The Kentucky Derby favorite hasn't won since 2018, with longshots dominating recent races. Notably, Donerail won at 91-1 odds in 1913, a record that still stands.
Key points
The Kentucky Derby favorite hasn't won since 2018
Longshots have dominated recent races
Donerail won in 1913 at 91-1 odds
Sovereignty won last year at 7-1 odds
Great White is a 50-1 longshot for the upcoming race
DonerailSovereigntyGreat WhiteKentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby favorite hasnât won since Justify in 2018. Last year, Sovereignty was at 7-1 odds and rallied from the back of the pack on a sloppy track to run down favorite Journalism. That wasnât even close to the biggest longshot to win this race.
With Great White going off at 50-1 on Saturday, historyâs money is on the longshots. Here is a look at the five biggest upsets the Run for the Roses has ever produced.
Donerail, 1913
ODDS: 91-1
The record has stood for 113 years and might never fall. Donerail walked about three miles on dirt and cobblestone to reach the track that morning. He was stabled at a separate facility that day because Churchill Downs was overcrowded. Owner Thomas P. Hayes was just looking for a piece of the purse, hoping to finish in the top five. Instead, jockey Roscoe Goose kept Donerail off the pace letting the favorites Ten Point and Foundation race out front. In the final stretch, Goose let Donerail loose and he flew past the favorites to win by half a length.
The $2 win ticket paid $184.90. It is still the largest payout in Derby history.
Rich Strike, 2022
ODDS: 80-1
Added to the field as an alternate the day before the race when Ethereal Road was scratched, Rich Strike came in at 80-1 odds. He started outside, post 20, as jockey Sonny Leon moved him into 15th within the first mile. Rich Strike and Leon threaded through traffic to move to the inside rail. From there, they ran down the 4-1 favorite Epicenter to get Rich Strikeâs first ever graded-stakes win.
The $2 ticket paid off $132.40.
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Q&A
What is the history of favorites losing at the Kentucky Derby?
Since Justify won in 2018, no favorite has claimed victory at the Kentucky Derby, highlighting a trend favoring longshots.
Who won the Kentucky Derby in 1913 and what were the odds?
Donerail won the Kentucky Derby in 1913 with odds of 91-1, a record that remains unbroken.
What are some notable longshot winners in Kentucky Derby history?
Some notable longshot winners include Donerail in 1913 and Sovereignty in 2022, who won at 7-1 odds.
How often do longshots win the Kentucky Derby?
Longshots have frequently won the Kentucky Derby, with recent races showing a clear trend against the favorites.
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St. Elizabeth Catholic Charities celebrates as they cross the finish line at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Bed Races held at Broadbent Arena Monday evening, April 27, 2026.
Flowers in the Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, a week before the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby, on April 24, 2026.
John King and his daughter, Ghauni, 4, watch as the first hot air balloons lift at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Balloon Glow Thursday night at Waterfront Park on April 23, 2026.
Levi Shank, left, and Amanda Regier run in costume following the start of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Festival Marathon and mini Marathon on Saturday, April 25, 2026 in Louisville Kentucky.
The Japanese team of Wonder Dean celebrated their horse's No. 10 post position after the 2026 Kentucky Derby Draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25, 2026.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Fulleffort, trained by Brad Cox, was ridden by Edvin Vargas during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Fulleffort has seven career races with three wins, two second-place finishes and one third-place finish.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Silent Tactic during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Silent Tactic is trained by Mark Casse.
The Shady Rays balloon lifts off as hot air balloons take flight at Bowman Field for the KDF Great BalloonFest Rush Hour Race in Louisville on April 24, 2026.
People gathered around to see the Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses arrive at the main gap during morning training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 28, 2026.
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Spectators line East Broadway to catch a glimpse of the floats during the Zoeller Pump Company Pegasus Parade in Louisville, Kentucky, Sunday, April 26, 2026.
The trophy given to the winner of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25.
2026 Kentucky Derby trainer Todd Pletcher on the backside watching his horses work out at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on April 27, 2028. Pletcher has 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Renegade.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse and favorite Renegade getting bathed after working at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.
A crowd gathers on the backside at sunrise during Dawn at the Downs at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Veteran jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith, who will pilot 2026 Kentucky Derby hopeful So Happy, on April 24, 2026.
A unicylcist waves to the crowd during the 2026 Pegasus Parade on Broadway Avenue in Louisville, Kentucky, on Sunday, April 26, 2026.
A crowd gathers to watch as 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Six Speed walks in circles before the special training time for Derby and Oaks horses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 24, 2026. The horse is trained by Bhupat Seamer.
1 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
1 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
2 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
St. Elizabeth Catholic Charities celebrates as they cross the finish line at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Bed Races held at Broadbent Arena Monday evening, April 27, 2026.
3 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Flowers in the Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, a week before the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby, on April 24, 2026.
4 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
John King and his daughter, Ghauni, 4, watch as the first hot air balloons lift at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Balloon Glow Thursday night at Waterfront Park on April 23, 2026.
5 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Levi Shank, left, and Amanda Regier run in costume following the start of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Festival Marathon and mini Marathon on Saturday, April 25, 2026 in Louisville Kentucky.
6 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The Japanese team of Wonder Dean celebrated their horse's No. 10 post position after the 2026 Kentucky Derby Draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25, 2026.
7 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Fulleffort, trained by Brad Cox, was ridden by Edvin Vargas during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Fulleffort has seven career races with three wins, two second-place finishes and one third-place finish.
8 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Silent Tactic during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Silent Tactic is trained by Mark Casse.
9 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The Shady Rays balloon lifts off as hot air balloons take flight at Bowman Field for the KDF Great BalloonFest Rush Hour Race in Louisville on April 24, 2026.
10 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
People gathered around to see the Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses arrive at the main gap during morning training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 28, 2026.
11 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
12 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Spectators line East Broadway to catch a glimpse of the floats during the Zoeller Pump Company Pegasus Parade in Louisville, Kentucky, Sunday, April 26, 2026.
13 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The trophy given to the winner of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25.
14 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby trainer Todd Pletcher on the backside watching his horses work out at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on April 27, 2028. Pletcher has 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Renegade.
15 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse and favorite Renegade getting bathed after working at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.
16 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A crowd gathers on the backside at sunrise during Dawn at the Downs at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
17 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Veteran jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith, who will pilot 2026 Kentucky Derby hopeful So Happy, on April 24, 2026.
18 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A unicylcist waves to the crowd during the 2026 Pegasus Parade on Broadway Avenue in Louisville, Kentucky, on Sunday, April 26, 2026.
19 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A crowd gathers to watch as 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Six Speed walks in circles before the special training time for Derby and Oaks horses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 24, 2026. The horse is trained by Bhupat Seamer.
Country House, 2019
ODDS: 65-1
This might be the most unlikely Derby history in modern history, because he didnât cross the finish line first. Maximum Security did and then was disqualified. After a 22-minute conference at the end of the race, Maximum Security was stripped of the win when the race's stewards determined that he had caused a chain-reaction of interference in the stretch. Country House had won just one race in six career starts before claiming the Derby roses.
AÂ $2 ticket on him to win paid out $132.40
