Survey Reveals 15% of Americans Have Bought Prediction Contracts

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Fifteen percent of Americans bought sports event contracts using popular prediction markets, an annual survey released on Monday found.

The 15% figure isn’t that far behind the total percentage of Americans that owned an active sportsbook account, which was cited at 27%.

Key Takeaways

• More than half of men aged 18-49 operate an active sportsbook account.
• Americans believe that prediction platforms should be regulated like sportsbooks.
• An analysis found that approximately 90% of Kalshi’s estimated annualized revenue came from sports contracts.

The Siena Research Institute (SRI) and St. Bonaventure University’s Jandoli School of Communication released the findings of the yearly American Sports Fanship Survey, which included a new focus on the rise of prediction markets.

America is firmly in the middle of a widespread gambling boom. Not only one-in-four Americans, but 52% of American men aged 18-49 admitted to operating active online sportsbook accounts. That’s despite most states imposing a minimum gambling age of 21, suggesting that betting activity begins well before anticipated.

Even with the rise of prediction markets, sportsbooks aren’t in any danger of going out of business. That said, they are facing significantly more competition than they did even one year ago.

Sports event contracts at prediction markets allow users to buy “Yes” and “No” contracts associated with different outcomes, offering a similar service to placing wagers at legal sportsbooks.

According to the survey, 15% of Americans said they had staked a prediction in sports by using Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, or another prediction app. That included 42% of “avid” sports fans and 33% of men aged 18-49, the most prominent sports betting demographic.

The Financial Times previously reported that Kalshi generated $1.3 billion in estimated annualized revenue from sports contracts, which took hold early in the NFL season. That figure represented nearly 20% of sports betting powerhouse DraftKings’ $6.5-6.9 billion in estimated 2026 revenue.

The report also stated that approximately 90% of Kalshi’s estimated annualized revenue was linked to sports contracts.

Sports betting behaviors and beliefs

While the new study highlighted the rise of prediction trading in sports, it also revealed more information on the problematic behaviors and elements exhibited in sports betting.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they bet at least $100 in one 24-hour period, and 60% also said they “chased” a bet, meaning they either wagered more money or submitted more bets than they intended to after suffering a loss.

Similarly, 42% said they felt that they wagered more than they responsibly should have, and 43% said that they felt bad or ashamed after losing a bet. Those numbers were up from the 37% reported for both in 2025.

Twenty-two percent of subjects also said they knew someone who dealt with a sports betting-related problem, up from 15% in 2025.

“The results show that online sports betting remains an active part of life for a significant portion of Americans,” said Don Levy, SRI’s Director. “Since we began asking respondents about online sports betting in 2024, there has been a steady rise in those who say they have an active account – from about one-in-five to now one-in-four – and the share of respondents who bet on these platforms has grown just as much – from seventeen percent of Americans in 2024 to twenty-two percent in 2026. ”

About half of the respondents still believe that sports betting is a fun form of entertainment and should be legal in all 50 states. However, a majority also said that sports betting companies should not be allowed to advertise during games.

Two-thirds of Americans also agreed that college player prop betting exposes student-athletes to potentially harmful situations, while 52% said that the NFL directly limiting specific prop bets through its sports betting partners was a positive.

Should prediction platforms face stricter regulation?

Prediction platforms have grown in spite of strong pushback from state officials, who claim that their sports event contracts represent unlicensed sports betting. Regulated prediction outlets have maintained that as long as they are compliant with their federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission guidelines, they do not need to receive state licensing or comply with their demands.

A vast majority of subjects “strongly” or “somewhat” sided with the states, saying that prediction platforms should be held to the same standards as sportsbooks. That included 73% support from men aged 18-49.

Those wishes do not reflect the current trajectory of the industry. Kalshi last week was granted a temporary restraining order in Arizona, preventing state officials from pursuing criminal charges against the company for failing to abide by its gaming laws.

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