Should Thunder root for Spurs or Timberwolves to advance to West Finals?

Let's spell out every argument for the Spurs and Timberwolves as to why the Thunder should and shouldn't favor a matchup against them in the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs:

The case for the Spurs

Jan 13, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots over San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

To be the best, you've got to beat the best. And while the Thunder would be the favorite in this scenario, it'll be the toughest team they've squared off against in the NBA playoffs since their championship window opened three seasons ago. While OKC has dominated the rest of the league, San Antonio has been right behind it all year. That's why we were on standings watch for the final month of the season despite the Thunder being well on their way to 60-plus wins once again.

A Thunder and Spurs dog fight will determine this year's NBA champion. No offense to anybody in the East, but these two have been at the top all year. Only fitting that they'd meet in the Western Conference Finals. Both were in the top three in net rating and defensive rating. San Antonio was third in offensive rating, while OKC was in seventh. It would be a heavyweight bout in the likes we haven't seen since 2018, when the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets faced off in the West Finals.

This has felt inevitable all year. From their three December matchups to now. The Thunder and Spurs have been in their own tier all year. Anytime someone talked about contenders, they made sure to include that caveat. Because of that, OKC has had ample time to figure out how to beat San Antonio. And fresh off two series sweeps, their confidence is sky-high right now.

The Thunder have had a cupcake walk to the final four, but they've earned that road due to regular-season success. And it's one thing to be projected to sweep two straight opponents. Another to actually do it. If they want to be written down in NBA history as an all-time team, beating Wembanyama and the Spurs would be quite the addition to add to their stacked resume.

The case against the Spurs

Jan 13, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward/center Victor Wembanyama (1) drives to the basket past Oklahoma City Thunder center/forward Chet Holmgren (7) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

As the adage goes, you need as much luck as talent to win an NBA championship. Of all their possible opponents en route to a second Larry O'Brien trophy, the Spurs are presented as OKC's biggest road bump. But if it can avoid it thanks to a Round 2 upset, then by all means, can't really complain about it. No way around it, but San Antonio is downright frightening.

Despite the relative playoff inexperience, the Spurs have seen their dominance translate over to the NBA playoffs. Wembanyama has been awesome. He's averaged 20.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.2 blocks in the postseason. Just unreal stuff from the 22-year-old. In his third season, he's completely broken out as a top-three player in the league. He's about to finish among the three best in MVP voting. Trying to stop the seven-footer for a probable seven-game series is nightmare-fueled stuff.

Let's not forget about the regular season, either. The Thunder went a league-best 64-18 this year. Four of those losses were from the Spurs. They lost to San Antonio in the NBA Cup semifinals and were blown out on Festivus Day and Christmas. Lastly, you can throw away the fourth loss as OKC punted with its entire rotation out due to injury. But those first three losses show that perhaps the Spurs are best set up to stop OKC. It was the first time in years that the reigning NBA champions truly tasted their blood and had zero counterpunches to throw.

Wembanyama can wreck OKC's halfcourt offense, but guys like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are scary threats. Both have made the Thunder's trio of perimeter defenders look quicksand-slow. Their burst and athleticism helped them get downhill without much resistance. San Antonio also has a glut of role players who can knock down outside looks. Such as Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie. It's a scary roster dynamic they could face. They might just have the formula to make their league-best defense look pedestrian.

The case for the Timberwolves

Mar 15, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives around Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert (27) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

I mean, refer back to last year's Western Conference Finals. The Thunder gentlemen swept the Timberwolves. Without any real drama, either. As stated above, the playoffs are about matchups. And while Minnesota has put a scare into the rest of the West field, OKC has shrugged its shoulders at them. Don't see why that would change here, with mostly the same rosters being run back. And if anything, the Thunder have improved theirs.

Edwards has always struggled to go off against the Thunder. He doesn't have the same plate of favorable one-on-one matchups he usually has against the rest of the league. The 24-year-old freezes up in the pick-and-roll when it's one of Lu Dort, Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso on him. There's a reason why he was outplayed by Jalen Williams in last year's playoff matchup. Dealing with a knee injury, I don't see why things would be any different in a rematch here.

And if the Thunder can shut down Edwards, it'll create a downstream effect on the rest of the Timberwolves. Julius Randle has mostly been a pumpkin against OKC. He can't really bully their frontcourt. Gilgeous-Alexander has figured out the geometry to get by Rudy Gobert's rim protection. Minnesota's lack of a second superstar makes it easy to bog down its offense.

The Thunder have figured the Timberwolves out. At least this iteration of the team. Once Edwards gets slowed down, the supporting cast usually follows suit. I think if we get a rematch from last year's West Finals, it'll play out similarly. Credit Minnesota if it reaches an eye-popping third straight final four. Especially considering their lack of history. But it'd do so with little hope of getting over the hump.

The case against the Timberwolves

Mar 15, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace (22) steals the ball away from Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

You think you have a team figured out until you don't. The Thunder and Timberwolves split their four regular-season matchups. So there's at least a sense of hope they can pull off the unthinkable. Unlike the dread that clouded the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers before Game 1 even tipped off. But there'd definitely be a sense of another cakewalk series for OKC if it's Minnesota. And that complacent feeling could come back to bite the reigning NBA champions.

The Timberwolves' best route to beat the Thunder is to ugly up the games. Gilgeous-Alexander will get his numbers. Most likely. But Minnesota has to turn off the faucet for the rest of the case. It's a doable task. That's how it's won its regular-season matchups over OKC over the years. This might be an oversimplification, but if the Timberwolves' role players outshoot the Thunder's from the perimeter, that factor alone equalizes both teams.

Let's not overlook the confidence angle for the Timberwolves. If they get here, that means they knocked off the Denver Nuggets and Spurs in back-to-back playoff series. Both were viewed as top-three teams in the West. Specifically against the latter, Minnesota pulling off a David-esque upset over San Antonio would have the inconsistent team riding in with all-time confidence. In that scenario, beating the Thunder wouldn't feel as daunting.

A lot of things need to break their way, but the Thunder can't just assume things will be easy. No such thing as a gimme Conference Finals series. The Timberwolves aren't the main-event attraction the Spurs are, but they will deserve the same amount of respect. Edwards would enter with a chance of redemption. The NBA superstar will have an added chip on his shoulder. Intangibles could boost Minnesota's odds.

Final verdict

Jan 29, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) defends Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the first quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

I've said ad nauseam now, but it's important to emphasize just how difficult either road will be. The Thunder will enter the Western Conference Finals as the favorite, but they'll really need to earn their way to series wins from now on. Something you really couldn't say in the first two rounds as OKC made it look routine with the Suns and Lakers. Even with Williams sidelined for most of the first eight games.

But looking at the Spurs and Timberwolves, I think the much easier path is against the latter. Minnesota has shown it can get up to play with any of the heavyweights, but a frustrating regular season shows inconsistencies that make most folks hesitate to believe it can play at an A-plus level for an entire playoff series against the Thunder.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are the complete opposite. They've been there with the Thunder for the entire year. Even with a bunch of baby-faced players, they've turned into an NBA win machine. This would be a clash of the titans. Two 60-plus win juggernauts that each roster a top-three player in the world. You can bet the entire basketball world is rooting for this matchup to materialize.

But if you're the Thunder, you should go for the Timberwolves. Winning an NBA championship is hard. Why welcome a bumpier road to your destination? Minnesota might put up a better fight than last year, but OKC should take care of business against them. But if it's the Spurs, I truly think it'll be a coin-flip series. The competitor in you might want to take the tougher test, but I'd rather go the easy way with another low-stress postseason matchup.

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Should Thunder root for Spurs or Timberwolves to advance to West Finals?