Simulating 101 mock drafts to find the Denver Broncos 62nd pick

Potent Quoateables

Denver Broncos general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton met with the media on Thursday for their annual pre-draft press conference. Here’s what we learned:

**On developing a roster that is deep at multiple positions, such as in the secondary, and if they want to capitalize on those areas**

**George Paton:**“I think when you’re trying to build your roster, you just want the best players. We are deep in the secondary, but you always want to build on a strength if possible. I think you’re asking if [we think], ‘best player available.’ I think you’re getting there. We’re always going to take the best player available within reason. If there are a couple of defensive backs there and there are other players maybe that are a bigger need, we would go that way. You always want to build on a strength. I think we’ve done that since we’ve arrived, and it’s worked.”

**On if their expectations or goals differ for this year’s draft with only one pick in the Top 100**

**GP:**“The good news is we have experience with this. I think our first draft, we had five picks. Our expectations are the same. They’re high. We think there are good players in this draft. We think there are good players where we’re picking at 62. We have two picks up in the top of the fourth [round], and we feel good [about] what’s going to be there. We like it. We don’t mind it, and we know we still have flexibility with the seven picks to move up or move back and get more picks. We have experience with this. We’ve gotten good players with lesser picks, so we feel good.”

**Sean Payton:**“I don’t think the preparation changes relative to the picks. The preparation is trying to properly grade each player that’s in the draft. Certainly there are some obvious ones, but nonetheless, you’re trying to do that. Assigning value, and value relative to a first-round player in this draft or any draft. Second-round talent the same way. Then certainly later in the process, you obviously address where you’re selecting. I don’t know that it changes any relative to the preparation for the draft.”

**On how second-round players develop early in their careers**

**GP:**“I think it’s case-by-case. That’s kind of been… We typically like to draft high-trait players. Maybe they lack a little bit of polish, and it’s going to take some development. We’ve done a great job with the coaches in developing these types of players. We took [G] Quinn Meinerz. He started his first year, maybe wasn’t quite ready. Sure we’d like somebody to come in and start right away, but that’s not always realistic for first-, second- [round picks], no matter where they’re picked. It’s just hard. With the way our team is built now, it’s going to be hard to come in and start Day 1.”

**On how difficult it is to project who will be available late in the second round and if teams’ draft boards differ at that stage in the draft**

**SP:**“The obvious answer is as the draft continues, the trajectory of the spray gets wider. If you’re asking that question with the two picks in the fourth round, the range of the variables is much broader. If you’re picking 17th in the draft overall, you can probably have a good feel between these three players. I just think as the draft continues, the range of that goes out. I do think this, and [General Manager] George [Paton] just mentioned this. When we read these players, and a lot of it is the last line is vision. So some are real good football players, and the initial vision might be, ‘We see [him] as a situational player, special teams, feel like he’s a starter within Year 2 or 3.’ It can vary depending on what position that player plays, and they might have very similar grades. It’s the vision within this roster.”

**On how much confidence their success in drafting players in the second round gives them this year and if there is more pressure with one pick in the first two days**

**GP:**“I don’t think there’s any more pressure. We’re going to go through our process. Our process has worked, and it continues to evolve. I think it’s better. I feel more prepared for this draft than I was for last year’s and the prior draft. We’ve done well in that realm. It doesn’t mean anything. We still go through our process. We feel like we have six players we’re kind of focused on that could be there at [pick] 62. We feel good about those players. We’re going to keep working through them. We’ve been down in the dungeons since the Wednesday after the Owners Meeting, just watching tape, had our meetings, now going through all these different scenarios. We feel good about 62. We feel good about the fourth round as well. That’s harder to predict obviously. We like our process, we like how it’s worked, and we feel good with where we’re at.”

**On what premium they put on mid-round offensive linemen’s ability to play multiple positions across the line**

**SP:**“It’s a great question. I think versatility is a plus. It would be almost like the asset of other defensive players that can play on special teams. When a player has swing ability, you guys know we’re taking eight [active offensive linemen] to the game. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t be just a real good tackle prospect, and you love him. But when you get into the rounds you’re discussing, if he does have swing flex, it helps when you’re creating the vision, no different than if you’re taking a linebacker, defensive back or defensive player and there’s special teams value. That creates a vision as well. I think when it comes to developmental offensive linemen, certainly it’s a plus. It’s not a mandate, but it helps you especially on gameday.”

**On how projecting the quality of next year’s draft class plays into decisions on trading future picks**

**GP:**“You look at that obviously. I think everyone feels like next year is going to be a strong draft, and I think that’s based on the quarterbacks and feels like it’s going to be a strong quarterback draft. We definitely look at that when we’re making trades. It’s not going to dictate… We feel if we have to make a trade in this draft, we have 10 picks, we think, next year, including the compensatories. So it gives us more flexibility if we need to use one of those to help ourselves now.”

**On if they have any scenarios to trade into the first round**

**GP:**“You never say never, but it’s unlikely. It would cost quite a haul for us to get up there. Most of our draft we would have to trade and then something next year. I would say that it’s unlikely, but we could certainly move up in the second [round].”

**On if Head Coach Sean Payton has given a template for the ‘Failure Index’ regarding quarterbacks to the rest of the league**

**SP:**“Here is the thing, I don’t think so. We are always looking at past performances and always analyzing drafts. When it comes to the quarterback position, I think that most importantly is, ‘What is the vision?’ How do you want to use this player to benefit him the most? I think that can vary around the league. The one thing that won’t ever vary is the significance of the position relative to how our league views it. I think teams in general are in that business of making sure they either have someone they are very confident in or are looking to draft and develop. I think that can vary by team and their appetite and more importantly what they want to do. I don’t know that there has been any… I think each team has a format on how they arrive at a decision for a position. That position obviously gets discussed a lot.”

**On if Head Coach Sean Payton has softened after becoming a grandfather**

**SP:**“It’s a great experience. You appreciate the little things. It comes with experience and aging obviously, tying it to football. I just think it’s really more of a family thing. You are excited for your children, in this case my daughter and her husband. Maybe we all soften a little bit with age. We are glad everyone is home and healthy and appreciate the good wishes. They are doing well.”

**On if either Head Coach Sean Payton or General Manager George Paton have influenced the other more in how they do things during their time working with one another**

**SP:**“This is me, but I thought from the very beginning that I’ve enjoyed this process. It’s been clean and we both enjoy being down there and watching tape and kind of throwing darts. Just making sure that… It’s never really finished. If the draft were in three weeks, we’d still be watching more tape up until that process just to make sure we got it right. I’m speaking for myself, but it’s been… I don’t say it’s been easy, but it hasn’t been difficult at all. Easy part of it, meaning I think we both enjoy the process of working together.”

**GP:**“I haven’t been around a head coach who has been involved as much as [Head Coach] Sean [Payton] in the process. He loves the process and is very good at the process. We’ve really been down there the last two weeks just watching tape and meeting. I think it has blended. There are a lot of things that I’ve added to the process that we had previously when Sean showed up. It keeps evolving with different people that we bring on and things that we learn about. We’re down there in the bunker for about three weeks and then the draft is over and then we get our computers from down in the meeting room. It’s like the end of the season, we’re depressed.”

**SP:** “That day or two, we don’t know what to do with ourselves.”

**GP:**“We want to stay down there, but they won’t allow us. We’ve enjoyed it.”

**SP:**“And RIP (rest in peace) to this draft room. This is the last one. Then we will be across in the new facility next year.”

**On if they still view TE Evan Engram as a key piece to the roster**

**SP:**“We definitely view him as a key piece. I would say this about this class in my opinion, if you are looking for a blocking ‘Y’, there are a handful available that would be targeted. If you are looking for a move, maybe a little bit undersized ‘F’, they are out there. To each his own, the different type of tight ends are available. It’s always a challenge with that position because sometimes you are projecting maybe in an offense that is playing them differently. Relative to [TE] Evan [Engram], he’s someone that gave us a lot of big plays a year ago and we will continue to find ways to keep him and add to his workload.”

**On if LB Jonah Elliss playing more off-ball linebacker changes how they evaluate the linebacker position**

**SP:**“I think it can. There are probably a little bit more inside backers than what we are used to. There is certainly good video tape on a number of guys. That position has changed over the years where you are finding guys who are moving from safety to that position or from an edge position back. There are certainly some players that are playing that position well at the college level, but that is one option. I mentioned that because he has those traits and it starts with just being a good football player. We are always trying to get our best players on the field. Does that impact how we draft or is it vice versa? That would be the six-million-dollar question. I think it’s a little bit of both.”

**On what they learned from previous drafts where their first selection came late in the second round**

**GP:**“It’s very similar to what we have done. We are really homed in let’s say from 45 to 75. Just really homed in on that group of players. Not that we haven’t gone through the process in the first round like we always do, but now this just gives us time to really focus on the players there and go through every scenario possible. If you are left with five of these players or six of these player or none of these players left. Going through every possible scenario so on draft day you aren’t surprised. We haven’t been surprised yet, and we’ve been happy with the results.”

Under the radar

Brian Baldinger thinks fans should keep an eye on inside linebacker Josiah Trotter out of Missouri. Intersting!

From the FEED

We did a pre-draft podcast ourselves with Chris Hart. I may have added a few thoughts as a filthy casual.

101 mock draft simulations, oh my!

Running simulation after simulation over at PFN with NO TRADES, this is what the player landscape looked like for the Denver Broncos with that 62nd overall pick.

• Eli Stowers, TE (15)
• Mike Washington Jr, RB (12)
• Anthony Hill Jr, LB (10)
• Josiah Trotter, LB (10)
• Lee Hunter, DT (9)
• Keylan Rutledge, OG (6)
• Malachi Fields, WR (5)
• Jadarian Price, RB (4)
• Oscar Delp, TE (4)
• Emmanuel Pregnon, OG (4)
• Max Klare, TE (3)
• A.J. Haulcy, S (3)
• Germie Bernard, WR (3)
• Caleb Banks, DT (3)
• CJ Allen, LB (2)
• Chase Bisontis, OG (2)
• Kaytron Allen, RB (2)
• Kyle Louis, LB (1)
• Treydan Stukes, CB (1)
• Davison Igbinosun, CB (1)
• Gennings Dunker, OG (1) If I am short or over 101, I am sorry. I lost count or counted wrong. But my count says 101! I did lean into my Payton/Paton Fit Score metric that I’ve been blogging about all week, so these are the guys at #62 I’d be most interested in either way. There were a few unlikely ones here where guys fell to 62 somehow, but I would doubt that happens on draft day. I would say the Broncos “six players” they are looking at could be the top six on this list. All of them align highly on the PPFS scale system and all of them appear to likely be going around that 62nd spot. Who would be your pick from this list?