Tale of the Tape: Knicks clear playoff favorites vs. Hawks for a reason

The Knicks’ road to a title goes through Atlanta, but it begins with tipoff in the mecca of basketball.

The Knicks’ first-round playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks begins with a 6 p.m. ET tipoff at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The Knicks are minus-290 favorites to win the series.

Las Vegas isn’t the only entity backing the Knicks. So does the tale of the tape, which clearly favors New York in its first-round matchup against a pesky Hawks team hoping to pull off an upset.

NET RATING

The Knicks finished the season fourth in offensive rating (118.7) and seventh in defensive rating (112.3) and finished the season fifth in total net rating, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.4 points per 100 possessions this season under Brown.

The Hawks ranked 14th in offensive rating (115) and 10th in defensive rating (112.9) ranking 12th in total net rating, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points per 100 possessions this season.

The Knicks accomplished their goal of ranking top-10 on both sides of the floor this season under Brown. They are statistically a better team than the Hawks.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD SINCE KAT TRADE

The Knicks are 5-2 against the Hawks since trading for Karl-Anthony Towns in the summer of 2024. But their two most decisive victories — by 16 and 9-point margins — came last season under Tom Thibodeau. This season, the Knicks went 2-1 against the Hawks, but both victories came via three-point margins. The 12-point loss on Jan. 2 came in a game the Knicks played with Towns sidelined due to injury.

RECORD VS. TOP 10 TEAMS

Excluding the NBA Cup Final, which isn’t used to determine playoff seeding, the Knicks logged a 30-24 record against teams that finished the season in the Top-10 of their respective conference. Against the same level of competition, the Hawks finished 25-30. The Knicks — who performed below their own standard against teams with winning records — beat better teams more often than their first-round playoff opponent.

PERSONNEL CHANGES

Both the Knicks and Hawks made significant personnel decisions year-over-year. The Hawks traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Golden State Warriors for Jonathan Kuminga then ended the Trae Young era in a trade deadline deal with the Washington Wizards for C.J. McCollum and Corey Kispert. The Knicks, after winning 51 games and reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in a quarter-century, fired Thibodeau, conducted an extensive coaching search featuring requests for permission to interview rival head coaches, then settled on Mike Brown as the new voice moving forward.

The Knicks also made roster moves of their own, signing Jordan Clarkson to help resuscitate a bench unit ranking dead-last in scoring last season. The Knicks used their mid-level exception to sign Guerschon Yabusele, then traded Yabusele to the Chicago Bulls as part of a wider deal landing Jose Alvarado.

And yet the continuity factor favors the Knicks, who’ll have eight players from last year’s conference finals trip running it back a second time around this season. The Hawks, meanwhile, have two new starters (Nickeil Alexander-Walker and C.J. McCollum), one of whom was acquired in February.

ALL-STAR AND PLAYOFF APPEARANCES

McCollum has never made an NBA All-Star appearance. Jalen Brunson and Towns have nine such appearances combined. And Jalen Johnson earned his first this season in a breakout year in Atlanta.

The Knicks’ talent advantage over the Hawks could very easily decide this series, and it’s a far wider gap than the playoff seeding might indicate. So will the glaring discrepancy in playoff experience: Brunson, Towns, Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet have more combined playoff games played than the entire Hawks’ roster. The Knicks have played close to 200 more playoff games, and a large chunk of those games came via last season’s conference finals run.

COACHING BATTLE

Quin Snyder took the Atlanta job in 2023 after a successful eight-year run with the Utah Jazz. He amassed a 372-264 regular-season record in Utah and went 21-30 in the playoffs, never reaching the conference finals in the stacked Western Conference. Snyder took the Hawks to the playoffs in his first half-season on the job. The Hawks were eliminated in the Play-In Tournament the following two seasons before finishing sixth in the East this season, and Snyder boasts a 23-34 career playoff record.

Brown has a 50-40 career playoff record and is the coach responsible for ending the Sacramento Kings’ record 16-year playoff drought. His critics, however, tie his postseason success to LeBron James. Brown is 8-11 in the playoffs coaching non-Cleveland Cavaliers teams.

BENCH MOBS

The Hawks rank 17th in bench points per game with an average of 36.6 points coming from their second unit. The Knicks, once again, rank near the bottom, third in reserve buckets ahead of only the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets. They average, however, only five fewer points than the Hawks. That’s 10 more points than the second unit averaged last season under Thibodeau, and the number likely would have been higher had Miles McBride (sports hernia) and Shamet (shoulder) each not missed time due to injury.

The Hawks’ bench received a significant boost when Atlanta traded Porzingis to the Warriors for Kuminga. In seven games with the Hawks, Kuminga is averaging 12.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, though he registered just five points in 22 minutes in the Knicks’ 98-95 victory over the Hawks on April 6.

KEY MATCHUP: TOWNS VS. ONYEKA OKONGWU

Since the trade sending Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a first-round pick to the Timberwolves, Towns is averaging 28.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks on 52% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from 3-point range specifically against the Hawks. That is because the Hawks are undersized — and undermanned — at the five, and Towns, a legitimate 7-footer, is one of the best in the business at scoring from all three levels.

This series has Towns written all over it, provided of course he doesn’t fall victim to the undisciplined fouls and unfavorable officiating that has plagued him since his arrival in the 2024 trade.

The Hawks don’t have an answer on paper for New York’s six-time All-Star big man. But they can play mind games. They can be physical. They can — and will — try everything under the sun to rattle the Big KAT and force the Knicks away from their biggest advantage in the series.