday. Keller didn’t face the Diamondbacks last season and has 4 no-decisions in the 5 times he pitched against Arizona. The sole win was at Chase Field in 2022 and the other two times he took the ball in Arizona he completed 7 innings in both games, allowing 0 and 2 runs. We better be warned.