The NFL is unlikely to secure new TV deals with its primary partners before the 2029-30 opt-outs. Currently, only CBS has engaged in formal negotiations, while other partners like Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video have not yet started discussions.
Key points
NFL unlikely to secure new TV deals before 2029-30 opt-outs
Only CBS has engaged in formal negotiations
No talks have occurred with Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video
Analysts believe no new deals are available before opt-outs
Negotiations impacted by Skydance's purchase of Paramount
Mentioned in this story
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A FOX Sports tv camera
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
It appears abundantly clear at this point that the NFLâs goals of securing new broadcast agreements with each of its five primary partners before the 2026 season kicks off was a pie-in-the-sky fantasy.
As it stands, the NFL has so far only engaged CBS in any formal talks, mostly due to a change-in-control provision triggered by Skydanceâs purchase of Paramount last summer, which allowed the league to compel CBS to the negotiating table. As for the other partners â Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video â no such talks have occurred.
And thereâs a growing belief, at least among some observers, that there simply are not any new deals to be had prior the the NFLâs opt-out options following the 2029-30 season (or 2030-31 for ESPN).
Andrew Marchand, a sports media reporter for The Athletic, recently expressed his skepticism on the NFLâs early rights renewals during an episode of his Marchand Sports Media podcast with Puckâs John Ourand. Marchand offered compelling reasons why many of the NFLâs current partners are better served by waiting until their opt-out clauses hit at the end of the decade, rather than striking renewals now.
Marchand begins with Prime Video. The Amazon-owned streamer pays about $1 billion per year for its Thursday Night Football package, well below the rate paid by every other NFL broadcast partner. (For reference, NBCâs Sunday Night Football package is the next-most-inexpensive package at around $2 billion per year.) In terms of value, Prime Video might top the list compared to every other NFL broadcaster. Combine that with the fact that it might be the one partner that doesnât need the NFL as much as the NFL needs it, and thereâs little reason for Prime Video to opt for an early renewal.
Q&A
What are the NFL's current TV deal negotiations status?
The NFL has only engaged CBS in formal negotiations, with no talks initiated with other partners like Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video.
Why are analysts skeptical about the NFL securing new TV deals before 2029?
Analysts believe there are no new deals to be had before the NFL's opt-out options following the 2029-30 season, as formal discussions have not progressed with most partners.
Which networks are involved in the NFL's TV deals?
The NFL's primary partners include CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video.
What triggered the formal talks between the NFL and CBS?
The formal talks were triggered by a change-in-control provision due to Skydance's purchase of Paramount, compelling CBS to negotiate with the NFL.
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âI just think if Iâm Amazon, I think theyâre probably just gonna sit it out and say, âWeâll see you in â29,'â Marchand said. âThey have trillions of dollars, they just had a great earnings call, like, why are they in a rush? They have a deal. A dealâs a deal. Why are they in a rush to give the NFL more money? They donât need to. And if they have to pony up in â29-30, they can do that. âŠSo if Iâm Amazon, I donât think Iâm bidding. I donât think Iâm in a rush to give more money. And I think Iâm in a position where I donât have to.â
Ourand agreed. âAmazon is different than the TV networks because Amazon doesnât need their NFL package as much as the TV networks do,â he said.
As for ESPN, Marchand argues that, because the network is already paying the most money for its package (a cool $2.7 billion per year), the network can rightfully demand more out of the NFL.
âIf Iâm ESPN, Iâm paying $2.7 billion, paying the most of anybody, Iâm going to Roger Goodell, Iâm going to [NFL media exec] Hans Schroeder, and Iâm saying, âI want the best package. I should have the best games,'â Marchand said.
Considering ESPN is already paying the most, its opt-out doesnât hit until a year after every other broadcaster, and the NFL now owns a 10% equity stake in the network, thereâs reason to believe ESPN can hold out until 2030-31 for its new deal.
Finally, Marchand goes to Fox. The networkâs CEO Lachlan Murdoch has recently backpedaled on his prior excitement about renewing its NFL deal early, saying publicly he believes Fox is already paying market price for the league. Moreover, Fox and the Murdoch media empire have been one of the primary voices pushing the narrative that taking NFL games off of broadcast television may jeopardize the NFLâs antitrust exemption. Not coincidentally, the Justice Department recently opened an investigation into that very matter.
Then thereâs the fact that Fox is a much smaller company than the other four NFL broadcast partners, and thus less equipped to stomach a massive increase in rights fees, and the network might be more willing to hold out until 2029-30.
âFox is sitting there and they do not want to spend that money,â Marchand said. âYou look at their market cap, it doesnât really make sense for them to spend too much more money.â
âThe sense that Iâm getting is that Fox is willing to say, âWe have you under contract through the out after the â29-30 season, who knows whatâs going to happen with media over the next four years, weâre willing to roll the dice. And we think when it comes time to renegotiate in â29-30, are we going to merge with somebody? Is somebody going to buy us? Or are you really going to be willing to test the antitrust exemptions that are coming from Congress and take our package and possibly give it to a streamer or allow streamers to get more?'â Ourand added. âAnd I think thatâs a bet that Fox seems more willing to make right now.â
Of course, this is all a very fluid situation, and if the NFL lowers its target price enough for networks to be interested in the early renewals, thus eliminating the end-of-decade opt-outs and allowing the current contracts to run to term in the 2033-34 season, that can change the calculus for the networks.
But for now, it appears the NFL is hitting pause and the networks are content to play the hand they were dealt.
