The NFL’s schedule release is more than just a list

Before we get started, yes, it is ridiculous that the NFL turns the RELEASE of the SCHEDULE into some big hairy deal that you will watch on TV. In the universal perspective, nothing could be more banal than the release of a list that is already made and out there! However…

The NFL schedule is in fact different, because compared to all other sports, the schedule matters VERY much. An absurd amount! The schedule in the NFL is, to a very large extent, rigging the game. Yes, in baseball some teams have fewer long stretches without off days than others. In basketball some teams have more back-to-backs than others. But the NFL? It’s BONKERS.

I’m not even sure it’s possible to quantify just how different a schedule the Cleveland Browns will play in 2026 compared to the Miami Dolphins. In 2025, the Browns went 5-12 and were outscored by 100 points while the Dolphins were 7-10 and were outscored by 77 points. They’re really not that different, yet this upcoming season, the poor Dolphins will face the second most difficult schedule in the league by opposing winning percentage last year (.542, just behind the Chicago Bears at .550). They will also travel an insane 27,980 miles, the sixth most in football, despite not having an international game. That hardly seems fair, and if the Dolphins were to somehow outperform the Browns this season, who play the league’s easiest schedule (.429) and travel the second fewest miles (9,073), it will be quite the feat.

International games are murder on your travel schedule of course, and the league has at least announced those already. The Jaguars will be taking it on the chin as usual with two games in London (though they’re at least back-to-back). Even worse are the 49ers, who have the worst travel schedule this year and probably in league history, as they will cover 38,105 miles including their games in Mexico City and Australia. The circumference of the earth is only 24,901 miles, by the way. The Rams, Ravens, Cowboys, Colts, Commanders, Eagles, Texans, Steelers, Saints, Bengals, Falcons, Patriots, Lions, and Vikings will also play internationally, meaning that half of the teams in the league will be playing at least one game outside of the US.

And travel and strength of schedule are only a few of the ways in which the league can drastically impact a team’s performance. We already know the opponents and travel, but as the NFL continues to push boundaries, Wednesday games are now on the table, with the Packers and Rams scheduled to play on the day before Thanksgiving. Thursday games have been around for a while now, and the consensus seems to be that they are generally of lower quality. I am sure that, whether or not injuries are more common on Thursday, players hate them, as it really and truly does take multiple days to recover from playing in an NFL game. And now we’re doing Wednesday!

The number of short weeks, rest, mini-byes, the actual bye, and time of the year facing northern and Florida-based opponents all have an insane impact on how good a team can actually be. And so, I get it, even though it’s really and truly just the release of a list. It’s also the NFL’s major announcement of how they intend to play Football God this year, and how much, and how maliciously.

Over a Major League Baseball season’s 162 games, things really do tend to even out. There’s only so much damage the schedule can do. But in football, NOTHING evens out. The sample size is ridiculously small, and everything about the schedule has a massive impact on team success or failure. They can throw Thursdays and Monday Nights and weird holidays at you. They can make you fly anywhere. They can screw with you in myriad ways. It’s not exactly the Hunger Games, but every year it gets just a bit closer.

And you love it.