The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Could Define the Wizards’ History

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A person watches the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

50 wins in the last three seasons. That’s all the Washington Wizards have to show since fully embracing the tank in 2023-24.

The last time Washington appeared in a playoff series was in 2021, when a Wizards team led by Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal fell to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. The two years that followed were spent chasing that brief glimpse of relevance.

Once General Manager Will Dawkins and President Michael Winger took the reins in 2023, Washington instilled a future-first philosophy, dismantling its roster. In the three years since, the Wizards have perfected the art of losing.

In the process, they’ve assembled a young group of promising players through draft picks. These players include Alex Sarr, Will Riley, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson, who have already shown lots of potential.

Then came the shift. The Wizards acquired Trae Young and Anthony Davis without mortgaging their future, signaling the end of the agonizing fall. However, one puzzle piece is missing.

The Wizards are on the brink of their resurrection, and in a loaded draft class, their resurgence all banks on where the ping pong balls fall. The draft lottery is less than a month away, and it’s the day that will determine if the pain of the last three seasons was worth it.

The Best-Case Scenario

The last time the Wizards were awarded the No. 1 overall pick was in 2010, when they selected John Wall.

The tenth of May will prove just as consequential. This year’s class is regarded as one of the strongest in years, with names like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer topping mock boards. If Washington lucks out and lands the first overall pick, it would be a franchise-altering moment.

Most experts name Dybantsa as the jackpot. The BYU forward is modern basketball’s dream. At 6-foot-9, he has the speed and agility of someone six inches shorter. He also possesses the physicality and motor to attack the rim at will.

Dybantsa would immediately be one of Washington’s best scorers, and maybe even its most versatile defender. His length and energy on that end could offset what Young can’t supply. And while the nation’s leading scorer isn’t a sniper at 33.1% from three, Young’s passing could raise that number in turn.

Dybantsa’s long strides to the rim and comfort in the mid-range reflect that of a veteran. With his upside, he would be the best first choice.

The Second-Best-Case Scenario(s)

Not being rewarded with the first selection after an 82-game struggle would be a kick to the gut. Regardless, it’s hard to go wrong with a high pick this year. In a reality where the Wizards pick second or third, Boozer and Peterson are appealing choices.

Boozer was the Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year, and he earned that title through footwork and intelligence. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound big man averaged 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on 55.6% shooting. On the offensive side, he provides more than most lottery bigs. He combines passing, ready hands, and shooting touch with 39.1% from downtown.

Matching him with Anthony Davis would create a strong frontcourt, with Davis anchoring the defense while Boozer develops on that side of the floor.

Peterson, meanwhile, is perhaps the best pure scorer in the class. His three-level scoring and ability to hit from almost anywhere on the court make him incredibly challenging to guard. Peterson’s leaping ability and confidence on pull-ups draw natural comparisons to Donovan Mitchell.

He drills over 38% of his threes, which could assist an uninspired shooting team in Washington. A trio of Young, Johnson, and Peterson would produce offensive numbers the District hasn’t seen in years.

The concern, though, is his availability. The freshman played just 24 games and has battled through bizarre injuries, leading to the takeover of questions regarding his commitment. No organization is eager to bet on an injury-prone player, but given that his ceiling may be the highest of the class, the pros just might outweigh the cons.

The Worst-Case Scenario

With the worst record in the NBA, the Wizards won this year’s infamous tank battle and locked themselves into a top-five pick. However, the 47.9 percent chance their pick falls to that five spot still looms.

This is where the season of 30-point losses and empty home arenas ends as a lost cause. They fell victim to a similar fate in last year’s draft lottery, when they owned the second-best odds and received the sixth pick—the lowest possible slot.

That represents the intentional uncertainty of the lottery system. Teams could end up like Washington and depressingly fall. Or they could end up like Dallas last year and miraculously climb.

However, even in the event of this doomsday outcome, the leftovers are still appetizing.

The Leftovers

Illinois guard Keaton Wagler has surged up draft boards. As a point guard, he is blessed with a height advantage at 6-foot-6, and he is never afraid to shoot.

Wagler didn’t play his best ball in Illinois’ Final Four loss to Connecticut, as he shot 20 percent from three. But his smooth off-the-dribble scoring, whether on drives or stepbacks, has allowed him to terrorize top competition. While his defense at the next level is still a question mark, he’ll have teammates his size to learn from.

Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., though, may have been the best point guard in the tournament. He showed his relentlessness and drive at all three levels and put it on full display in the Razorbacks’ Sweet 16 run. Through the regular season, he recorded 23.5 points and 6.4 assists per game on a ridiculous 44 percent from range.

His efficiency, along with his passing and ball security, make him an incredible value if the Wizards do fall in the lottery. While Washington may be hesitant to couple 6-foot-3 Acuff with Young, their minutes could be scattered. Simply put, Acuff’s consistency is hard to pass on, and he would be the man for the job at five.

Even in this worst-case scenario, Washington can take home contributors. But it wouldn’t be the same.

One Last Step in the Rebuild

In the NBA, tanking is a calculated descent aimed at producing an eventual ascension. Washington’s fall has followed the typical blueprint: drafting, developing, and above all, losing. The Wizards are now the first team to lose at least 64 games in three consecutive seasons.

A lifeline in Young and Davis accelerated a timeline that once felt distant. The stars are aligning, but what comes next matters most. Landing the top pick in this year’s draft would validate all that Washington put themselves through.

It’s not just about a rookie player, though. It’s about the philosophy of the front office, the patience of the fans, and whether the rebuild delivers on its promise.

With the pieces coming together, the Wizards are on the edge of their climb out of basketball purgatory. They’re knocking on the door. That’s what makes May 10th so significant.

All that’s left is a game of chance.

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